By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel’s newest remarks confirm that a July rate hike is not the European Central Bank’s baseline and underscore the need for the ECB to exercise great caution under the prevailing circumstances.
15 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is fond of assuring markets that they understand the ECB’s reaction function. After the ECB’s June meeting , for example, she said the Governing Council’s job was to “follow carefully the reaction function that you are all familiar with” and to be “as transparent about [it] as possible so that we are predictable.”
14 July 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) - Econostream's ECB Tone Meter declined markedly this week in both its Governing Council and Executive Board measures, with the latter remaining slightly more hawkish than the former, as policymakers sounded less likely early in the week to hike again and were then largely silent following the renewed outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East.
10 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The renewed flare-up of violence in the Middle East has made it harder for the European Central Bank to approach the Governing Council’s July 23 monetary policy meeting as a wait-and-see exercise, but it has yet to make a July rate hike the obvious baseline.
10 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has again managed to say very little about her potential French political future, but in a way that only feeds the speculation.
10 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch has occupied an unusually prominent place in the news recently, and not just for his views on monetary policy.
3 July 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Econostream’s ECB Tone Meter declined further this week in both its Governing Council and Executive Board measures, with the latter remaining more hawkish than the former, as policymakers increasingly signaled that the case for another interest rate hike is receding and a July move appears increasingly unlikely.
3 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – If European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s latest monetary policy comments were still largely about defending the June rate hike, newly installed Banque de France Governor Emmanuel Moulin has already moved on to what is evidently the more important task for anyone at the head of the French central bank: making absolutely sure that no one mistakes June for the start of a new tightening cycle.
3 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – For the second time this week, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s monetary policy comments defended the June rate hike more than they illuminate what comes next.
3 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has now said explicitly what had long been implicit: she could leave the ECB before the expiry of her term at the end of October 2027.
3 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s opening speech in Sintra was dovish, but not because she questioned the Governing Council’s June 11 rate hike – that she did not.
30 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With the notable exception of our interview today with European Central Bank Governing Council member Mārtiņš Kazāks, markets and the ECB have been sending somewhat different messages recently. While investors now see the next Governing Council meeting as very unlikely to bring any policy change, public rhetoric from some of those involved in the decision has not moved nearly as far.
29 June 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Econostream’s ECB Tone Meter continued to decline in both its Governing Council and Executive Board measures, as policymakers have generally refrained from signaling that the ECB should hike interest rates at its next meeting.
26 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel’s interview with Die Zeit is hawkish, at first glance perhaps surprisingly so, but closer inspection argues against overinterpretation.
25 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s July rate decision will depend less on whether the Middle East shock has formally eased than on whether the shock is still working its way into the Eurozone inflation process.
24 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane’s remarks to the European Parliament on Tuesday were broadly consistent with ECB President Christine Lagarde’s statement the day before, but not identical in emphasis.
23 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Next to her June 11 press conference, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s statement on Monday at the European Parliament didn’t let through much daylight. But it let through some.
22 June 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Econostream's ECB Tone Meter registered a noticeable drop for the Governing Council and a smaller decline for the Executive Board this week, as policymakers continued to stress upside inflation risks while refraining from signaling further rate increases as clearly as they had prior to the June meeting.
19 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch has offered a surprisingly strong account of why the European Central Bank might not have needed to raise rates last week, coupled with a weaker defense of why it nonetheless did.
19 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The most important statement at last week’s European Central Bank press conference was President Christine Lagarde’s repeated assertion that the decision to raise interest rates by 25bp was “robust across all scenarios,” a justification that went considerably further than merely invoking the ECB’s baseline forecast.
18 June 2026