By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane is showing a pronounced reluctance to translate the latest deterioration in the outlook for energy prices into any explicit case, let alone a stronger one, for further interest rate hikes, while increasingly emphasizing forces that could reduce the amount of additional tightening required.
6 October 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank still has a tightening bias, but the speed with which the possibility of an October rate increase has receded, combined with surging long-term yields and the possibility of broader sovereign stress, to our mind raises a question that would have seemed premature only days ago: will the ECB’s next interest rate move even be a hike?
5 October 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s tightening bias became more visible again over the past week, according to Econostream’s ECB Tone Meter, although policymakers continued to show little urgency to raise rates again. Much of the index’s increase was driven by a more detailed and clearly hawkish assessment from Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel.
5 October 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has again declined to pin down when she might leave the ECB, but her comments published Wednesday appear to narrow the likely window for an early departure while leaving intact the possibility that her exit might coincide with that of Chief Economist Philip Lane.
1 October 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel delivered an unmistakably hawkish diagnosis of the inflation outlook on Wednesday, but the monetary policy signal at the end of her speech points away from another interest rate increase at the Governing Council’s October meeting, at least in the absence of a significant deterioration in the coming weeks.
30 September 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The contrast between two European Central Bank Governing Council members who spoke on Tuesday was striking: Peter Kažimír, usually among the most eager to raise rates, stressed that there was time to decide, while Alexander Demarco, a typically cautious voice, set out various ways an October hike could become appropriate.
30 September 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s Governing Council and Executive Board turned markedly less hawkish over the past week, according to Econostream’s ECB Tone Meter, as policymakers continued to retain a tightening bias but showed little urgency to raise rates again.
28 September 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane’s extensive and insightful discussion Wednesday of the euro area outlook offered a considerably more dovish assessment than current market pricing might suggest, strengthening the case for December rather than October as the more likely timing of any next rate increase.
24 September 2026
By David Barwick – GENEVA (Econostream) – Following are key comments by European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane from a presentation and question-and-answer session in Geneva on Wednesday. The comments have been lightly edited for clarity.
23 September 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Philip Lane's warning that inflation is likely to remain “higher for longer” may sound hawkish in isolation, but his interview published Tuesday appears largely to restate the assessment behind the September 10 rate hike rather than signal a heightened need for another move in October.
22 September 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Recent reports on the coming European Central Bank leadership reshuffle have left the outlook strikingly close to the scenario we sketched nearly a year ago: former De Nederlandsche Bank President Klaas Knot succeeding Christine Lagarde as ECB president, with a Frenchwoman — quite possibly Banque de France Second Deputy Governor Agnès Bénassy-Quéré — taking over the chief economist portfolio.
21 September 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s Governing Council turned slightly more hawkish over the past week, according to Econostream’s ECB Tone Meter , but the increase was driven by a sharp shift from Latvijas Banka Governor Mārtiņš Kazāks, masking a softening in the rest of the Council.
21 September 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey, released Friday, does not by itself amount to evidence that inflation expectations are becoming de-anchored, but neither will a rise in expectations at every horizon put policymakers at ease as they assess how far the latest inflation shock may propagate.
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By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn struck a measured note on Thursday on prospects for further monetary policy tightening, remaining less hawkish than some of his peers — a pattern consistent with his positioning in Econostream’s ECB Tone Meter .
17 September 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank's latest wage tracker offers little evidence of renewed excessive wage pressure, but its forward profile confirms that the long decline in negotiated wage growth may be coming to an end just as policymakers are watching for signs that the latest energy shock is feeding into domestic inflation.
16 September 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Econostream’s ECB Tone Meter declined this week across both its Governing Council and Executive Board measures, as policymakers emerged from the September meeting stopping short of calling for another hike, while signaling that further tightening remained a possibility amid elevated inflation risks.
11 September 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank was hawkishly noncommittal on Thursday, presenting its widely expected decision to raise the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.50% as an obvious response to a more persistent inflation overshoot while refusing to offer any indication of when or even in which direction it might move next.
10 September 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25bp on Thursday, as expected, and presented a distinctly less benign medium-term inflation outlook, but stopped short of signaling another increase.
10 September 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – An OMFIF commentary published Tuesday on the race to succeed European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is curious in more ways than one, starting with its treatment of what is arguably the most important information it contains: that Lagarde is expected to announce after Thursday’s Governing Council meeting in Berlin that she intends to leave the ECB early next year.
9 September 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank is all but certain to raise interest rates by another 25bp on Thursday, the more consequential question thus being how it handles expectations that further tightening may still be needed in the months ahead.
8 September 2026