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ECB Insight: Schnabel Exit a Loss for Council Hawks, May Help Nagel at Margin

ECB Insight: Schnabel Exit a Loss for Council Hawks, May Help Nagel at Margin

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – A possible early departure of European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel for the International Monetary Fund looks entirely plausible despite her previous declaration that she intended to serve out her term. It would constitute a significant loss for the hawkish wing of the Governing Council.

4 September 2026
ECB Insight: Nagel Works on French Appeal as ECB Succession Looms

ECB Insight: Nagel Works on French Appeal as ECB Succession Looms

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel appears understandably intent on broadening his appeal in France as the contest to succeed ECB President Christine Lagarde heats up, with a strategic interview in French daily Le Monde providing the latest evidence.

2 September 2026
ECB Insight: The Potential Cost of a de Cos ECB Presidency

ECB Insight: The Potential Cost of a de Cos ECB Presidency

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Choosing Bank for International Settlements General Manager Pablo Hernández de Cos as the next European Central Bank president could carry an underappreciated cost for Europe: BIS leadership could pass to another region.

1 September 2026
ECB Insight: Structural Portfolio Likely Tilted Shorter, With Size Left Open

ECB Insight: Structural Portfolio Likely Tilted Shorter, With Size Left Open

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As the European Central Bank works through the unfinished elements of its new operational framework, one of the longer-term questions is how structural reserve provision should eventually be divided between refinancing operations and securities holdings.

28 August 2026
ECB Insight: Structural LTRO Trigger Likely to Be a Judgment Call, Not a Number

ECB Insight: Structural LTRO Trigger Likely to Be a Judgment Call, Not a Number

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As technical work on the European Central Bank's operational framework review gets under way, one of the main pieces of unfinished business is how and when the ECB should begin meeting part of the banking system's recurring liquidity needs through new structural refinancing operations.

27 August 2026
ECB Insight: Lagarde Succession Field Still Favors Knot, With De Cos His Main Rival

ECB Insight: Lagarde Succession Field Still Favors Knot, With De Cos His Main Rival

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Three months after we argued that the remarkable stability of the field of plausible candidates to succeed European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde was increasingly good news for former De Nederlandsche Bank President Klaas Knot, strikingly little has changed in this respect.

25 August 2026
ECB Insight: September Hike Increasingly Likely, Path Thereafter Much Less Clear

ECB Insight: September Hike Increasingly Likely, Path Thereafter Much Less Clear

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – A further 25bp European Central Bank interest rate hike in September looks increasingly likely, with unexpectedly resilient economic activity leaving little obvious reason for policymakers to confound longstanding market expectations – embedded as well in the baseline outlook – of further tightening.

24 August 2026
ECB Insight: Lagarde Rules Out 2026 Exit. So What?

ECB Insight: Lagarde Rules Out 2026 Exit. So What?

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde left herself plenty of room to maneuver on Thursday while appearing to offer reassurances about how long she intends to remain at the ECB.

24 July 2026
ECB Insight: Nagel Offers No Hawkish Wink Toward September

ECB Insight: Nagel Offers No Hawkish Wink Toward September

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel was strikingly neutral after Thursday’s decision, offering none of the mildly hawkish signaling one might ordinarily expect from him.

24 July 2026
ECB Insight: Lagarde Confirms Hike Was Considered, Keeps September Open

ECB Insight: Lagarde Confirms Hike Was Considered, Keeps September Open

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday broadly delivered the expected communication mix, acknowledging, as we anticipated earlier in the day, that some governors had “asked themselves whether we should not consider a hike” while resisting every invitation to turn that discussion into guidance for September.

23 July 2026