By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – If it ever made sense for European Central Bank Governing Council members to avoid going out on any limbs, it does now, with mere hours to go until US President Donald Trump vents and in doing so initiates a key round of the burgeoning trade conflict.
2 April 2025
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Fabio Panetta, one of the most dovish members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, sounded unexpectedly hawkish on Monday, but we hesitate to infer from this a conviction that the ECB should put its policy easing on pause the week after next.
1 April 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Our last member-by-member review of the European Central Bank Governing Council eight days ago included three changes with respect to the tally of two weeks previously, all three tending to support the idea of an April cut.
1 April 2025
By David Barwick – LONDON (Econostream) – Observers of the European Central Bank who looked to Thursday evening’s event in the British capital with Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel for clues about what the ECB is likely to do next may have been disappointed by the ostensible lack of such hints.
28 March 2025
- As of today, the stage is set more for another cut rather than for a pause
27 March 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Following our initial member-by-member review of the European Central Bank Governing Council exactly two weeks ago, it is time to take another look at where policymakers stand regarding the April decision to cut or to pause.
24 March 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – In the review we published one week ago of where each European Central Bank Governing Council member appeared to stand with respect to April’s monetary policy decision, we had to relegate ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos to the category ‘too unclear to call’. Not anymore.
17 March 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Under the circumstances, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech on Wednesday may have been as newsworthy as it could have been.
12 March 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – An initial member-by-member review of the European Central Bank Governing Council with respect to the appetite to cut interest rates again in April suggests that those in favour of pausing may not be breaking down an open door.
10 March 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – If the natural baseline for assessing European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s performance at Thursday’s press conference as hawkish or dovish is her communication on other recent such occasions, then we must conclude that she was hawkish today.
6 March 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – That the European Central Bank’s Governing Council will cut by 25bp on Thursday is virtually certain; we suppose the cut will be backed unanimously, but if not, then Austrian National Bank Governor Robert Holzmann should be the whole ‘opposition’.
4 March 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Here are some aspects of the interview of European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel with the FT, published Wednesday, that we regard as particularly significant:
19 February 2025
By David Barwick and Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The shrinking of the European Central Bank’s balance sheet at the same time as interest rates are being progressively lowered is not seen by the ECB Governing Council as posing any problem or being contradictory, according to a number of insiders who spoke to Econostream recently.
18 February 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With a March rate cut poised to bring the European Central Bank to within just one more cut of the range it defines as neutral, the ECB may three weeks from today also find the time right to revisit its language.
13 February 2025
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – With the trauma of the last energy crisis still fresh, the latest price spike for such commodities has European Central Bank Governing Council members vigilant but not yet overly concerned about its implications for inflation.
13 February 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The interview published on Thursday with European Central Bank Executive Board Piero Cipollone suggests that there is a dawning realisation on Frankfurt’s East Side that ECB monetary policy may find itself confronting a new reality sooner than some expected.
7 February 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Here are some aspects of the interview of European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos’ with Slovakian business daily Hospodárske Noviny, published Wednesday, that we regard as particularly significant:
5 February 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The press conference following Thursday’s monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council was fully in line with expectations, so with nothing to indicate that the ECB is anything but clearly on track for another 25bp cut in March.
30 January 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – It makes no sense to resent a meeting of the European Central Bank Governing Council, but if it did, then one might feel some animus precisely towards this week’s monetary policy gathering.
28 January 2025
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland came to a close at the end of last week, but the convenient timing of the event just before the European Central Bank’s quiet period ensured a flow of comments from Governing Council members worth looking back at.
28 January 2025