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March 18

ECB Insight: Why “Vigilant” Is No Code Word Today

ECB Insight: Why “Vigilant” Is No Code Word Today

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The use of “vigilant” in recent European Central Bank communication should not be mistaken for the return of an old signaling device. The word has plainly become more applicable in a more dangerous inflation environment, and no one should pretend it is unrelated to current risks. But that is very different from conveying a policy intention.

18 March 2026

March 17

ECB’s Nagel Says AI Is Reshaping Work but Not Yet Destroying Jobs

ECB’s Nagel Says AI Is Reshaping Work but Not Yet Destroying Jobs

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel on Tuesday said artificial intelligence was rapidly changing the workplace but was not, for now, eliminating jobs on net in Europe, while arguing that central banks also had to keep pace with digital technologies.

17 March 2026
ECB Insight: Lagarde Likely to Strike High-Alert Tone Without Endorsing Hike Bets

ECB Insight: Lagarde Likely to Strike High-Alert Tone Without Endorsing Hike Bets

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – When it comes to interest rates, the very likely outcome of this week’s meeting of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is another hold. Policymakers’ harder task will again be communication: President Christine Lagarde will want to acknowledge that the Iran war has heightened upside inflation risks, without letting markets infer that a near-term rate hike has effectively become the new baseline.

17 March 2026

March 13

Debt Issuance News

March 18

February 26

February 23

ECB Tone Meter

Entire Governing Council

27 Members
Very Dovish
Very Hawkish

Executive Board

6 Members
Very Dovish
Very Hawkish

Evolution

Governing Council vs. Executive Board

As of 13 March 2026

Meeting Bias

ECB Governing Council Meeting

Insights

ECB Insight: Why “Vigilant” Is No Code Word Today

ECB Insight: Why “Vigilant” Is No Code Word Today

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The use of “vigilant” in recent European Central Bank communication should not be mistaken for the return of an old signaling device. The word has plainly become more applicable in a more dangerous inflation environment, and no one should pretend it is unrelated to current risks. But that is very different from conveying a policy intention.

18 March 2026
ECB Insight: Lagarde Likely to Strike High-Alert Tone Without Endorsing Hike Bets

ECB Insight: Lagarde Likely to Strike High-Alert Tone Without Endorsing Hike Bets

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – When it comes to interest rates, the very likely outcome of this week’s meeting of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is another hold. Policymakers’ harder task will again be communication: President Christine Lagarde will want to acknowledge that the Iran war has heightened upside inflation risks, without letting markets infer that a near-term rate hike has effectively become the new baseline.

17 March 2026
ECB Insight: Iran Shock Raises the Cost of a Lagarde Exit

ECB Insight: Iran Shock Raises the Cost of a Lagarde Exit

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – If European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde wanted to preserve room to leave the ECB before her mandate formally ends on October 31, 2027, the war with Iran has not closed that option. But it has potentially made using it more awkward.

13 March 2026
ECB Insight: Lagarde Plans to Show Attenborough-Narrated Ocean Video Next Week

ECB Insight: Lagarde Plans to Show Attenborough-Narrated Ocean Video Next Week

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is expected to have the Governing Council watch a David Attenborough-narrated video about the massive cost of the destruction of ocean ecosystems next Tuesday evening, according to a person familiar with the agenda of the upcoming monetary policy meeting.

13 March 2026