ECB Tone Meter

The ECB Tone Meter is an index measuring the overall dovishness or hawkishness of recent communications from the ECB Governing Council, factoring in all member public speeches and communications.

This provides a quantitative tool to summarize and analyze multiple qualitative inputs to provide a point estimate of the current tone, assess how it has evolved over time, and ultimately provide clues on potential future policy action.

Explainer - ECB Tone Meter Scores: The Tone Meter gauge displays values from -7.5 to +7.5. Technically the values could print outside this range (full scale is -10 to +10) but in practice the composite value rarely approaches these extremes, and a reduced range makes meaningful shifts more clearly visible. In practice, our experience gives the following as a rough interpretation of the values:

Tone Evolution

As of 2 October 2025

Key Drivers of ECB Tone Meter Movements

Below is a breakdown of key periods, grouped by the dominant communication tone observed:

The Executive Board Sharpens Its Hawkish Tone

• After 18 September: Previously dovish members of the Executive Board begin to sound more hawkish. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos emphasizes that the risk of undershooting is “not very high” and characterizes inflation risks as two-sided. While this marks a slightly more hawkish stance, he notably avoids outlining any upside risks to inflation when pressed. More striking is Executive Board member Piero Cipollone’s assessment of the economy, which he describes as “surprisingly resilient” and performing “pretty well.” Echoing de Guindos, Cipollone also notes that inflation risks are balanced and, unsurprisingly, endorses President Christine Lagarde’s “good place” narrative.

Doves Take Flight: Prominent Voices Push Back Against Lagarde

• After 12 September: Following ECB President Christine Lagarde’s hawkish press conference, some of the usual hawkish figures (Estonia’s Madis Müller, Germany’s Joachim Nagel, and Slovakia’s Peter Kažimír) line up in support of the pause and Lagarde’s stance. But staunch doves push back: France’s François Villeroy de Galhau argues markets overreacted and calls another cut “entirely possible,” while Finland’s Olli Rehn lays detailed groundwork for further easing, warning the outlook is more fragile than it appears. Lithuania’s Gediminas Šimkus reiterates his “Santa Claus” reference to a December cut, and ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos drops the inflationary concerns he voiced in late August, despite describing the current rate level as “appropriate”. Latvia’s Mārtiņš Kazāks cautions that delaying the ETS could have a “sizeable” effect on inflation projections.

Dovish Tilt: Doves Reemerge After Summer Break

• 31 August - 2 September: A handful of dovish voices break their silence. Finland’s Olli Rehn, who had already hinted at downside risks, now stresses more concern over inflation undershooting. Lithuania’s Gediminas Šimkus openly raises the possibility of a rate cut as early as October or December.

Summer Hawkish Tilt: Only Hawks Break Usual Holiday Silence

• 5 - 29 August: During an otherwise quiet stretch, the few comments that surface are muted and lean toward staying on hold. ECB President Christine Lagarde downplays the trade deal’s impact despite higher-than-expected tariffs. Germany’s Joachim Nagel stresses the high bar for another cut, while even doves like Finland’s Olli Rehn argue an “insurance cut” isn’t needed. France’s François Villeroy de Galhau limits his remarks to dovish takes on trade, avoiding policy calls. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos strikes a balanced note, describing inflation risks carefully and calling the current rate “appropriate.”

New Hawkish Turn Post-Presser: Doves Less Vocal, Majority Content With Pause

• 25 – 29 July: Most policymakers signal comfort with maintaining the pause. Spain’s José Luis Escrivá even speaks of an “end of the cycle.” None point to cuts as the next step, with Finland’s Olli Rehn offering only the faintest suggestion to that effect. Some doves, such as Executive Board member Piero Cipollone, avoid fueling or dismissing expectations of further easing, though they continue to lean on familiar dovish arguments.

Emerging Divergence: Split Views at Sintra

• 30 June – 2 July: Mixed messages dominate about the path beyond July. Previously dovish members such as Lithuania’s Gediminas Šimkus and Malta’s Alexander Demarco express doubt about a September rate cut or further action at all. Meanwhile, hawkish figures like Estonia’s Madis Müller support holding rates steady. On the other hand, more dovishly inclined members like Portugal’s Mário Centeno and Belgium's Pierre Wunsch signal willingness to act again if needed.

Hawkish Consolidation: “Good Place” Narrative Gains Ground

• 5–25 June: Executive Board members turn less dovish, rallying around President Lagarde’s message that the ECB is in a “good place.” ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos maintains a more pessimistic economic view, citing weak growth as an “early indicator” of inflation. Chief Economist Philip Lane emphasizes persistent services inflation risks.
• 6 June: A clear shift from the pre–June 5 tone. More Governing Council members align with the idea of a pause, with some even suggesting that the ECB's tightening cycle could already be complete.

Renewed Dovish Turn: Previous Hawk Joins In

• 18 May: The dovish tone of the Governing Council deepens as formerly hawkish member Belgium's Pierre Wunsch begins to explicitly support a June rate cut. His shift marks a meaningful softening in the Council’s overall policy stance.

Hawkish Rebalancing in the Executive Board

• 28–30 April: The Executive Board’s tone moderates. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos adopts a more balanced message, and member Piero Cipollone steps back from earlier explicit calls for further easing. This leads to a notable upward move in the ECB Tone Meter.

Dovish Shift Amid Growing Tariff Uncertainty

• 21–24 April: A dovish shift in the Executive Board is led by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, who moves from cautious language to explicitly warning about the deflationary risks of tariffs and sluggish growth. ECB President Christine Lagarde acknowledges further disinflation could occur in the absence of European retaliation in trade disputes.
• 22 April – 6 May: Broader Governing Council sentiment turns more dovish. Policymakers express openness to additional cuts and highlight growing concerns over deflationary pressures from global trade dynamics.

Methodology

Each comment made by an individual policymaker is assessed and assigned a score on a scale from +10 to -10, where +10 represents the most hawkish position and -10 the most dovish. Importantly, these scores are given in absolute terms, regardless of where the ECB is in the current monetary policy cycle and what the historical bias of each policymaker is.

In our ECB Tone Meter we include only remarks in which a policymaker’s personal stance is clearly expressed or can be confidently inferred. While we apply a consistent framework, we acknowledge that there is an inherent degree of subjectivity in interpreting tone and intent.

Still, our experience suggests that this approach captures policy shifts early and reliably. The result is a unique, real-time snapshot of the evolving policy mood in Frankfurt — helping you spot shifts, trends, and turning points as they happen.