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ECB Insight: Will the ECB’s Next Rate Move Even Be a Hike?

ECB Insight: Will the ECB’s Next Rate Move Even Be a Hike?

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank still has a tightening bias, but the speed with which the possibility of an October rate increase has receded, combined with surging long-term yields and the possibility of broader sovereign stress, to our mind raises a question that would have seemed premature only days ago: will the ECB’s next interest rate move even be a hike?

5 October 2026

ECB Tone Meter

Entire Governing Council

27 Members
Very Dovish
Very Hawkish

Executive Board

6 Members
Very Dovish
Very Hawkish

Evolution

Governing Council vs. Executive Board

As of 5 October 2026

Meeting Bias

ECB Governing Council Meeting