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ECB Insight: Optionality Without a Tilt

ECB Insight: Optionality Without a Tilt

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With rates to remain unchanged, Thursday’s press conference is mainly a test of message discipline. Recent news has been the kind that some observers treat as inviting reactive messaging, but for months the European Central Bank has kept its tone firmly neutral, and that is the posture we expect again this week.

3 February 2026

Exclusives

Insights

ECB Insight: Optionality Without a Tilt

ECB Insight: Optionality Without a Tilt

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With rates to remain unchanged, Thursday’s press conference is mainly a test of message discipline. Recent news has been the kind that some observers treat as inviting reactive messaging, but for months the European Central Bank has kept its tone firmly neutral, and that is the posture we expect again this week.

3 February 2026
ECB Insight: Rehn’s Post-Vujčić Path to Board Seat Runs Through Spain

ECB Insight: Rehn’s Post-Vujčić Path to Board Seat Runs Through Spain

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Croatian National Bank Governor Boris Vujčić’s elevation to the ECB vice presidency has turned Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn’s next opportunity into a conditional one. The calendar leaves room for at most one more smaller-country appointment before late 2028, and whether that path exists depends critically on what Spain manages to claim in the 2027 succession contest.

26 January 2026

ECB Tone Meter

Entire Governing Council

27 Members
Very Dovish
Very Hawkish

Executive Board

6 Members
Very Dovish
Very Hawkish

Evolution

Governing Council vs. Executive Board

As of 2 February 2026

ECB Tone Meter Weekly Update: Dovish Tilt Emerges Ahead of the Quiet Period

ECB Tone Meter Weekly Update: Dovish Tilt Emerges Ahead of the Quiet Period

By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The ECB’s tone in our ECB Tone Meter moved slightly dovish this week, both for the Governing Council overall and for the Executive Board, as the quiet period began on Thursday. The former settled at 0.00, effectively neutral, while the latter eased to +0.05, remaining marginally positive and therefore still slightly hawkish.

30 January 2026

Meeting Bias

ECB Governing Council Meeting