By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The European Central Bank's Governing Council became more hawkish last week as some policymakers increasingly signaled that another interest rate increase in December was likely, while the Executive Board turned more cautious, emphasizing uncertainty and the need for additional economic data.
9 November 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde effectively told markets on October 29 to expect a December rate hike unless the outlook changed dramatically. In an interview published Saturday, she presented her remarks to Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun as a reiteration of her earlier guidance; our slightly contrarian view is that she gave the Governing Council a little more room to hold than she had the week before.
9 November 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel's reflections Thursday on the future implementation of monetary policy offered little new guidance on the most consequential unresolved questions in the ECB's operational framework review.
5 November 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank's latest wage tracker offers little evidence that the renewed energy shock is generating significant second-round effects, but has virtually no bearing on the Governing Council's intention to raise interest rates in December.
4 November 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council members speaking since last Thursday’s decision have collectively strengthened the impression that another interest rate increase in December is the central scenario, but offer notably less support for any assumption that tightening will continue beyond then.
3 November 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Hawkishness among European Central Bank policymakers rose sharply last week, driven primarily by ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments following Thursday's Governing Council meeting, as discussion of a possible December interest rate hike gained traction.
2 November 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde made a subtle but potentially meaningful shift in her public language on French sovereign stress on Thursday, invoking the ECB’s anti-fragmentation backstop in an answer about France after previously keeping the emphasis firmly on the responsibility of Paris to fix its own fiscal problems.
30 October 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde offered little explanation at Thursday’s press conference for why she is abandoning her mandate nearly nine months early, beyond saying she wants greater freedom to speak and act on matters outside monetary policy.
29 October 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gave a more hawkish account of Thursday’s policy debate than the balanced decision statement alone suggested, revealing that the Governing Council considered raising rates immediately and saying the direction of policy would be clear if the current assessment were broadly confirmed by December.
29 October 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged Thursday, as expected, gives official expression to the increasingly two-sided policy debate that has emerged since September, balancing the inflationary effects of the energy shock against tighter financial conditions that could reduce the amount of additional tightening required from the ECB itself.
29 October 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank is headed for a hold on Thursday, probably by unanimous decision, with President Christine Lagarde likely to preserve a tightening bias while remaining deliberately noncommittal about the path of rates from here.
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Published: 26th October 2026
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By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The European Central Bank's Governing Council became slightly less hawkish over the past week as its October monetary policy meeting approaches, according to Econostream's ECB Tone Meter, with policymakers increasingly acknowledging that higher borrowing costs could reduce the need for further interest rate hikes.
26 October 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Following is a collection of views expressed by ECB Governing Council members on various topics of high relevance related to next week’s meeting and the further evolution of monetary policy.
23 October 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s possible responses to mounting French fiscal and market tensions extend well beyond the question of whether it would buy French government bonds. Public and other comments amply confirm that the consequences of tighter financial conditions are already entering policymakers’ thinking, even as they insist that France must resolve its own fiscal problems.
22 October 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Notwithstanding our view last April that former German finance minister Jörg Kukies’ move to Morgan Stanley made him an unlikely successor to European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, conversations on the margins of last week’s IMF and World Bank annual meetings suggest that some people continue to consider him an ideal choice.
20 October 2026
By David Barwick and Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Pablo Hernández de Cos may have a fallback awaiting him in Madrid should he fail to become the next European Central Bank president, with the possibility gaining traction in Spain that the former Bank of Spain governor could become the economic heavyweight in a government led by Partido Popular leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo.
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ECB Tone Meter: Tone Turns More Hawkish Despite Lagarde’s Neutral Remarks
19 October 2026
By David Barwick – BANGKOK (Econostream) – Following are key comments by European Central Bank Governing Council member Emmanuel Moulin from an International Monetary Fund presentation and question-and-answer session in Bangkok on Wednesday. The comments have been lightly edited for clarity.
14 October 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Germany’s stated intention to seek another German for the European Central Bank Executive Board seat being vacated by Isabel Schnabel could materially improve former de Nederlandsche Bank Governor Klaas Knot’s chances of succeeding Christine Lagarde if it means that Berlin is scaling back its ambitions for the other top ECB jobs.
12 October 2026