By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Following is a collection of views expressed by ECB Governing Council members on various topics of high relevance related to next week’s meeting and the further evolution of monetary policy:

Rate hikes amid Iran conflict:

  • Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
    11 March 2026
    “If there are concerns that this supply shock, the rise in fuel prices due to geopolitical reasons, will start to take root and also raise inflation expectations, then intervention by raising rates will be necessary.”
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    11 March 2026
    “Given the situation today, I do not believe that we must raise rates now. But we will not let inflation settle in.”
  • Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    11 March 2026
    “We must be very vigilant. If it becomes apparent that the current energy price increases will translate into broad consumer price inflation in the medium term, the Governing Council of the ECB will act decisively in a timely manner.”
  • Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
    11 March 2026
    “I’d say a reaction by the ECB is potentially closer than many people think. I don’t want to speculate about April or June. But we will be ready to act if needed … I have no reservation against hiking without new forecasts. What’s clear is that considerations on further cuts are definitely off the table now.”
  • Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
    10 March 2026
    “It’s perhaps fair to say at this point that even if we shouldn’t rush into a decision, the probability of the next change in the policy rates now being more towards an increase rather than the opposite has probably gone up in the last couple of weeks.”
  • Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
    6 March 2026
    “I honestly don’t know [if markets are getting ahead of themselves by pricing in a small chance of a hike in 2026]. It very much depends on how things will unfold.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    6 March 2026
    “I would not speculate about interest rate decisions at this stage.”
  • José Luis Escrivá (Banco de España)
    6 March 2026
    “But if you ask me now, based on the information I currently have, I think it is very unlikely that we will change interest rates at the next meeting. That is simply not how we usually make decisions.”
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    5 March 2026
    “I don’t see any reason today why we should raise interest rates.”

 

Calls not to rush amid Iran conflict:

  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    11 March 2026
    The ECB “must remain calm” and “obviously not give in to haste.”
  • Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    11 March 2026
    The ECB should apply a “wait-and-see approach.”
  • Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
    11 March 2026
    “For the time being, we need to stay calm.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    10 March 2026
    “We won’t rush into a decision because there is too much uncertainty, too much volatility.”
  • Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
    10 March 2026
    The ECB should “stay calm and thinking about things with cold brains.”
  • Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
    10 March 2026
    “[W]e shouldn't rush into any decisions. We should first see if this increase in energy prices that we now are experiencing turns out to be transitory or not, as it was the second case last time.”
  • Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
    10 March 2026
    “That is also very clear to the European Central Bank: it is better to be cautious than premature. It is important not to act hastily, but to think carefully, consider the different scenarios, and at the same time wait to see how the situation develops. Those who act rashly usually end up making poor decisions.”
  • Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
    6 March 2026
    “Given that we’re only talking about days still, it is too early to say what this will mean for the economy or monetary policy in the long run.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    5 March 2026
    “I think we need to keep a cool head and avoid excessively hasty conclusions, especially in a sense that this kind of crisis, by experience, tends to have both supply-side and demand-side effects.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    5 March 2026
    “I think my advice in front of the mirror for the Governing Council meeting is to keep a cool head, maintain a steady hand and do not make hasty conclusions about the current situation.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    5 March 2026
    The ECB should “keep a cool head amid this turbulence.”
  • Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    5 March 2026
    “We strongly discourage anybody from determining what would happen at a too early stage because I don’t think that would be helpful.”
  • Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    5 March 2026
    It is “very early” to react to the conflict, the outlook could become “much clearer” by the time of the March monetary policy meeting.
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    4 March 2026
    “[I]t is important to keep a cool head when assessing the economic impact and not jump to conclusions about monetary policy based solely on immediate market movements.”
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    3 March 2026
    It “would be a mistake to rush into predicting a possible change in interest rates today.”
  • Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
    3 March 2026
    The Governing Council “should not rush” to adjust monetary policy, and should remain vigilant, closely monitoring developments.
  • Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
    2 March 2026
    It is “far, far too early to come to conclusions” about the unfolding situation.
  • Pierre Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)
    2 March 2026
    Should not “rush” to react to the recent energy price movements, the ECB must “assess” the situation.

 

Duration of the Iran conflict:

  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    6 March 2026
    “[H]istorically, conflicts like this often last longer than expected. It is easier to start a war than to end one.”
  • Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    5 March 2026
    “As for monetary policy, the crucial factor is whether these are temporary supply shocks we should see through. If the conflict comes to a swift end and a political agreement is reached and there is at most minimal damage to the infrastructure in the region, then energy prices could soon fall again.”
  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    5 March 2026
    “The first one [potential scenario about the Iran conflict] is the baseline, that this is going to be short-lived, and the other one is that [it] is going to be longer.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    5 March 2026
    “I don’t think we should be overly optimistic” about the duration of the conflict.

 

Escalation of the Iran conflict:

  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    5 March 2026
    “We’ve seen already quite some escalation.”

 

Impact of the Iran conflict on inflation:

  • Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
    11 March 2026
    “If more [oil] plants are blown up, the impact will be more lasting and painful” … In a moderate impact scenario, inflation could rise slightly.
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    11 March 2026
    “So, the direction of this crisis is unfortunately clearer as the days go by. Economically, that means a little more inflation and a little less growth … Inflation in France is clearly lower than among our European neighbors and could be slightly raised, I insist on slightly … we are not at all in an inflation that is running away.”
  • Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    11 March 2026
    It is “still too early” to assess the medium- to long-term impact of this situation on the outlook.
  • Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
    11 March 2026
    “Businesses still remember the inflation years and will likely pass through higher costs much more quickly to consumers than in 2022. And people will ask for higher wages more quickly than in the past.”
  • Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
    10 March 2026
    “Of course, I am aware of the change of the market perceptions, and of course if things would last, spread and go deeper, it will have implications not only on inflation, but also on the general economic situation not only in the Middle East region, but also wider for Europe.”
  • Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
    10 March 2026
    “[I]f current market expectations about prices – meaning that [energy] prices remain elevated for some time but decline again over the course of the year – materialize as we currently assume, then we would expect growth in 2026 to be a quarter of a percentage point lower than without this development and inflation to be about half a percentage point higher in Austria. That is the scenario on the basis of current market expectations. Should the energy prices remain longer at the current level, so until the end of the year, then growth could become lower by half a percentage point and inflation increase by 1 percentage point.”
  • Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
    6 March 2026
    “[T]he recent spike in energy prices following the tensions in Iran makes the inflation path more uncertain … In particular, we must carefully monitor the persistence of the energy price shock, its impact on inflation expectations and any indication that firms start passing through higher input costs to their customers … Of course, if it [the energy price shock due to the war in Iran] turns out to be more persistent, we would be more worried … Of course, if there is an energy price shock, it’s unavoidable that in the short term you have deviations from target. There’s nothing monetary policy can do about it.”
  • Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
    6 March 2026
    “That [net inflationary impact] very much depends on what are the scenarios that we're talking about. There’s also a third factor here, which is the exchange rate, as we’ve seen a dollar appreciation lately. So, I think you have to take all those factors into account. And it also very much depends again how things evolve, to what extent there will also be serious disruption to supply chains, etc. In some scenarios the inflation impact is going to be large and in other scenarios the growth hit is going to be quite large.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    6 March 2026
    “If the Strait were effectively blocked for weeks or months, the impact on oil prices-and therefore inflation and growth-would probably be significant … Supply disruptions would create upside risks to inflation, especially in the short term.”
  • José Luis Escrivá (Banco de España)
    6 March 2026
    “I think we can assume that with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the rise in oil prices—even if the situation were later reversed—it would still take several months for things to return to normal. Gas prices are already rising and the impact in Asia is already significant. So some effects are already unavoidable. If the situation were reversed quickly, the impact on prices on a day-to-day basis would probably amount to only a few tenths of a percentage point, not much more … If you have a supply shock, on the one hand you have a direct increase in oil and commodity prices that can push inflation up, but if at the same time there is a reduction in demand, that works in the opposite direction and may offset the impact on prices.”
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    5 March 2026
    The conflict could be inflationary but also have a downward effect on growth, this will depend on the duration of tensions.
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    5 March 2026
    “There is a restriction of supply and that is likely to raise inflation at least in the short term.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    5 March 2026
    “Concerning inflation, you have both supply-side effects and demand-side effects. What I mean is that this conflict will disrupt supply and that is an upside risk for inflation, on the other hand it is dampening demand and that is somewhat weakening inflation.”
  • Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    5 March 2026
    “[I]t looks like the short-term impact, but pretty much again is dependent on the duration of the war, is more on the inflation side, because there is more momentum for Germany on the growth side. So, at the moment there is more impact coming on the inflation front in relation to what I see on the real economy side but again we have to wait.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    4 March 2026
    “The key to the economic impact is how long the war in Iran lasts and how widely the conflict in the Middle East spreads. This will determine how widely it will affect global supply chains and, on the other hand, uncertainty and overall demand. The conflict will therefore have both supply-limiting and demand-suppressing effects. Short disruptions may be tolerable, but a prolonged blockage in the Strait of Hormuz would hit the global economy harder than what was experienced during the 12-day war last year. Both scenarios need to be prepared for.”
  • Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
    3 March 2026
    “Its impact on inflation and output depends on the duration and the depth of the armed conflict.”
  • Philip Lane (ECB)
    3 March 2026
    “Directionally, a jump in energy prices puts upward pressure on inflation, especially in the near term, and such a conflict would be negative for economic activity. The scale of the impact and the implications for medium-term inflation depend on the breadth and duration of the conflict. The ECB will be closely monitoring developments.”

 

Impact of the Iran conflict on economic growth:

  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    11 March 2026
    The Iran conflict will “a priori” hurt economic growth.
  • Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
    11 March 2026
    “Economic growth, which was gradually gaining momentum, will slow down again, but it's not about minuses, but lower pluses.”
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    11 March 2026
    “So, the direction of this crisis is unfortunately clearer as the days go by. Economically, that means a little more inflation and a little less growth … I sometimes read the word stagflation. Because it is not the stagnation of economic activity, we are going to keep growth. We are not in an economic crisis if you understand it by economic recession. Once again, growth will remain positive and we are not at all in an inflation that is running away.”
  • Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    11 March 2026
    It is “still too early” to assess the medium- to long-term impact of this situation on the outlook.
  • Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
    11 March 2026
    I am “quite optimistic on growth” and “not too worried” about stagflation.
  • Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
    10 March 2026
    “[I]f current market expectations about prices – meaning that [energy] prices remain elevated for some time but decline again over the course of the year – materialize as we currently assume, then we would expect growth in 2026 to be a quarter of a percentage point lower than without this development and inflation to be about half a percentage point higher in Austria. That is the scenario on the basis of current market expectations. Should the energy prices remain longer at the current level, so until the end of the year, then growth could become lower by half a percentage point and inflation increase by 1 percentage point … I see no recession for Austria or the Eurozone at the moment.”
  • Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
    6 March 2026
    “That [net inflationary impact] very much depends on what are the scenarios that we're talking about. There’s also a third factor here, which is the exchange rate, as we’ve seen a dollar appreciation lately. So, I think you have to take all those factors into account. And it also very much depends again how things evolve, to what extent there will also be serious disruption to supply chains, etc. In some scenarios the inflation impact is going to be large and in other scenarios the growth hit is going to be quite large.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    6 March 2026
    “If the Strait were effectively blocked for weeks or months, the impact on oil prices—and therefore inflation and growth—would probably be significant … weaker demand would weigh on growth … It is fairly clear that the Iran conflict and its economic consequences are damaging global growth.”
  • José Luis Escrivá (Banco de España)
    6 March 2026
    “It certainly has the potential to negatively affect the global economy, there is no doubt about that. The effects it is already having on the price of fossil fuels are significant, and we should not overlook the impact it could have on the confidence of economic agents. It is also true that its impact will depend greatly on how long it lasts, and that is very difficult to anticipate.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    5 March 2026
    “[W]e are likely to see also demand-side consequences. So, this kind of conflict tends to dampen demand. And from the European point of view, that means basically some effect towards more subdued economic growth.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    5 March 2026
    “Concerning growth, it will likely have a dampening effect on demand, that’s the experience from previous energy shocks or from the COVID-19 shock.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    4 March 2026
    “Geopolitical crises not only affect oil prices, but if they continue, they also have significant implications for global uncertainty and international trade … The key to the economic impact is how long the war in Iran lasts and how widely the conflict in the Middle East spreads. This will determine how widely it will affect global supply chains and, on the other hand, uncertainty and overall demand. The conflict will therefore have both supply-limiting and demand-suppressing effects. Short disruptions may be tolerable, but a prolonged blockage in the Strait of Hormuz would hit the global economy harder than what was experienced during the 12-day war last year. Both scenarios need to be prepared for.”
  • Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
    3 March 2026
    “Its impact on inflation and output depends on the duration and the depth of the armed conflict.”
  • Philip Lane (ECB)
    3 March 2026
    “Directionally, a jump in energy prices puts upward pressure on inflation, especially in the near term, and such a conflict would be negative for economic activity. The scale of the impact and the implications for medium-term inflation depend on the breadth and duration of the conflict. The ECB will be closely monitoring developments.”

 

Comparisons of the recent oil price surge with inflation spike in 2022:

  • Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
    11 March 2026
    The impact of the Iran war on inflation will certainly not be as noticeable as in the case of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when inflation increased by as much as 20%.
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    11 March 2026
    “One of the differences with the shock of the Russian war in Ukraine in 2022 is that at the time all the prices of raw materials had risen. Today, it is nevertheless concentrated on energy, namely oil and gas.”
  • Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
    11 March 2026
    “Businesses still remember the inflation years and will likely pass through higher costs much more quickly to consumers than in 2022. And people will ask for higher wages more quickly than in the past.”
  • Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
    10 March 2026
    “It is clear that the environment for monetary policy has changed. I understand that due to the experiences of past years, particular caution is called for.”
  • Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
    6 March 2026
    “I understand why people are trying to make the comparison with 2021/2022. But we should be quite careful in making such comparison because the situation is different. The nature of the shock is different. Monetary policy is in a neutral setting now, which wasn’t the case back then. There was also the reopening of the economy after the pandemic, in combination with accommodating fiscal policies, pushing up demand. So even before the supply shock, underlying inflation was already building up from the demand side … But as I said, we should be careful in making these comparisons because we are clearly not in the same situation.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    5 March 2026
    “This time, so far the surge in gas prices or oil prices has been less dramatic so far compared to Russia’s invasion. But the situation is very turbulent obviously and we have to be now closely monitoring all these developments.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    4 March 2026
    “[T]he situation is somewhat different now: economic growth is slower and security and trade tensions are even stronger.”

 

Market reaction to the Iran conflict:

  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    11 March 2026
    “For the moment, we have not seen any situation of liquidity problems in any of the markets, but there is a potential risk that we have to analyze.”
  • Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
    6 March 2026
    “[W]hat you’re seeing in terms of market reaction seems to be more or less aligned with what you would expect in an economics textbook.”
  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    5 March 2026
    Financial markets have so far evolved in an “orderly” way.


Ready to act/agile:

  • Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
    11 March 2026
    “I’d say a reaction by the ECB is potentially closer than many people think. I don’t want to speculate about April or June. But we will be ready to act if needed” … ECB should be ready to react “more quickly” if needed and has to be “agile.”
  • Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
    10 March 2026
    “[T]he ECB is prepared to react quickly and also clearly.”
  • Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
    5 March 2026
    “The status quo means that if one of these risks materializes—and we could talk at length about which risks these are, whether an escalation of trade conflicts, the escalation of conflict in the Middle East as we speak, or other conflicts somewhere in the world that are relevant for the global economy, and so on—then it may become necessary to calmly reassess the situation and react very quickly, because the inflation outlook could then change significantly.”
  • Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
    2 March 2026
    “In times where we really have high levels of uncertainty, it’s important to be in a situation where you can act quickly.”
  • Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    1 March 2026
    “With the current level of key interest rates, we are in a good position. At the same time, we stand ready to adjust our monetary policy stance in any direction whenever it becomes necessary.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    26 February 2026
    “And when we say that we are in a good place but agile, that’s really what we mean. We have to be attentive to all these developments, their consequences and the monitoring that we can do of it.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    23 February 2026
    “I very strongly believe that we are in that good place, which combined with our key principles, which is to be relying very much on the data and multiple data on many accounts, and the fact that we are not on a preset course and that we will decide meeting by meeting, each and every step of the way we have to assess whether we are in that good place that I am characterizing now, which was a result also implies that we have to be agile and determine whether something needs to be done.”
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    18 February 2026
    “But while our monetary policy is well positioned, it cannot and should not be static. It must remain guided by agile pragmatism, informed by data and forecasts.”
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    10 February 2026
    “The downside risks to price developments now seem to me to be a little stronger than the upside risks. I therefore defend more than ever an agile pragmatism in terms of rates.”
  • José Luis Escrivá (Banco de España)
    6 February 2026
    “[W]e are operating in a very complex international environment marked by a high degree of uncertainty, and at the same time we need to remain agile in case developments emerge that alter the inflation outlook in either direction.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    6 February 2026
    “We must all be prepared for the fact that geopolitical developments may still bring new surprises. We must be ready to react to them.”

 

Full optionality/flexibility:

  • Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
    10 March 2026
    “It is clear that the current stance of the European Central Bank — communicating that it can react at any time, with full optionality in both directions, and with the determination to decide on the basis of incoming data at every meeting — is the appropriate approach for the current situation.”
  • Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
    5 March 2026
    “Given the great uncertainty we face overall—geopolitical tensions, trade conflicts, and so on—full optionality, meaning no prior commitment to a particular rate path, is the better policy. It signals more clearly that we remain data-dependent than if we were to say in advance what might happen—whether rates go up, stay where they are, or come down again. … The best thing we can do is remain as flexible as possible should it become necessary to intervene.”
  • Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
    2 March 2026
    “When you are at the end, or very close to the end, of this easing cycle that we have been following, then it’s always difficult to say what happens next.”
  • Boris Vujčić (Croatian National Bank)
    25 February 2026
    “[A]lthough inflation is back at our medium-term target, the overall economic and geopolitical environment leaves no room for complacency.”
  • Fabio Panetta (Banca d’Italia)
    21 February 2026
    “Faced with risks pointing in opposite directions, monetary policy must keep a flexible approach, anchored to the medium-term outlook and based on a comprehensive assessment of the data and their implications for inflation and growth. The March projections will provide the ECB Governing Council with additional elements to guide decisions in the coming months.”
  • Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
    19 February 2026
    “Full optionality means all options, and it could go in either direction. It does not mean that interest rates are necessarily going up. There could be downside surprises to inflation, and if that leads to a change in the medium-term projections—for example, if inflation remains consistently below 2%—then there could be arguments for another rate cut.”
  • Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
    9 February 2026
    The “probabilities that the next rate decision would be a hike or a cut are the same – it’s 50/50.”
  • Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
    6 February 2026
    “It is therefore important not to pre-commit to an interest rate path. This allows us to be flexible, to respond [to] events that could cause inflation to deviate persistently from our target in either direction.”
  • Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
    6 February 2026
    The ECB should keep a meeting-by-meeting approach with “full optionality.”

 

Steadiness:

  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    4 March 2026
    “Ultimately, the biggest challenge for economic policy today is not a single forecast or policy action. It is the unpredictability of the operating environment, which weakens the predictability of decision-making and tests the credibility of institutions. This is precisely why a steady hand and long-term policy are needed.”
  • Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
    19 February 2026
    “I don’t see much scope for any change in interest rates for quite some time if things stay as they are.”
  • Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    11 February 2026
    “I will not join those who try to forecast the next move. I see merit in the position we have taken over the past couple of months, which has been to stay where we are. I’m okay with the current level of interest rates.”
  • Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
    11 February 2026
    The ECB is not in a “holding pattern.”
  • Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
    6 February 2026
    “For me, our data-dependent approach calls for patience rather than action at this stage.”

 

New moves:

  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    5 March 2026
    There is “no preset pace for our monetary policy.”
  • Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
    19 February 2026
    There is a “slightly higher” chance that the next rate move will be down rather than up.
  • Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
    19 February 2026
    “If inflation remains consistently below 2%, then there could be arguments for another rate cut … At the current juncture, I really don’t expect any change in interest rates unless the projections change materially, especially for the medium term. If that happens, then yes, we would need to reassess the stance.”
  • Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
    9 February 2026
    “I think we would need a change in the environment to actually change the policy stance. At the moment, the policy stance is compatible and in line with our objective.”
  • Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
    9 February 2026
    “Looking forward, it would take a major departure from our baseline scenario for me to consider recalibrating the policy setting. For now, the baseline holds.”
  • Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
    6 February 2026
    “We therefore continue to assess at each meeting whether an adjustment of the interest rate is necessary.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    6 February 2026
    “We will ensure that inflation is stabilized around this aim over the medium term. Therefore, any changes in the key interest rates in the future, if justified, are not excluded.”

 

Good place:

  • Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
    6 March 2026
    “With inflation projected to be at our target over the medium term and inflation expectations anchored, monetary policy remains in a good place. But we cannot be complacent. We need to be vigilant as the current geopolitical and macroeconomic environment creates upside risks to inflation over the policy-relevant horizon.”
  • Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
    6 March 2026
    “While I would not use the word nirvana or Goldilocks anymore, I haven't dramatically changed my view on where we are, which is still a good place.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    5 March 2026
    The ECB is “in a good position to monitor very carefully and to try to understand what the consequences of the current shocks will be in the future.”
  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    5 March 2026
    The ECB had been in a “good place in terms of inflation” before the Iran conflict.
  • Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    1 March 2026
    “With the current level of key interest rates, we are in a good position. At the same time, we stand ready to adjust our monetary policy stance in any direction whenever it becomes necessary.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    26 February 2026
    “And when we say that we are in a good place but agile, that’s really what we mean. We have to be attentive to all these developments, their consequences and the monitoring that we can do of it.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    23 February 2026
    “I very strongly believe that we are in that good place, which combined with our key principles, which is to be relying very much on the data and multiple data on many accounts, and the fact that we are not on a preset course and that we will decide meeting by meeting, each and every step of the way we have to assess whether we are in that good place that I am characterizing now, which was a result also implies that we have to be agile and determine whether something needs to be done.”
  • Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
    19 February 2026
    The euro area economy “remains in a good place.”
  • Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
    19 February 2026
    “I think we’re basically in a good place in terms of inflation and interest rates are appropriate.”
  • Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
    12 February 2026
    “[A]t the moment it does look as if inflation is on track to deliver our target, so we’re in a good place.”
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    10 February 2026
    “Today, we are in a good position from a monetary point of view. But a good position is neither comfortable, in view of the uncertainties and difficulties that our fellow citizens are experiencing, nor is it set in stone.”
  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    10 February 2026
    “When one says that we are in a “good place,” it has to be put into context. Personally, I find that the term might lead to misunderstandings. I prefer to say that the economy is more resilient and that inflation is converging toward our target. This makes it clear that we are in a comfortable position with respect to the evolution of inflation. However, one cannot ignore the fact that price levels remain very high for consumers. At the same time, growth is very close to potential, but it is not particularly strong. So, it is important to clarify that when one says “good place,” it refers to the economy and inflation moving in the right direction.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    5 February 2026
    “Are we still in a good place? I would certainly argue that we are in a good place and inflation is in a good place … I would like to mention that our monetary policy is in good shape. And it’s in good shape because it is agile and it is prepared to do what is necessary in order to reach our medium-term 2% target in a symmetric way, as we decided in our strategy assessment determination back in July 2025.”

 

Inflation:

  • Philip Lane (ECB)
    3 March 2026
    “When I look at the inflation forecast, I see non-energy inflation converging to the target, from above [2%] this year. I think that’s a good projection, in particular as inflation is not expected to settle below our target.”
  • Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
    2 March 2026
    “We are in a position where inflation is exactly where you want it to be.”
  • Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    1 March 2026
    “The inflation picture in the euro area is favorable overall, as I already mentioned.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    26 February 2026
    “The good news is that euro area inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain close to the ECB's symmetric 2% target.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    26 February 2026
    “We continue to expect inflation to stabilize at our 2% target in the medium term.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    22 February 2026
    “Inflation is at target,” growth is “okay, not brilliant, but resilient, 1.5%.”
  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    19 February 2026
    Inflation developments are positive, and recent data suggests inflation is below the price stability target while core inflation is approaching 2%.
  • Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    9 February 2026
    “However, if we extrapolate the December 2025 projections using technical assumptions on oil prices, exchange rates and market rates, the inflation outlook is largely confirmed. The recent appreciation of the euro against the US dollar is also unlikely to have a significant impact on this assessment.”
  • Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
    6 February 2026
    “Our assessment confirms that inflation is expected to stabilize around our target of 2% in the medium term.”
  • Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
    6 February 2026
    “Recent statistics on the state of the euro area economy support the assessment that inflation will stabilize around 2% for the foreseeable future.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    6 February 2026
    “The inflation outlook remains close to the ECB's 2% target … Eurozone inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain, overall, close to the ECB's target.”

 

CPI data:

  • Philip Lane (ECB)
    3 March 2026
    “We’ve had mild energy deflation recently – lower energy prices were a drag on the overall inflation rate. We expect it to go from being mildly negative to being a little bit positive, including owing to the new EU Emissions Trading System (ETS2) in 2028.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    26 February 2026
    “Inflation declined to 1.7% in January, from 2.0% in December, owing to lower energy and services inflation. Core inflation—excluding energy and food—eased to 2.2%, after 2.3% in December.”
  • Fabio Panetta (Banca d’Italia)
    21 February 2026
    “The decline in inflation observed early this year, which was somewhat stronger than expected, does not significantly alter the medium-term assessment, but highlights a number of aspects to be monitored.”
  • Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
    19 February 2026
    “I don’t want to put too much emphasis on January; it’s one month. But January surprised on the downside in services and in non-energy industrial goods. For services, I need to understand better what drove that downside surprise. For non-energy industrial goods, we’ve been seeing inflation largely return to pre-COVID patterns, but I need to see which components drove the January miss.”
  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    10 February 2026
    “It was in line with our expectations. We clearly indicated that headline inflation would fall below 2% in early 2026, and that has been the trajectory so far. It is also important to remember that flash estimates can sometimes be revised. I understand that markets focus closely on individual data points, but the overall trend is in line with what we had projected.”
  • Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
    6 February 2026
    “Despite a small undershoot in the latest data – headline inflation in the euro area was 1.7% in January – inflation remains in line with our projections. Excluding the more volatile energy and food components, core inflation was 2.2%.”
  • Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
    6 February 2026
    “At the beginning of the year, eurozone price increases slowed down even more than expected, and consumer prices in the eurozone as a whole were only 1.7% higher in January than a year ago.”
  • Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
    6 February 2026
    Recent growth and inflation readings remain broadly consistent with the baseline even if inflation has come in below the ECB’s forecast; the “importance of a single data point should not be exaggerated.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    6 February 2026
    “In January, however, inflation slowed to 1.7%, surprising many observers with its subdued pace. Inflation slowed in particular due to significantly lower energy prices than last year, but also driven by core inflation. The slowdown in core inflation allays concerns about the resilience of wage and services inflation … At the same time, there is a real risk of lower-than-expected inflation. A small sign of this was already seen in the January data.”
  • Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
    6 February 2026
    “Inflation in the euro area stood at 1.7% in January according to the Eurostat flash estimate, down 0.3 percentage points on December. The fall in inflation is attributable to a sharp fall in energy price inflation, and a slight decline in service price inflation, which drove core inflation down to 2.2% in January.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    5 February 2026
    “I would like just to remind you that our good place is a factor of whether we are convinced that we will reach our medium-term target of 2%. And we cannot be hostage to one data point. I’ve said that many times. We cannot be hostage to one reading of inflation, which is set to vary over the next months. I’m happy to go down into what’s underneath, but there are multiple causes of this 1.7%, and in the monetary policy statement we take really good care of saying what has gone up and what has gone down. You have a bit more of one category versus the others. So as a result of that, we have this particular reading. But some of them are idiosyncratic and will go away. There is a significant component on energy, which has gone to minus five point something and which is largely a base effect from last year’s energy costs.”

 

Overshooting:

  • Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
    6 March 2026
    Just as the ECB is willing to look through the “slight undershoot” of its inflation target, “of course the same has to be true in the opposite direction.”
  • Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
    6 March 2026
    “We should be consistent and we are symmetrical. We do not put a higher weight on either under or overshooting.”
  • Philip Lane (ECB)
    3 March 2026
    “If the assessment of positive and negative deviations turns out to be symmetric, our response is symmetric. But it is important to be aware that the inflation dynamics might be different. If a downside shock persists, we may drift towards the lower bound. To the upside we could get non-linear dynamics, as inflation might overshoot.”
  • Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    9 February 2026
    “[S]mall, temporary deviations – especially for components that are prone to volatility, such as energy prices – do not necessitate a change in course when inflation expectations are anchored … These conclusions hold true for the current situation, in which we could undershoot the inflation target. However, they would also hold true if we were to potentially overshoot the target. This is the symmetry of the inflation target that I mentioned at the start.”

 

Undershooting:

  • Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    11 March 2026
    “[D]iscussions about falling short of our inflation target are likely to be over for the time being.”
  • Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
    11 March 2026
    “We can forget about all the discussion about an inflation undershoot.”
  • Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
    6 March 2026
    “If we go back a week, I would have said that I’m pretty comfortable with the baseline scenario. Also, because inflationary expectations were quite well anchored at 2%. The undershooting was also not substantial. You will now ask me what substantial is, then. I wouldn’t want to put a number on that.”
  • Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
    5 March 2026
    “[A]t the moment there are, in my view, no substantial risks that we would end up clearly below 2%.”
  • Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
    19 February 2026
    “If we start consistently undershooting compared to what staff projected last December [I would be surprised]. Of course, there will be revisions in March. But if, for several months, we are consistently below that was projected, that is something staff will factor into their projections. If they revise downwards and, for a prolonged period, the medium-term outlook is below 2%, I don’t think that’s something you can ignore.”
  • Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    9 February 2026
    “Overall, the potential undershooting of the 2% mark in the coming quarters is, on the one hand, quantitatively small, and, on the other hand, particularly attributable to volatile energy prices. At the same time, price stability will be maintained over the medium term and long-term inflation expectations are anchored … Even if the inflation rate falls somewhat below our target in the coming quarters, there is no need for immediate action as a result.”
  • Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
    6 February 2026
    “One question I have been asked is whether the headline figure suggests monetary policy might even be too tight? On the basis of the current data, combined with the ECB/Eurosystem projections, my answer is no. We see from the core inflation figure of 2.2% in January that underlying price pressures are moving in a direction consistent with our target.  Furthermore, notwithstanding comforting signals from negotiated wages and soft data, until we start seeing data for 2026 there is lingering uncertainty about the path for wages. For me, our data-dependent approach calls for patience rather than action at this stage … On the undershoot, long-run inflation expectations remain anchored at our 2% target. This does not currently suggest a persistent undershoot dynamic, but we continue to closely monitor developments here.”
  • Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
    6 February 2026
    Headline inflation sliding below 2% early this year had been anticipated.
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    5 February 2026
    “We have projected undershooting in 2026 for a long time. And if you go back to our September projections, for instance, which were the last projections conducted by the ECB, we had actually this 1.7%, for the entire year. This was changed and moved up in December. In a way, we are going back to the track that we had anticipated, and this is also what markets and economists are anticipating.”

 

Inflation risks:

  • Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
    11 March 2026
    “The balance of risks regarding inflation has clearly shifted to the upside.”
  • Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
    6 March 2026
    “This constellation of factors poses upside risks to the future trajectory of domestic inflation, particularly in labor-intensive services where wages account for a large share of total costs and the pass‑through tends to be gradual but persistent … We need to be vigilant as the current geopolitical and macroeconomic environment creates upside risks to inflation over the policy-relevant horizon.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    6 March 2026
    “Inflation risks are two-sided. In the short term, high oil and gas prices create upside risks. But there are also downside risks from weaker services inflation, moderate wage growth and cheaper imports from China.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    4 March 2026
    “However, we do not yet know enough about the duration and other consequences of the situation to be able to make a firm assessment of its inflationary impact. Even if energy prices remain high for a longer period, such shocks will not only increase oil prices but also increase uncertainty and complicate international trade broadly – ​​they are both supply and demand shocks. The net impact of these factors on inflation is an empirical question. New risks need to be assessed in relation to the risks already identified, many of which, such as moderate wage developments and cheap Chinese imports, point to lower inflation than forecast.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    23 February 2026
    “Balance of risks, you know, we have said in our last monetary policy statement that it was broadly balanced, so not, you know.”
  • Fabio Panetta (Banca d’Italia)
    21 February 2026
    “Both upside and downside inflationary risks are significant. On the one hand, energy markets remain exposed to geopolitical tensions. Persistent commodity price increases or a further fragmentation of global supply chains, leading to higher intermediate input costs, could put upward pressure on inflation. On the other hand, a further appreciation of the euro, a strong correction in financial markets or a tightening of credit standards could keep inflation below target for an extended period.”
  • Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
    19 February 2026
    Risks to growth and inflation look broadly two-sided.
  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    19 February 2026
    “Risks are balanced, though the main source of uncertainty remains the geopolitical environment.”
  • Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
    19 February 2026
    “There are risks, but we still see these as quite balanced for growth and inflation.”
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    18 February 2026
    “There may be some upside risks to inflation, but I remain convinced that the downside risks are greater.”
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    10 February 2026
    “The downside risks to price developments now seem to me to be a little stronger than the upside risks. I therefore defend more than ever an agile pragmatism in terms of rates.”
  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    10 February 2026
    “Among the risks we foresee, the first is the geopolitical situation, including developments in Ukraine, the Middle East and Iran, which we must take into account. This is why we are very prudent in our monetary policy stance. Second, China is becoming our main competitor, both overseas – due to its gains in competitiveness and the fact that both the quality of its products and the composition of Chinese exports are very similar to Europe’s – and in the domestic market, where penetration of Chinese products is becoming more and more evident. This is something we must bear in mind, especially given that the trade agreement between China and the United States has yet to be finalized … Risks are balanced, but the ones I highlighted could become more tangible and relevant sooner.”
  • Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    9 February 2026
    “Furthermore, the risks to inflation are more or less balanced at present. In addition, long-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored at our inflation target of 2 %. This holds true for both surveys of professional forecasters as well as for inflation expectations calculated using financial market prices.”
  • Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
    9 February 2026
    “I think the risks are balanced now. Both with regard to the inflation outlook, and with regard to the economic outlook.”
  • Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
    9 February 2026
    “When I look at inflation, the overall situation remains balanced. We’re close to the target, but this currently hinges on favorable energy price dynamics. Should the eurozone’s economy deliver a stronger-than-expected performance, upside inflation risks could come into play, but let’s see. On the other – the downside inflation risks – side, there’s the element of the exchange rate.”
  • Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
    6 February 2026
    “As we saw in recent weeks, intertwined geopolitical and economic risks to the outlook are both two-sided and wide-ranging.”
  • Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
    6 February 2026
    Risks to the outlook for growth and inflation are balanced.
  • Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
    6 February 2026
    Risks “may still be largely balanced.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    6 February 2026
    “At the same time, there is a real risk of lower-than-expected inflation. A small sign of this was already seen in the January data. Although growth is positive, it remains subdued. Forward-looking indicators point to a clear slowdown in wage developments, which in turn would have a dampening effect on service prices in particular. In addition, the already-seen strengthening of the euro exchange rate and the increase in cheap Chinese imports could affect the dynamics of underlying inflation, even with a long lag. If these factors continue, they will also have an impact on the competitiveness of the euro area.”
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    6 February 2026
    “There are upside risks [to] inflation. There are probably more significant downside risks.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    5 February 2026
    “In relation to our risk assessment, you will have seen that we take a “one hand, the other hand” approach, both in relation to activity and in relation to inflation. And if you look at the balancing act between the two, we are – as I would call it – in a broadly balanced situation when it comes to risk assessment. Some risks have ticked up. Others have ticked down. But on balance, taking the various specific elements that we make sure we list in a rather exhaustive way, we believe that we are in a broadly balanced situation at the moment.”

 

Chinese imports:

  • Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
    6 March 2026
    “Part of the low goods price inflation is coming from China, but it’s not so much this issue of trade diversion. This is something that we haven’t really seen.”
  • Philip Lane (ECB)
    3 March 2026
    “In sectors where Europe previously led, Chinese competition has reduced European firms’ market share and pricing power. In other sectors, cheaper Chinese inputs benefit European firms. Textbook theory would suggest that a stronger China should also mean stronger import demand from China. Instead, we have seen China running larger trade surpluses, with exports rising more than imports. There is an ongoing global discussion about rebalancing. Stronger Chinese domestic consumption would make the net impact on Europe more clearly positive.”
  • Fabio Panetta (Banca d’Italia)
    21 February 2026
    “The main one [aspects with respect to inflation to be monitored] is the trend in imports from China, which are up by 27% in terms of volumes since the beginning of 2024, with prices down by 8%. The disinflationary impact remains limited for the time being but is already visible – with the prices of the goods most exposed to Chinese competition decelerating faster than the rest – and could become more pronounced in the coming months.”
  • Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
    19 February 2026
    “[I]mports from China are growing, and that could put some downward pressure on inflation.”
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    18 February 2026
    “Furthermore, we are closely monitoring developments in Chinese imports, which could have disinflationary effects. In the last six months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, Chinese imports into the eurozone increased by more than 11% in volume, while their prices fell by more than 10% (including due to exchange rate fluctuations).”
  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    10 February 2026
    “[P]enetration of Chinese products is becoming more and more evident. This is something we must bear in mind, especially given that the trade agreement between China and the United States has yet to be finalized. If we were to see additional trade diversion toward Europe, we would need to be very vigilant. Chinese exports could have a downward impact on both inflation and growth.”
  • Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
    6 February 2026
    “At the same time, European countries are increasingly affected by the growing market share of Chinese goods in our own domestic market. In the past two years, the volume of imports from China into the euro area has increased by more than a third. Many Chinese products are becoming cheaper. This benefits consumers, who can get their goods cheaper, and companies, for whom the cost of imported production inputs from China is lower. On the other hand, this means that competition from Chinese manufacturers has become increasingly intense.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    6 February 2026
    “In addition, the already-seen strengthening of the euro exchange rate and the increase in cheap Chinese imports could affect the dynamics of underlying inflation, even with a long lag. If these factors continue, they will also have an impact on the competitiveness of the euro area.”
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    6 February 2026
    “There, we see a pretty big increase in Chinese imports lately, partly due to the closure of the U.S. market for Chinese exporters. So, here, I will give you two figures that are quite striking. When we look at the last six months of 2025, and compare it to the last six months of 2024, in one year, Chinese imports into the euro area have increased by more than 11% in volume, in quantity, and they have decreased by more than 10% in price. So, when you combine the two, it has a pretty strong disinflationary effect.”

 

Services inflation and wages:

  • Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
    11 March 2026
    “Businesses still remember the inflation years and will likely pass through higher costs much more quickly to consumers than in 2022. And people will ask for higher wages more quickly than in the past.”
  • Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
    6 March 2026
    “Unemployment is low by historical standards and is below estimates of the natural rate of unemployment (Slide 9, left-hand side). Firms in many sectors continue to report difficulties in filling positions (Slide 9, right-hand side). This tightness directly feeds into wages. While negotiated wage growth is expected to moderate, overall compensation per employee remains elevated relative to levels consistent with stable inflation (Slide 10). Wage drift continues to add to total labor costs in an environment where labor is becoming structurally scarcer owing to rapid demographic aging, moderating immigration and rising skill mismatches.”
  • Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
    6 March 2026
    “It's somewhat puzzling because wage inflation is coming down. We have seen a number of adjustments in the way the inflation numbers are being calculated, particularly with regard to package holidays, and that might play a role. But if you look at wage inflation, the picture doesn't completely add up.”
  • Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
    5 March 2026
    “What is decisive, however, if one focuses on current developments, is services inflation. And this is not an Austrian phenomenon. The same is true for the euro area as a whole: roughly two-thirds to three-quarters of total inflation comes from services inflation. That means that what we are especially monitoring at the moment is not so much the exchange rate against the dollar—though that also matters and is important—but above all wage developments. Wages have a very strong influence on services inflation. In many services, the wage share is 40%, 50%, 60%, even 70%, depending on the service. That is why we have an EU-level Wage Tracker, which gives us a very up-to-date picture of collectively agreed wages. There are different measures we use to track wages in order to forecast how inflation is likely to evolve. But all of this currently points to inflation remaining around 2%, which is exactly the objective.”
  • Philip Lane (ECB)
    3 March 2026
    “We expect wage deceleration to continue this year.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    26 February 2026
    “With inflation lower than nominal wage growth, real wages – wages that are adjusted for inflation – have not only recovered but have on average risen above levels seen in early 2021. Wage growth remains elevated but has eased gradually and is expected to continue to moderate to around 3% in the medium term.”
  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    19 February 2026
    The slowdown in services inflation is “encouraging” while wage growth is “broadly in line” with the ECB’s projections.
  • Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
    19 February 2026
    “The data on wage negotiations indicate that wage growth is now heading toward its historical trend, which is a good sign. We still need more information about wage drift, because that may have been a bit stickier on the upside, but at the last meeting we had no new information on that … I’m not seeing stickiness or persistence in wage inflation. If labor conditions soften, wage drift will likely go down as well.”
  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    10 February 2026
    “Services inflation is moving in the right direction. The fact that services inflation came in one or two decimal points below expectations is not particularly important; what matters is its trajectory and direction. And we are comfortable with those … The trajectory across all measures – such as compensation per employee and collective bargaining agreements – points in the same direction: moderation.”
  • Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
    6 February 2026
    “Services inflation was 3.2% in January, down from 3.4% in December. This is edging closer to the 3% level I have highlighted in the past as one that I see as being more consistent with the target. Labor costs are a potential cost-push driver of price-setting for services firms, and we have seen significant wage growth moderation after the staggered adjustment of wages to the inflation surge. Soft data on firms’ expectations also point to an easing of labor cost pressures in the year ahead. But, after the wage drift we observed towards the end of last year – when outturn wage growth turned out to be above what we expected based on the ECB negotiated wage tracker – we await hard data on wage growth for the first half of this year … Given the importance of wage setting for firms’ overall costs, especially those with a large labor share, this is another area that warrants close attention. Forward-looking information from firm surveys and forecasters shows wage growth settling around 3% in 2026-28, despite a cooling of labor demand in recent months. Wage growth around this level would mitigate the risk of a persistent inflation undershoot.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    6 February 2026
    “In January, however, inflation slowed to 1.7%, surprising many observers with its subdued pace. Inflation slowed in particular due to significantly lower energy prices than last year, but also driven by core inflation. The slowdown in core inflation allays concerns about the resilience of wage and services inflation … Forward-looking indicators point to a clear slowdown in wage developments, which in turn would have a dampening effect on service prices in particular.”
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    6 February 2026
    “And the second is that this lower inflation can be accompanied by wage moderation. And that's good for our competitiveness.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    5 February 2026
    “I myself am particularly attentive, as you know, to services. Services is declining a little bit. I’m also very attentive, as a result, to wages. We have the wage tracker, which seems to guide us towards more growth moderation. We will have more data and intelligence coming out of the March exercise, but there is nothing that is really changing the baseline at all.”

 

Core inflation:

  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    6 February 2026
    “In January, however, inflation slowed to 1.7%, surprising many observers with its subdued pace. Inflation slowed in particular due to significantly lower energy prices than last year, but also driven by core inflation. The slowdown in core inflation allays concerns about the resilience of wage and services inflation.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    5 February 2026
    “Core inflation, you’re right, is one of the underlying inflation elements that we consider. That is one which has gone from 2.4% to 2.2%. We’re still at 2.2% by the way, and I think that it’s following a path that we had anticipated and that we are pleased to see is taking us to target.”

 

Economic growth:

  • Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
    6 March 2026
    “I did not expect the economy to be this resilient to uncertainty around tariffs. The rate of growth is nothing to celebrate but that is more related to the fact that the potential growth rate is low, which is not something monetary policy can solve.”
  • Philip Lane (ECB)
    3 March 2026
    “The European economy has been growing in the neighborhood of its potential. Consumption is contributing, as expected. Government spending is also contributing, again broadly as expected. Exports are essentially a drag. Higher business investment has made the main difference. Investment is ahead of expectations, and the extra momentum is coming from AI and from the green transition, where firms and governments are upgrading their capital stock.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    26 February 2026
    “The European economy has weathered the turmoil of recent years well, but growth has been sluggish. The good news is that euro area inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain close to the ECB's symmetric 2% target. But while the European economy has shown resilience, it is not very dynamic in terms of growth figures. To grow, Europe needs more investment and sufficient financing for it.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    26 February 2026
    “In the period ahead, activity is expected to be supported by rising labor income amid a resilient labor market, as well as investment in defense, infrastructure and digital technologies. At the same time, the trade environment remains challenging owing to higher tariffs, a stronger euro and a persistently volatile global policy environment.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    22 February 2026
    “Inflation is at target,” growth is “okay, not brilliant, but resilient, 1.5%.”
  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    19 February 2026
    “The European economy is performing slightly better than we expected, given all the uncertainty following the decisions of the US administration.”
  • Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
    6 February 2026
    “For the euro area as a whole, the Q4 data suggest some small upside risk to the December projections of 1.2% growth in 2026. Overall, it remains a picture of moderate but steady expansion – not exactly spectacular, but enough to suggest the economy has found its feet after years of successive crises. That said, growth remains anemic by historical standards. And while a euro area growth rate of 1.2–1.5% is close to, or even at, potential, it masks the fact that some countries — particularly manufacturing-heavy economies – are struggling to gain traction. Such a low level of potential growth is a concern.”
  • Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
    6 February 2026
    “We see that the economy is holding up well at the moment. Unemployment remains low, the services sector is performing well and industry is also holding up reasonably, despite the challenging global environment. At the same time, looking ahead remains difficult due to uncertainty about global trade policy and ongoing geopolitical tensions. We therefore continue to assess at each meeting whether an adjustment of the interest rate is necessary.”
  • Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
    6 February 2026
    “The euro area economy is still growing at a moderate pace and the labor market is strong … Economic growth, on the other hand, exceeded expectations at the end of last year – the eurozone economy grew by 1.5% in 2025 (for comparison: GDP growth in 2024 was 0.9%). According to surveys, eurozone entrepreneurs are also more optimistic about the near-term outlook for their businesses than before.”
  • Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
    6 February 2026
    The economy is resilient despite geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts … Q4 2025 growth was “a tad stronger than expected.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    6 February 2026
    “The euro area economy has been growing steadily despite the turmoil – even slightly stronger than forecast … The data received in December-January reinforce the view that euro area growth will continue to be positive but subdued. This is in line with the picture given by the Eurosystem forecast before Christmas. Growth in the last quarter of 2025 was even slightly stronger than forecast and the most recent statistical data from the euro area have also been slightly more positive than expected. The euro area has shown resilience to shocks. However, the growth outlook remains overshadowed by geopolitical tensions, which could cause unpleasant surprises. At the same time, household caution continues to hold back private consumption.”
  • Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
    6 February 2026
    “Economic growth is continuing in the euro area, while inflation remains close to its 2% target rate … According to the available data, inflation in the euro area is holding close to its target rate, while economic activity remains relatively resilient to the shocks in the international environment … The euro area economy slightly outperformed expectations in the final quarter of last year: GDP was up 0.3% on the previous quarter in real terms. According to the available monthly data, services were the main driver of the economic expansion, while activity in manufacturing remained under the influence of changes in tariff policy, uncertainty, and worsening competitiveness. Meanwhile the latest PMIs suggest that the picture remains relatively good in the new year: the composite PMI remained in the zone of expansion in January at 51.3 points.”

 

Growth risks:

  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    5 March 2026
    Risks to the outlook had been “two-sided” and balanced before the Iran conflict.
  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    19 February 2026
    “Risks are balanced, though the main source of uncertainty remains the geopolitical environment.”
  • Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
    19 February 2026
    “There are risks, but we still see these as quite balanced for growth and inflation … I can see there could be some more downside risks to growth, even though the data have been somewhat better than expected.”
  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    10 February 2026
    “Among the risks we foresee, the first is the geopolitical situation, including developments in Ukraine, the Middle East and Iran, which we must take into account. This is why we are very prudent in our monetary policy stance. Second, China is becoming our main competitor, both overseas – due to its gains in competitiveness and the fact that both the quality of its products and the composition of Chinese exports are very similar to Europe’s – and in the domestic market, where penetration of Chinese products is becoming more and more evident. This is something we must bear in mind, especially given that the trade agreement between China and the United States has yet to be finalized … Risks are balanced, but the ones I highlighted could become more tangible and relevant sooner.”
  • Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
    6 February 2026
    “On growth, ongoing trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions could be negative for investment and employment decisions. We will continue to monitor developments as we prepare for our next meeting, which will include updated projections, in March.”
  • Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
    6 February 2026
    Risks to the outlook for growth and inflation are balanced.
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    6 February 2026
    “The growth outlook now faces both upside and downside risks. Growth could be slower than forecast if euro area exports fail to keep pace with global trade growth and household saving rates remain high. On the other hand, large-scale investments in defense and infrastructure could materialize at a higher rate than expected, and economic development could continue to prove more resilient than previously thought. If growth were to accelerate more than forecast, inflation could also be faster than forecast. The recent rise in energy and industrial metal prices could also, if it continues, push consumer prices higher than forecast.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    5 February 2026
    “In relation to our risk assessment, you will have seen that we take a “one hand, the other hand” approach, both in relation to activity and in relation to inflation. And if you look at the balancing act between the two, we are – as I would call it – in a broadly balanced situation when it comes to risk assessment. Some risks have ticked up. Others have ticked down. But on balance, taking the various specific elements that we make sure we list in a rather exhaustive way, we believe that we are in a broadly balanced situation at the moment.”

 

Exchange rate:

  • Pierre Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)
    5 March 2026
    If Europe seeks “a greater role for the euro, we might see further appreciation.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    5 March 2026
    “I believe that in the medium term … we will not see a kind of end of dollar dominance, that would be pretty much sure. But we will more likely see a gradual movement towards a more multipolar global finance and monetary system where the euro plays an important role and the digital euro, which is in the pipeline, will support us in that regard.”
  • Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
    5 March 2026
    “I wouldn’t put any numerical threshold to either direction and, moreover, if you look at the euro’s rate and strength in medium-to-long term these movements have been not so dramatic.”
  • Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    5 March 2026
    The US dollar is now stronger than the euro, but the movement is within a range that is “not something that is a major concern.”
  • Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
    19 February 2026
    “In the projections we had USD 1.16 embedded. Now it’s around USD 1.18, which is not a big change. Past studies suggest an equilibrium exchange rate could be around USD 1.20 to USD 1.25, and there is still some way to go to that level. And even if we reach it, it’s not the end of the world. But big movements are certainly something to monitor.”
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    18 February 2026
    “The current situation certainly reflects the weakening of the dollar rather than a specific appreciation of the euro, and at $1.18 to the euro, the euro is practically at its historical average since its creation in 1999. Nevertheless, our Governing Council will remain very vigilant regarding trends. Financial markets have good reason to be less confident in dollar-denominated assets, given the inconsistencies and unpredictability of the new US economic policy.”
  • Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
    13 February 2026
    “[W]e will likely see the full impact of the euro’s strengthening last year toward late spring” … The ECB’s current approach with respect to the euro is a “manifestation of attention” rather than a “verbal intervention,” the ECB is not going “that far.”
  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    10 February 2026
    “It has hovered around 1.16–1.18 for a long period. There was a brief uptick recently but we are now back to that range, which is fully consistent with the assumptions included in our projections. There have been no surprises in that regard, but we remain attentive to the evolution of the euro-dollar exchange rate … It deserves attention but I do not see it as dramatic at all.”
  • Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    9 February 2026
    “However, if we extrapolate the December 2025 projections using technical assumptions on oil prices, exchange rates and market rates, the inflation outlook is largely confirmed. The recent appreciation of the euro against the US dollar is also unlikely to have a significant impact on this assessment.”
  • Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
    9 February 2026
    “Any further appreciation will have to be evaluated against the relative strength of the euro area’s economic performance and ultimately our medium-term inflation target.”
  • Piero Cipollone (ECB)
    8 February 2026
    “We do not have a specific target for the exchange rate. Obviously, we take into account the exchange rate as an input in our projections. This is part of all the range of inputs that we take into account to project inflation dynamics. And we will see how the new projections match and the impact this will have. The euro has appreciated at the beginning of 2026. It has been bunching around 1.18, 1.17 against the dollar for almost a year now. After the episode we saw a couple of weeks ago it is now back to levels seen in previous months.”
  • Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
    6 February 2026
    “Most of the appreciation has taken place in the first quarter of last year. So it was not something dramatic that should lead us to change our course of action.”
  • Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
    6 February 2026
    The exchange rate has moved within a relatively narrow corridor in recent months and the effective exchange rate has been broadly flat. A “sizeable and pacey” strengthening would weaken competitiveness and activity, lowering the inflation outlook and potentially prompting a policy response.
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    6 February 2026
    “… the exchange rate is very important for both activity and inflation. If the Euro were to appreciate significantly further, it would mean less inflation. And so, Christine Lagarde said: "we are looking closely". Maybe I'll say it in English, because this press conference is happening in English. She said: "We keep a close eye", we keep a very close eye on the evolution of the exchange rate. I think that may be an important signal. In our discussion, we noted, moreover, that it was not so much an appreciation of the Euro as a general weakness of the Dollar over the past year, which also reflects a decrease in confidence in American assets, due to the uncertainties of American policy, of American economic policy. Perhaps one last note: this movement on the Dollar has tended to stabilize in recent days. We are around $1.18 per euro. I also note, it is a coincidence, that this is the historical parity when you look at the euro-dollar average since the creation of the Euro.”
  • Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
    6 February 2026
    “Since the fall or actually the summer, the dollar exchange rate has no longer changed strongly.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    5 February 2026
    “    we do not target an exchange rate in terms of policy target, but we also recognize that it is important for both growth and the inflation outlook. So for that reason, we always keep a close eye on exchange rate developments, and the Governing Council discussed this matter today. What we observed collectively is that the dollar has depreciated measurably against the euro, but not in the last few days. But since March 2025. That’s when you saw the significant change, at the time. And in the last few weeks – actually since the summer – it has fluctuated within a range. And whether you look at the euro-dollar or whether you look at the nominal effective exchange rate, the story is the same. So as a result of that observation, we concluded that the impact of exchange rate appreciation since last year is incorporated in our baseline.”

 

Tightening of financial conditions:

  • Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
    19 February 2026
    “From the last Bank Lending Survey, banks’ risk perceptions have increased and lending conditions have tightened slightly. That’s something we need to look closely at if financing conditions tighten further.”
  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    10 February 2026
    “There has been a very marginal tightening of conditions for corporates, which is more closely linked to banks’ sentiment and confidence about the economy, as well as the level of uncertainty. For mortgages our stance has been fully transmitted, but for corporates, we still need to assess the situation. There are also some composition effects, as the tightening is concentrated in specific sectors that are more exposed to trade tensions.”

 

Appointment of Kevin Warsh:

  • Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
    19 February 2026
    “It would be premature to judge somebody before he even starts his job. I trust that, like his predecessor, he will have one goal in mind: achieving the mandate the Fed has been entrusted with. So, let’s wait and see how he acts.”
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    18 February 2026
    “The likely appointment of Kevin Warsh as head of the Federal Reserve alleviates some doubts about its independence, but not the uncertainty surrounding the monetary policy it will pursue.”
  • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    10 February 2026
    “He is a knowledgeable person who knows how markets work and he understands the importance of central bank independence. In my view, it was a good choice … Mr. Warsh knows the Fed and I believe he will be a good Chair.”
  • José Luis Escrivá (Banco de España)
    6 February 2026
    Kevin Warsh has a “very long track record” in central banking and a “great deal of experience” beyond it; his credentials are “very high”.
  • François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
    6 February 2026
    “First, this stabilization of the Dollar, it seems to be largely linked to the appointment of the new Chairman of the Fed, Kevin Warsh, who, it seems, will better guarantee the independence of the American Central Bank. I think that's a good thing.”
  • Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
    6 February 2026
    It is “hard to say” how Warsh would behave in the new role, but as a member previously of the Federal Open Market Committee, he had supported a stability-oriented monetary policy and could have even been considered a “hawk.”
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB)
    5 February 2026
    “On Kevin Warsh, yes, I have known him for a long, long time since back in the financial crisis days, where he was in public service and I was Minister of Finance at the time. So we go back a long way, and I very much welcome the announcement of his appointment.”