By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Following is a collection of views expressed by ECB Governing Council members on various topics of high relevance related to next week’s meeting and the further evolution of monetary policy.
June as the decision point:
- Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
18 April 2026
“By June we will have more data and information both about underlying inflation and any signs of indirect effects as well as the evolution of the conflict.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
17 April 2026
The ECB will have more information and greater clarity by mid-June. - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
17 April 2026
“By June, we will have a new set of projections and more information, including April and May inflation … So given higher uncertainty at the moment, June is the more natural horizon for judgment this time.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
16 April 2026
Things would be considerably clear by the time of the ECB’s June meeting. - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
16 April 2026
By June there will be “a lot more information … We’ll have additional inflation figures, more hard data, new projections, and better indication for the development of inflation expectations.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
15 April 2026
“The markets, as for euro area, expect two hikes starting with June. I don’t have anything against it at the moment.” - Pierre Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)
7 April 2026
“The way I feel comfortable putting it is if this is not done by June, I think we’re going to have to hike, but I don’t want to exclude a hike in April … I would say if we are not at the end of it [crisis] by June, we’re probably going to have to hike rates, but if it would morph in some form of financial crisis or tension in financial systems, then it truly becomes much more difficult to manage.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
1 April 2026
“If we don’t have enough information [by April 30], then probably it would be worthwhile to wait until June, when we have updated projections for next three years.”
April meeting:
- Philip Lane (ECB)
22 April 2026
“No one really knows how long the situation will last and by the time of next week, I doubt we’re going to have clarity on that … [The conflict is a] significant shock, but I have not seen anything in the last month to overturn information we had at our March meeting between the baseline and our adverse scenarios.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
20 April 2026
“This double uncertainty about the duration of the shock and the breadth of pass-through argues for gathering more information before drawing firm conclusions for our monetary policy.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
20 April 2026
“If indeed by then, on April 30, the war has stopped, this will be a good basis for those of us who would like not to have an increase. Otherwise, it will be difficult.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
17 April 2026
A meeting-by-meeting approach means “by definition that all meetings are live, and does not mean that we need to necessarily move.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
17 April 2026
“We need to keep an open mind until the meeting, and even when entering the meeting.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
17 April 2026
“The ECB Governing Council needs to keep all options open, also for April.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
17 April 2026
“We don’t have much hard evidence of second-round effects. So it’s difficult to argue that there’s an obvious case to raise rates.” - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
17 April 2026
“In April we will still only have March inflation data, so from that point of view there will not be much additional information. Though as I said, the corporate telephone survey could give some indication of where prices may be heading … The April meeting is not very far off, so other than the corporate telephone survey, there aren’t many other signals that can come from the data itself in the next two weeks. But the corporate telephone survey results would have to really show significant price hikes coming along to require action.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
16 April 2026
“There is no predetermined calendar. A focus on April would be premature.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
16 April 2026
It may “be difficult” to know by April 30 whether the ECB should be concerned about the energy shock and its second-round effects. - Philip Lane (ECB)
16 April 2026
By April 30 the ECB “will have a rich set of survey data, but of course the people who are answering those surveys are looking at the same world we are looking at, which is basically, not too many will have a decisive idea about knowing exactly what is going to happen. There will be some data to assess, but it’s too early to have anything too decisive.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
16 April 2026
“Every meeting is a live meeting and there is two weeks still until April 30. Quite a lot can happen until then and it's not appropriate to provide calendar-based forward guidance.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
16 April 2026
“At present, there is no clarity about how the situation will evolve.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
16 April 2026
“[T]o bet on April [hike] would be premature at this stage.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
15 April 2026
“I would say there is not enough clarity [about] what will happen in April. Two weeks can bring a lot of new information and we will take that into account.” - Pierre Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)
7 April 2026
“The way I feel comfortable putting it is if this is not done by June, I think we’re going to have to hike, but I don’t want to exclude a hike in April.” - Dimitar Radev (Bulgarian National Bank)
7 April 2026
It is too early to say whether the ECB would have enough data by the time of its April 30 meeting, but it will have sufficient data to allow for a more concrete and structured policy decision. - Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
4 April 2026
“There will be new data then [by the April meeting], but that is limited. In a few weeks we’ll be sitting together there in Frankfurt with the Executive Board. Then we’ll have to see what we’re going to do now.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
2 April 2026
It is too early to know whether enough evidence would be available by the ECB’s next monetary policy meeting. - Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
2 April 2026
“Whether action is already required in April, it’s definitely too early to make such generalizations at this point. We can only do guesswork on how the situation in Iran will evolve, what the final consequences will be.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
1 April 2026
“We cannot say today whether we’ll have enough information by April 30. If we don’t have enough information, then probably it would be worthwhile to wait until June, when we have updated projections for next three years.” - Boris Vujčić (Croatian National Bank)
31 March 2026
“Nothing is certain, there will be a lot of data and news by the time of our meeting in April.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
31 March 2026
“We certainly can’t rule out changes in interest rates already in April if energy prices remain at a high level for a long time.” - Pierre Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)
27 March 2026
I am “patient today, but in April, if we’re still there, I might not be patient … But April is not out of the question. If by April we have solid evidence that the shock will be lasting and will lead to a big hike in inflation that that is likely to have some degree of persistence, then we might have to do something, but we still have some time before the April meeting, and I don’t want to take any bet in one or the other direction.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
27 March 2026
“[B]y the next meeting at the end of April there will be more clarity. Then a more informed reflection on a possible intervention will be possible.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
27 March 2026
“Yes, of course [every meeting is live].” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
26 March 2026
“So, when we say that we need to have more information, I think that refers mainly to the information about the developments of the conflict. That is going to be the key variable in order to determine our monetary policy stance.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
25 March 2026
“So every meeting is live. That doesn’t mean the answer for April is yes or no today. It simply means that our modus operandi is to assess conditions meeting by meeting. That approach has served us well, and I support maintaining it. Again, though, I would remain attentive to possible nonlinearities in the behavior of firms and households. And we may have more data on that already in April.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
25 March 2026
A hike in April is “certainly an option, but just one option” … The ECB should have enough data by then to decide whether to proceed, “we shouldn’t shy away from it [hiking in April] now just because we think it’s still too early.” - Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
24 March 2026
The ECB could “act if we see second-round effects,” more evidence on this front should be available by April … Incoming data then would still be “limited” and “the complete picture will not have emerged” by then. - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
24 March 2026
“Of course we won’t delay and we will raise rates … We’ll see. April is very close.” - Boris Vujčić (Croatian National Bank)
24 March 2026
“It’s a long time in today’s world until April. There’ll be a lot of data and news,” and “in such situations, everything is live … the option value of waiting a bit is high.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
23 March 2026
“At the next Governing Council meeting in April, we will have more data on the conflict, which is the main source of uncertainty, and we will decide from there.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
20 March 2026
“[F]or the time being, we are not rushing; we will monitor developments carefully, and at the next meetings – with the next one already in April – we will assess what needs to be done on the monetary policy side.” - Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
20 March 2026
“The next meeting is a live meeting, definitely.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
20 March 2026
More “reliable data” about conditions that could lead to a more restrictive monetary policy should be available by April 30.
Readiness to act if needed:
- Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
22 April 2026
“[W]e will of course move if we see it [is] necessary.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
20 April 2026
“We will ensure that inflation returns to 2% over the medium term. And we will act as the situation demands.” - Álvaro Santos Pereira (Banco de Portugal)
17 April 2026
“Afterwards you just need to see what the data tells us regarding the evolution. Then, I’m sure it will be a decision to act or not, but I think the most important thing is pay close attention to this data and be ready to act.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
16 April 2026
“We will have no hesitation to act if and when necessary, but there is no rush.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
16 April 2026
“It's true we have not seen large second-round impacts materialize up to this point. But this doesn't mean it won't happen and when it does, we need to be ready to act.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
16 April 2026
“So, we will act without hesitation if needed and when needed, but we are not in a precipitation mode.” - Álvaro Santos Pereira (Banco de Portugal)
15 April 2026
We must “be ready to act when needed.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
14 April 2026
“We would need data to act, and we would not hesitate to act.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
10 April 2026
Uncertainty around the conflict could generate an increase in inflation expectations. “And then there, obviously, the central bank has to act.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
2 April 2026
“And mark my words, this time even more so, we will act without haste but without any hesitation if this proves necessary.” - Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
2 April 2026
“There is no reason to doubt that the necessary measures will be taken to bring inflation back to an equilibrium level, to 2% in the medium term.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
30 March 2026
We “are ready to act in this direction if needed.” - Pierre Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)
27 March 2026
“I think so far we were able to communicate the fact that we would react if need be, but that we were not going to rush to do anything that would be looking like overreaction … But I would say, if you are still close to the baseline, that it’s not clear we have to react.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
25 March 2026
“[W]e should remain patient, but be ready to act when necessary. At the ECB, that means every meeting is live and forward guidance is not appropriate.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
27 March 2026
“We should monitor the situation, look at the incoming data, and be ready to act in a timely way if conditions warrant it. But we also don’t need to act prematurely, before we see a clear indication that action is needed.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
26 March 2026
The ECB has the capacity to react “if and when necessary.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
25 March 2026
“I want to say another word about inflation, which is our responsibility: we, the central banks, will do what is necessary to bring inflation back to a maximum of 2% in 2027 and 2028.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
25 March 2026
“[M]onetary policy will do its part. We will keep inflation expectations anchored and ensure price stability over the medium term. In a world of geopolitical shocks, this stability is more important than ever. We will provide a steady hand, which is in short supply today.” - Álvaro Santos Pereira (Banco de Portugal)
25 March 2026
The ECB is “ready to respond to any eventuality.” - Dimitar Radev (Bulgarian National Bank)
23 March 2026
“[W]e will act decisively, based on incoming data, but we will remain measured.” - Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
23 March 2026
“There is little we can do to prevent a spike in inflation in the coming months. However, if we judge that the risk of it remaining above our target for a prolonged period is significant, we will act with appropriate decisiveness to bring inflation back to the target level.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
23 March 2026
“We are ready to respond as necessary. Of course, we are concerned by the situation. Monetary policy cannot prevent the war from having an initial impact on both inflation and growth, but the ECB can monitor the situation and be alert to potential second-round effects.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
20 March 2026
“Given the Iran war and its impact on inflation, it is crucial to remain highly vigilant in monetary policy. Since the medium-term consequences for inflation cannot yet be reliably assessed, a wait-and-see approach is appropriate. We can react quickly if necessary.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
20 March 2026
The ECB has “the capacity to act as much as necessary and when it is necessary” … “Today, I believe that rather than optionality, I would highlight the capacity to act as much as necessary and when it will be necessary.” - Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
20 March 2026
“If the facts point to us having to take action, we’re going to absolutely take action. But in the end, it depends on the evidence.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
19 March 2026
“[W]e start from a good position and we are well positioned to demonstrate our capacity to apply our strategy and to be agile, to do what is necessary.”
Wait-and-see approach:
- Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
22 April 2026
“I am of the opinion that we really shouldn’t increase rates at the next monetary policy meeting.” - Philip Lane (ECB)
22 April 2026
“Until we know more how long this war is going to last, it is really hard to know whether this is going to prove to be a temporary phase or a much bigger shock to the European economy.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
22 April 2026
“So, given the uncertainty and the high hopes that this war might end soon … we should wait … all the estimates we have is that inflation for the moment … could be less than in our baseline scenario this year given the current circumstances and if the war ends soon. So, I think we should give an opportunity to negotiators that the war will not continue and the situation will normalize soon.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
22 April 2026
“We are not in a rush. We still have the large luxury of collecting data and forming our view … [We can] monitor what happens and then take the decision when we have the broader picture.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
21 April 2026
“We must be prudent, keep a cool head, and somehow analyze the data in an environment of great uncertainty.” - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
18 April 2026
“I do not see any necessity for us to take hasty decisions on rates because although we are no longer in a good place, we are however at a good starting point to face this shock.” - Álvaro Santos Pereira (Banco de Portugal)
17 April 2026
“At this stage we just need to see what will happen, in terms of the data. Keep our cool heads and say, ‘OK, we’ve seen supply shocks before.’” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
17 April 2026
“We’re still very much in a monitoring mode: we’re cautious to see what happens with spillovers, what happens with second-round effects, and so far we have not seen much. That reduces somewhat the necessity to move instantaneously.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
17 April 2026
“It makes sense to clearly communicate that we are not accepting an inflation development that is not in line with our mandate. But it also doesn’t make sense to pre-empt something that doesn’t happen later on.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
17 April 2026
“Thanks to the starting point we can perhaps be a little bit more patient and we don’t need to rush action. But of course we don’t want to be hesitant and fall behind the curve.” - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
17 April 2026
“So, I do not really see much pressure to be hasty and raise rates. I think we need more solid evidence that underlying inflation is really moving in the wrong direction.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
16 April 2026
“We will have no hesitation to act if and when necessary, but there is no rush.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
16 April 2026
“In these times of pervasive uncertainty, monetary policy must be conducted with a steady hand, depending above all on the duration of the conflict and the damage it inflicts … Calm judgment will prevail over haste, and no decisions are predetermined.” - Álvaro Santos Pereira (Banco de Portugal)
15 April 2026
“The most important thing for a central bank is to pay attention very closely to the data, which we always do, keep our cool heads and see what we have learned from the past, in particular comparing 2022 to current situation, and be ready to act.” - Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
15 April 2026
“We have a monetary policy that is broadly neutral, and this means we can afford to take the time that is needed in order to analyze the character of this shock, and we do not need to rush into action.” - Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
14 April 2026
“We must make sure that we calculate our response and we don’t make the problem worse.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
14 April 2026
“[I]nterest rate decisions are not locked in beforehand.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
8 April 2026
“[T]here is no rush to take action and we could wait for our future meetings, when we will have significantly more information about how things will unfold and what the consequences will be.” - Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
2 April 2026
“Whether action is already required in April, it’s definitely too early to make such generalizations at this point. We can only do guesswork on how the situation in Iran will evolve, what the final consequences will be.” - Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
1 April 2026
“We held rates at 2% because the outlook is genuinely uncertain. But we are learning to live with uncertainty and to not be paralyzed by it. We have a framework for monitoring how the outlook evolves and a credible commitment to act when data clarifies the direction of travel. And as I said, we are not pre-committing to a path and not ruling options in or out.” - Fabio Panetta (Banca d’Italia)
31 March 2026
“In such an uncertain and ever-shifting environment, it will be essential to monitor expectations closely and to prevent a wage-price spiral, while ensuring that monetary policy action remains proportionate and consistent with the ECB’s mandate.” - Philip Lane (ECB)
30 March 2026
“So, we will be looking at all of these considerations. No paralysis, but no kind of preemption either.” - Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
27 March 2026
“We have to be agile. We have to be vigilant, but there is no need to rush into action.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
25 March 2026
“It is too early to say where on this spectrum we will need to be.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
20 March 2026
“[F]or the time being, we are not rushing; we will monitor developments carefully, and at the next meetings – with the next one already in April – we will assess what needs to be done on the monetary policy side.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
20 March 2026
“The fact that we once again did not change interest rates does not mean that everything is now calm or that the outlook has not changed.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
20 March 2026
“[I]t is wise for us to wait for clearer signs of the potential impact of the energy price shock before changing interest rates. There is currently a great deal of uncertainty about the economic impact of the Iran war, and it is not wise to rush into a dark room … it is too early to express a clear opinion on how the central bank would react to the new economic situation by changing interest rates.”
Reluctance to hike:
- Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
18 April 2026
“For now, it’s a bigger risk to rush raising rates and do some undue damage to the economy if it turns out that such a step wasn’t necessary compared to the risk of waiting a bit longer and perhaps have to catch up as we currently have credibility on our side to do that … There’s no need to rush action. And we also see some tightening of financial conditions. That also helps.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
16 April 2026
“[T]o bet on April [hike] would be premature at this stage.” - Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
15 April 2026
“And of course … we do not want to impose any unnecessary costs on the economy, so that has to also be part of our thinking.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
2 April 2026
“Nobody wants to raise rates. It would hit an economy that is not growing strongly anyway.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
1 April 2026
“When the war stops, yes, we will have, let’s say, side effects. Inflation will not fall overnight, but it will not last long. In my opinion, we will return to normality after a certain period of time.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
31 March 2026
A rate hike is “not guaranteed” after the latest euro-area inflation reading, as the figure was “expected.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
30 March 2026
“Inflation in the euro area has been around the 2% target for almost a year and, in fact, has slightly undershot our symmetric target in the first two months of this year. This provides some slack for future rate tightening.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
30 March 2026
“[T]he debate on pre-established dates appears very premature.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
26 March 2026
There has been “some overinterpretation of statements regarding a supposed timetable for rate hikes,” this debate is “premature.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
25 March 2026
“[On the 2011-14 oil price surge following the Arab Spring] Do I need to remind us that the ECB’s two subsequent rate hikes of spring 2011 were reversed in November and December 2011?” - Álvaro Santos Pereira (Banco de Portugal)
25 March 2026
“Speculating about interest rates now would be more than premature.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
20 March 2026
“It [the direction of the next move] will depend on developments … the conflict that is setting in … is gaining in intensity rather in the direction that you say [hikes], we cannot totally exclude a scenario in the other direction even if it is obviously much less probable today.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
20 March 2026
“Current inflation in the euro area and longer-term inflation expectations remain close to the ECB's 2% target, although we see price increases in the coming months. Against this background, the Governing Council of the ECB decided yesterday to keep key interest rates unchanged. Any other policy decision at this stage would have been premature.”
Possibility of no policy response:
- Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
16 April 2026
“For me, the baseline scenario is that this is an exogenous supply shock where inflation won’t be higher in the medium term. In this case, we won’t have any interest rate hikes.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
15 April 2026
“Even with the 50bp pricing, if you take a look at real rates, we’re still talking about real rates being flat and in my view that is very much consistent with looking through.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
14 April 2026
“Then you have anything in between these two [short-lived shock and long-lasting shock] which may or may not require that we act upon this situation.”
Openness to looking through the shock:
- Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
17 April 2026
“If they [companies] said costs were increasing significantly and they could not absorb them and would have to pass them on the consumers, then I would not exclude a case for acting. But if they do not intend to implement a significant increase in prices, we could look through that.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
16 April 2026
“The first is that the damage on energy markets remains limited in time and scale. In that case, it could be possible though by no means certain that the rise in energy prices could be “looked through” in monetary policy.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
6 April 2026
“If energy cost pressures prove short-lived, the shock can be looked through. But if they turn out to be stronger and more persistent, affecting medium-term inflation expectations and wage developments, a tighter monetary policy stance is to be expected.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
25 March 2026
“Small, one-off and short-lived supply shocks can be looked through. But as expected deviations from our inflation target grow larger and more persistent, the case for action becomes stronger.” - José Luis Escrivá (Banco de España)
20 March 2026
“[S]ometimes there are situations that subside and do not necessarily entail a change in interest rates.”
Maintaining optionality:
- Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
17 April 2026
“The ECB Governing Council needs to keep all options open, also for April … We are in a very volatile world, making it all the more important to remain flexible and agile.” - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
17 April 2026
“The point is to leave everything open and retain optionality. Of course, it is not full optionality in the sense that interest rates can go down. The consensus is that easing is off the table. But the optionality between raising rates and keeping them unchanged, that was the message we gave last time, and I trust that is how it was understood. If there are signals that inflation is going to rise above our target over the medium term, then we would have to respond.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
14 April 2026
“[W]e have to be open. It would be a serious mistake today to say that this is a case of look-through because we don’t know, it’s too soon to tell.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
14 April 2026
“We have to be completely agile and ready to move in the direction that is required. But it does not predicate as we speak today … that we will go in one direction or the other and it certainly doesn’t determine a rate path that I can confirm today. And any of the colleagues who are confident that it is going to be one way or the other don’t know, honestly.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
2 April 2026
“Now we have full optionality, and we can react quickly or give ourselves some time, depending on what kind of signals we get … makes sense to have a steady hand.”
Debate over tightening bias:
- Christine Lagarde (ECB)
14 April 2026
“No [tightening bias at the ECB]. I think there’s, we have a compass which indicates price stability predicated on financial stability. Those are the two. I wouldn’t call them bias.” - Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
4 April 2026
Rates in April “will either stay the same, or go up – I think that will be the discussion.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
2 April 2026
“Obviously, the next change in key interest rates is highly likely to be upwards.”
Conditional case for rate hikes:
- Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
22 April 2026
“But if this [war ending soon] is not the case and it continues, then you should have no doubt that we’ll do what is necessary, as we did it before.” - Álvaro Santos Pereira (Banco de Portugal)
20 April 2026
“If the data start telling us that we have issues with significantly higher prices and inflation expectations, we’ll need to act. Otherwise, we need to monitor and decide.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
17 April 2026
“If we see that it starts to spill further – that workers push for higher wage increases, that corporates start to reprice more often – of course we need to move in.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
17 April 2026
“[I]f current price increases spill over to medium-term inflation, e.g. via higher longer-term inflation expectations, we would have to act.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
17 April 2026
“If we have enough confidence that this [second-round effects] is likely to happen, we should act.” - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
17 April 2026
“If they [companies] said costs were increasing significantly and they could not absorb them and would have to pass them on the consumers, then I would not exclude a case for acting. But if they do not intend to implement a significant increase in prices, we could look through that.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
16 April 2026
“If we see that the situation is deteriorating, converging to the adverse or even the severe scenario, that there is no way that the conflict will end, then maybe a signal that acting sooner rather than later might be a solution.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
16 April 2026
“The second is that the ceasefire fails to hold, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the conflict becomes protracted. If this were to generate second-round effects on prices and wages and if inflation expectations were to become unanchored, monetary policy would need to be tightened in line with our strategy – decisively and forcefully.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
15 April 2026
“If they [second-round inflation effects] tend to kick in … then we need to move. At the moment, I think we are in a comfortable situation.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
13 April 2026
“The rise in interest rates will depend on second-round effects.” - Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
9 April 2026
“A prolonged high oil price ultimately trickles down to the prices of other products, and consequently to wage formation, which can amplify inflationary effects. In that case, the ECB will naturally intervene to keep inflation around 2% in the medium term.” - Dimitar Radev (Bulgarian National Bank)
7 April 2026
“If the shock persists and begins to affect wages, margins and expectations, the cost of inaction would increase. In such a situation, acting in a timely manner would be the more prudent course.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
6 April 2026
“If energy cost pressures prove short-lived, the shock can be looked through. But if they turn out to be stronger and more persistent, affecting medium-term inflation expectations and wage developments, a tighter monetary policy stance is to be expected.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
2 April 2026
“It is far too early to predict a timetable for ECB interest rate rises but it is clear that we have the capacity to act when and in whatever way necessary.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
1 April 2026
“If there is a sign that higher energy prices will seep into other parts of the economy fairly quickly, and inflation expectations will rise quickly because of the memory effect, then we would need to consider acting sooner rather than later, in part to preserve our credibility.” - Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
31 March 2026
The longer the Iran war and the more damage it causes, “the greater the risk of inflation will be,” meaning the ECB will have to respond “sooner and more decisively.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
30 March 2026
“The policy implication is clear. If signs were to emerge that second-round effects are gaining traction, or that inflation expectations are beginning to drift, the ECB will have to respond quickly to help ensure that inflationary pressures do not become entrenched in expectations.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
30 March 2026
If the assumptions of the baseline worsened, “monetary policy decisions will also be affected accordingly, to prevent second-round inflationary effects.” - Pierre Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)
27 March 2026
“If the conflict is not over by June, then we are most probably way above our baseline, and that would probably warrant some kind of reaction.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
27 March 2026
“You could argue that once we are sufficiently confident that second-round effects are very likely – in addition to the more immediate indirect pass-through of higher energy prices into some goods and services – it would already be reasonable for the ECB to consider raising rates.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
26 March 2026
“If inflation expectations start to be de-anchored, then the ECB will have to react. So this is the issue. And I think that inflation expectations are going to be extremely interconnected with the duration and the expansion of the conflict. That's why having additional information about the evolution of the war in the Middle East is going to be crucial for us.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
25 March 2026
“Second, if the shock gives rise to a large though not-too-persistent overshoot of our target, some measured adjustment of policy could be warranted. The optimal response to such a deviation is smaller when the cause is exogenous supply disruptions rather than strong demand, but it is not necessarily zero. Moreover, to leave such an overshoot entirely unaddressed could pose a communication risk: the public may find it difficult to understand a reaction function that does not react. Third, if we expect inflation to deviate significantly and persistently from target, the response must be appropriately forceful or persistent. Otherwise, self-reinforcing mechanisms would kick in and the risk of de-anchoring would become acute … It is too early to say where on this spectrum we will need to be.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
25 March 2026
“If I saw signs that inflation was becoming entrenched and spreading across sectors, with meaningful second-round effects, then an early move would be warranted to contain it before those dynamics intensified.” - Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
24 March 2026
The ECB could “act if we see second-round effects,” more evidence on this front should be available by April. - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
24 March 2026
“Financial markets are expecting those two increases, by the end of the year by about 50bp. And is that a plausible scenario? Quite possibly. But whether that will happen we’ll see. Because we don’t know how long the conflict will last, or what the oil price will be.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
20 March 2026
“As things currently stand, it is conceivable that the medium-term inflation outlook could deteriorate and inflation expectations could rise on a sustained basis, meaning that a more restrictive monetary policy stance would probably be necessary.”
Scope for multiple or larger hikes:
- Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
22 April 2026
“[I]f necessary, we can move in bigger steps.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
16 April 2026
“One move of 25bp wouldn’t do much more than signaling.” - Pierre Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)
7 April 2026
“In a way, hiking 25bp wouldn’t change much.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
27 March 2026
“One hike would imply that the war in the Middle East had a sufficient impact on inflation outlook to call for ECB action. At the same time, it would still suggest that the war ends relatively soon without energy prices staying elevated for an extended period and has only a limited impact. In that sense, yes, we would be fortunate. But even so, each hike is meaningful in itself. One decision does not automatically imply another … very dramatic moves are unlikely to be necessary.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
25 March 2026
“But it is true that a single isolated hike would be somewhat unusual. Ultimately, it depends on the size and persistence of the shock. If the objective can be achieved with less tightening, then there is no reason to do more than necessary. Still, if one hike alone were enough, that would amount to a lucky coincidence.”
Leaning toward rate hikes:
- Pierre Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)
7 April 2026
“And of course, last time we were a little bit late, team transitory, before acting. So, this is something probably we have to draw the lessons from.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
25 March 2026
“This is certainly a situation in which every passing day contributes to an increase in inflationary risks, particularly with regard to what interests us most from a monetary policy perspective: how medium-term inflation expectations will evolve.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
24 March 2026
“Of course we won’t delay and we will raise rates … We’ll see. April is very close.” - Boris Vujčić (Croatian National Bank)
24 March 2026
“I don’t think that one or two hikes would do much harm to the economy … you have to ask yourself whether they’re needed or not, because some would also argue that one or two cuts wouldn’t do too much good to the economy.”
Market expectations:
- Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
22 April 2026
“Already markets are even more optimistic than we are in our baseline scenario.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
17 April 2026
“The baseline is built on the market pricing of two hikes and as long as baseline approximately holds, I would not object to a similar market pricing.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
17 April 2026
“We do not have to deliver on specific [rate] expectations.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
17 April 2026
I do not “have a view of market expectations being completely unreasonable.” - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
17 April 2026
“[I]t [markets tightening financial conditions] does not mean that we can do nothing just because the market itself has tightened. Part of the market tightening is probably due to expectations of more fiscal expenditure. If such tightening impacts appreciably demand, then the argument for a much tighter policy could weaken.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
16 April 2026
“Just because the market expected hikes when we put together the projections doesn’t mean we will need to do them.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
16 April 2026
“I find those expectations [of two hikes in 2026] to be reasonable.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
16 April 2026
“Market expectations are more linked to what I call the reference scenario.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
15 April 2026
“Markets have tightened a bit, we can see where the data leads us. The markets, as for euro area, expect two hikes starting with June. I don’t have anything against it at the moment. Let’s see how it develops but of course at some point we will have to deliver … We have seen that the markets have already been pricing this [in], so it is helping us currently. But when the data will come in, we will move.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
14 April 2026
“But don’t forget one thing: the baseline and all our scenarios are designed and formulated with the incorporation of what the market assumes and no other monetary policy or fiscal decision affecting baseline or either of the two scenarios.” - Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
8 April 2026
“Does it [two hikes in 2026, as expected by markets] necessarily have to happen? No, not necessarily.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
1 April 2026
“We will not be simply driven by market expectations. But we will for sure do whatever we can to bring inflation down to our 2% target in the medium term.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
31 March 2026
It is “better to assess monetary policy carefully,” even though “markets clearly price in rate hikes from the ECB.” - Pierre Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)
27 March 2026
I am “comfortable with what I see in the market,” but “market signals or reaction will be different next week and the week after next.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
26 March 2026
There has been “some overinterpretation of statements regarding a supposed timetable for rate hikes,” this debate is “premature.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
26 March 2026
Markets are discounting a “benign” scenario, which is “very close” to the ECB’s baseline. - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
25 March 2026
“Market expectations may be reasonable, but at this stage we simply do not know.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
24 March 2026
“Financial markets are expecting those two increases, by the end of the year by about 50bp. And is that a plausible scenario? Quite possibly.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
20 March 2026
“But if we look at financial market pricing, then financial markets expect that rates during this year will be raised. And that Euribor has risen a little. But at this moment we have decided to leave central bank rates at the current level. And then we will see, looking at how the economy develops.” - Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
20 March 2026
“I can well understand why they [markets] have assumed that [two ECB hikes in 2026]. But we have no predetermined path.”
Baseline vs adverse scenario:
- Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
22 April 2026
“But for the moment we are very close to our baseline scenario … let’s say between the baseline and the adverse scenario.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
20 April 2026
“But so far, we have not seen energy prices rise far enough to push us squarely into our adverse scenario.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
17 April 2026
“With regard to market expectations for oil and gas prices, we are currently between the baseline and the adverse scenario. However, this can change again very quickly, with prices moving in either direction.” - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
17 April 2026
“To be honest, we may seem to be moving toward the adverse scenario at the current juncture, so I am not sure that we will get through this episode without any rate hike at all. Energy prices are going to be higher than the pre-war level for longer. Things can change, but I am not seeing them change in the right direction. Still, everything is possible. If there were some agreement tomorrow and this all stopped, then there might be no need, even though restoring the infrastructure and hence supply to pre-war levels requires some time.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
16 April 2026
Lower energy prices move the outlook closer to the baseline. - Álvaro Santos Pereira (Banco de Portugal)
15 April 2026
“There is still a lot of uncertainty, uncertainty also surrounding the second-round effects, so right now keeping our cool heads is important.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
15 April 2026
“I would say we are somewhere in between our baseline scenario and our adverse scenario. Now we have to find out where it’s going, if it goes back to the baseline scenario, I’m a very happy person.” - José Luis Escrivá (Banco de España)
15 April 2026
Over the last six weeks, the central scenario has tracked developments “very closely.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
14 April 2026
“No question [we are going towards the adverse scenario]. It changes on a daily basis, so we have to update regularly and be mindful of potential changes.” - Boris Vujčić (Croatian National Bank)
13 April 2026
“While prices have increased somewhat since last week for oil and gas, we are still very close to the baseline scenario.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
10 April 2026
“If it [Middle East conflict] evolves positively in the sense of a peace agreement, a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, etcetera, then obviously the situation will be much, much better. We will be closer to our central scenario.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
8 April 2026
“In reality, we are moving from bad to very bad, or the worst possible outcomes in both inflation and economic growth. We can undoubtedly expect higher inflation and slightly lower economic growth.” - Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
8 April 2026
“I would think that the situation is moving toward the less favorable scenario.” - Dimitar Radev (Bulgarian National Bank)
7 April 2026
“While the baseline remains our reference, the likelihood of a more adverse scenario has increased, particularly in light of the energy shock and the elevated level of uncertainty.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
2 April 2026
“As of today, 2 April, we are closer to the intermediate adverse scenario than to the baseline scenario adopted by the ECB on 19 March.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
2 April 2026
“Price increases that we have seen at times over the last two weeks are above the baseline scenario, and we haven’t seen any improvements.” - Fabio Panetta (Banca d’Italia)
2 April 2026
“The macroeconomic projections of the European Central Bank, released two weeks ago, already included two unfavorable scenarios, today more plausible than they were at the time of publication.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
1 April 2026
“My personal impression is that baseline scenario appears to be more like a best-case scenario for the future and probably the current adverse scenario is more likely to be our next baseline.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
31 March 2026
“The base-case scenario … can probably be considered to be the optimistic scenario.” - Fabio Panetta (Banca d’Italia)
31 March 2026
“Even in the event of a rapid ceasefire, a return to orderly conditions in the energy market would take some time.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
30 March 2026
“The war, if sustained, is bound to produce stagflationary effects, that is higher inflation and lower growth. In this case, our ECB baseline scenario will no longer be valid.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
27 March 2026
“[W]e can conclude that they [the June projections] will be somewhat worse.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
26 March 2026
“We are facing a real shock… probably beyond what we can imagine at the moment,” there is “no way” lost energy capacity could be restored within months, disruptions could persist for “years.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
25 March 2026
“As for the alternative scenarios, we should not jump to the conclusion that they have already materialized.” - Philip Lane (ECB)
25 March 2026
“If I did it [an assessment of the shock using an ECB synthetic indicator] this week, I think it’s more like a medium-to-large shock,” rather than a medium shock, which is what it was considered to be on 19 March. - Boris Vujčić (Croatian National Bank)
24 March 2026
The economy is already moving away from the baseline toward worst-case scenarios.
Second-round effects:
- Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
17 April 2026
“[W]e’re cautious to see what happens with spillovers, what happens with second-round effects, and so far we have not seen much. That reduces somewhat the necessity to move instantaneously.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
17 April 2026
“There’s anecdotal evidence for some of these second-round effects, but it’s not yet widespread. Medium-term inflation expectations are still quite well anchored.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
17 April 2026
“The effects [of the energy shock] on medium-term inflation are still very uncertain.” - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
17 April 2026
“Also, it is still early for indirect effects. There are some signs; for example, anecdotal evidence suggests airfares have gone up. We may see more of that later on, in the coming weeks or months. But the data so far has not been alarming … Another thing to watch is inflation expectations, which so far seem to be well anchored.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
16 April 2026
“Given the recent experience with inflation, firms may respond more quickly in adjusting pricing, and workers are likely to be quicker in demanding wage adjustments. This could make the whole inflation cycle ignite quicker.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
16 April 2026
“It's true we have not seen large second-round impacts materialize up to this point. But this doesn't mean it won't happen and when it does, we need to be ready to act.” - Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
15 April 2026
Inflation expectations can be “more fragile,” because “the memory of high inflation is still very fresh.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
15 April 2026
“Inflation seems to be well anchored, but this can change.” - José Luis Escrivá (Banco de España)
15 April 2026
“So far we haven’t seen too much change [in inflation expectations].” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
13 April 2026
“[A] higher number of companies [according to the Banque de France’s monthly survey] indicate that they will increase their selling prices in the month of April. We were at 11% of industrial companies increasing their prices in March, which is roughly the usual rate, but we would be at 23% in the month of April. This is obviously a point to monitor closely.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
10 April 2026
“If at some point inflation expectations rise, that could trigger an inflationary spiral. That is what would concern us, and it has not happened yet. Inflation expectations are relatively contained and anchored around our definition of price stability.” - Pierre Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)
7 April 2026
“I guess now the question is, okay, the shock might be a little bit less important from a European perspective than it was back then [2022]. But at the same time, it might be that firms say, ‘Okay, we don’t want to be the last one to raise our prices.’ They might react more quickly.” - Dimitar Radev (Bulgarian National Bank)
7 April 2026
“Recent inflation developments appear to have increased the responsiveness of expectations, meaning that pass-through from new shocks can occur more quickly than under normal conditions.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
6 April 2026
“These [adverse effects of the shock on growth and inflation] are likely to worsen if the crisis is prolonged or spreads across the region. Against this background, the balance of risks to the global and euro area economies has deteriorated significantly.” - Dimitar Radev (Bulgarian National Bank)
3 April 2026
“When external shocks last longer, they rarely remain confined into one sector. What starts with energy can gradually spread through the wider economy. That matters for monetary conditions, of course, but it also matters directly for businesses.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
2 April 2026
“[T]he utmost vigilance is required: market inflation expectations have risen sharply; we do not yet have those of businesses and households. And our macroeconomic models may underestimate more negative microeconomic consequences: disruption to certain supply chains for plastics or other related products; and the temptation for companies – even in other sectors not directly affected by the initial shock – to pre-empt price increases.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
1 April 2026
“Second-round effects might not take as long to take hold as in our last inflation episode. People and firms have a fresh memory of the inflation spike in 2022. And this is one of our biggest worries.” - Pierre Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)
27 March 2026
“If the economy weakens fast, then the second-round effects might be limited, which might warrant less of a move.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
27 March 2026
“Once energy prices have stayed elevated for some time, I am sure we would soon begin to see at least some indirect effects. That is still somewhat different from second-round effects … Once energy prices have remained elevated for several weeks, one can already be reasonably confident that second-round effects are likely.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
26 March 2026
“[W]e must remain extremely vigilant regarding the second-round effects.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
25 March 2026
“[I do] not [see second-round effects] to any significant extent yet. What I see at this stage is the possibility of second-round effects, not clear evidence of them. That is something we need to be attentive to. The fiscal response will be critical here. If governments resort to overly broad support measures, the likelihood of nonlinear effects rises substantially.” - Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
24 March 2026
The ECB could “act if we see second-round effects,” more evidence on this front should be available by April. - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
24 March 2026
The conflict has caused “[d]isruption in shipping, disruption in insurance costs and significant increases in the price of energy, which as we know is necessary for all economies and has ripple effects in a matter of months.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
24 March 2026
The ECB must prevent second-round effects. - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
24 March 2026
“It’s important that we’re keeping a very close eye” on second-round effects. There is no evidence yet in the data that such effects have begun to emerge. - Boris Vujčić (Croatian National Bank)
24 March 2026
The risk of second-round effects is smaller now than in 2022. - Dimitar Radev (Bulgarian National Bank)
23 March 2026
There are “some indications” of second-round effects. - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
20 March 2026
“Monetary policy cannot prevent a short-term rise in inflation resulting from an energy price shock. However, it must act when second-round effects become apparent and longer-term inflation expectations rise above the inflation target, because then high inflation threatens to become entrenched.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
19 March 2026
“And there is a bit of propagation actually, some of it being judgmental. Some indirect effects, some secondary effects as well.”
Stagflation:
- Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
17 April 2026
“I think that concern [about stagflation] is overstated. For example, IMF forecasts for Germany show a slight reduction in growth, falling a bit below 1% in 2026. That is not stagflation, not in Germany and not in the euro area, where the IMF expects growth of 1.1%. We should avoid creating self-fulfilling prophecies.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
30 March 2026
“The war, if sustained, is bound to produce stagflationary effects, that is higher inflation and lower growth.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
27 March 2026
“I do not think it is appropriate to speak of stagflation. To me, that remains a tail risk.” - Boris Vujčić (Croatian National Bank)
24 March 2026
The euro area is not yet in stagflation, but “the risk is moving into the direction of stagflation.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
20 March 2026
“I heard a lot the word stagflation, which would be at the same time a stagnation of activity and then an inflation that settles. It is not what it is about.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
19 March 2026
“The war, if sustained, is bound to produce stagflationary effects, that is higher inflation and lower growth.”
Growth outlook:
- Álvaro Santos Pereira (Banco de Portugal)
20 April 2026
“There’s a hit to the European economy, but it hasn’t been dramatic. But of course, all depends on how big the conflict becomes and its duration … It’s [European economic growth] not stagnation, but it’s close.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
20 April 2026
“On one side, households and firms have just lived through a large inflation shock and may be more sensitive to rising costs. The muscle memory is fresh. Incoming surveys suggest that the selling price expectations of firms have increased, and that households are already paying more attention to inflation. On the other side, higher energy prices and weaker consumer sentiment will weigh on demand, particularly given that growth, while recovering, was moderate before the conflict began. That could limit the extent of price and wage increases. In the two most recent comparable episodes – the Gulf War of 1990-91 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine – oil supply shocks reduced euro area GDP by around 0.4% on average in the first year. The relative importance of these forces will only become clear as we see actual data on firms' pricing behavior and wage negotiations.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
17 April 2026
“If shortages set in very quickly and tilt the economy closer to a recession, inflation pressures may turn out to be much, much weaker. Then, of course, you might need to switch your monetary policy in the opposite direction. You might need to cut.” - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
17 April 2026
“Economic activity might also weaken more if there were shortages and supply bottlenecks, and that could also have a dampening effect on inflation, including via wages.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
7 April 2026
“So there are risks and they are downwards, downwards. Significant risks, I must say. As long as this escalation continues.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
1 April 2026
“At the moment, no one is saying that we will enter a recession, at least for the time being, but if it continues, if we go to scenarios above 150 dollars per barrel, nothing is excluded.” - Pierre Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)
27 March 2026
“If the economy weakens fast, then the second-round effects might be limited, which might warrant less of a move.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
23 March 2026
“No, we don’t expect it [the conflict] to [trigger a recession]. Even in the most severe scenarios, we are still seeing positive growth, but I wouldn’t focus too much on the specific figures. Forecasts are always difficult, and even more so in the current context.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
20 March 2026
“I think that we cannot exclude the risk of recession today, if this war continues for a long time [and] this negative effect on energy resource prices and on production capacity is considerably larger than we have seen so far. But at the same time maybe that conflict ends very quickly, so uncertainty is high.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
20 March 2026
“Euro area growth is predicted to remain sluggish in the coming years.”
Comparisons with past inflation shocks:
- Álvaro Santos Pereira (Banco de Portugal)
17 April 2026
“It’s a bit different from 2022 because in 2022 we had a significant demand shock, with some choke points and bottlenecks in certain parts of the world economy, freight rates were going up.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
16 April 2026
“Every shock is different. Crises are not twin sisters.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
8 April 2026
“Today we are actually in a position where inflation is close to our 2%. Inflation expectations are also within this framework. The economic picture, that is the real economy, is better, more resilient. There is some positive economic growth. Another important fact is that fiscal policy today is less expansionary than it was in the post-pandemic period. And monetary policy is also different. Today we are kind of at a neutral 2% interest rate, in a neutral position, as far as monetary policy is concerned.” - Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
2 April 2026
“We have a much smaller shock than we had in 2022.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
30 March 2026
“During the 2021-2022 inflation spike, inflation expectations remained contained -- the euro area 5-year/5-year forward inflation-linked swap rate stayed below 3% throughout that episode, despite the fact that actual inflation reached double-digit levels. Reflecting the well-anchored inflation expectations, nominal wage growth was initially relatively subdued, while real wages declined sharply before gradually recovering, as workers sought to recoup the purchasing power eroded by the inflation surge. Crucially, there was no wage-price spiral. That pattern of contained nominal wage growth may be more difficult to achieve this time around, if the war in the Middle East continues, for two main reasons.” - Philip Lane (ECB)
30 March 2026
“2026 is not 2022. We don’t have the strong pandemic reopening effects. The labor market is softer than it was then.” - Pierre Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)
27 March 2026
“We have the textbook, and we need to find a middle way between what we have in the textbook, which is we don't react, and the experience we had in 2022. But in 2022, of course, there were a lot of bottlenecks in the system, very tight labor markets. You had a lot of fiscal support coming out of the COVID crisis, and that's not the situation we are in today. The labor market is a bit weaker in Europe.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
27 March 2026
Compared with 2022, the euro area is now in “a significantly better position” in terms of both inflation and growth. - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
27 March 2026
“[W]e are in a very different situation from 2022, when we did move in larger steps. At that time, rates were at minus 0.5% and inflation was already well above target. The starting conditions were completely different, and we needed to catch up with a rapidly changing situation. Now, by contrast, inflation was at 2% before the war began, and interest rates were already more or less around neutral. That means we are in a much better starting position to respond to whatever happens.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
25 March 2026
The current shock differs from those of 1973 and 1979, as those were “permanent,” whereas current price pressures, like in 2022, are expected to ease over time. - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
25 March 2026
“[On the 2011-14 oil price surge following the Arab Spring] Do I need to remind us that the ECB’s two subsequent rate hikes of spring 2011 were reversed in November and December 2011?” - Dimitar Radev (Bulgarian National Bank)
23 March 2026
The ECB is now “in a much better position to address challenges ahead” than in the 2022 inflation shock. - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
20 March 2026
“Whether the oil shock will generate longer-term inflationary pressure will be significantly affected by the general economic and labor market conditions. In 2022, when energy prices rose, the euro area economy was recovering strongly from the worst phase of the COVID crisis, but now geopolitical tensions and tariff increases are in the background.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
20 March 2026
The 2022 experience will “play an important role in this context,” and the ECB is now “in a better starting position.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
20 March 2026
“[T]he euro area economy as a whole is now in a quite different state than it was four years ago. According to the latest data, euro area inflation is 1.9%, but in March 2022 the annual price increase reached 7.4%. We no longer have the post-pandemic bottlenecks in supply chains, which also created the prerequisites for a sudden acceleration of price increases at that time. The central bank's main interest rate was -0.5% at the time, but now it is significantly higher at 2%, which in itself does not give additional impetus to price increases.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
19 March 2026
“I think another point that we have to keep in mind is that back in 2022, when the shock hit, inflation was already at 6%. That’s a big difference with where we are at the moment, where the latest reading was 1.9% and we had inflation at target in the medium term. So that’s a major difference. I think the labor market is also quite a bit different. And I’m not saying that to avoid your question, but I think all this actually matters. The fact that we have a labor market which is solid but not as hot as it was back in 2022, where we had shortages of labor and a different bargaining position, will also play a role. A caveat though: inflation expectations have a lot to do with the memory that people and corporates have of inflation. And back in 2022 the memory was dating way back. Now the memory is rather fresh because people have seen inflation. So, the reaction function that they will have in terms of investment, in terms of wage negotiations and in terms of consumption is going to be informed by a fresher memory of inflation that went high and that we managed to bring back to 2%. I think the third element which is different as well and that we will have to be attentive to is that while it was a major supply shock to begin with, in 2022 we had the pent-up demand and a demand shock element about the situation that we faced.”
Fiscal policy:
- Christine Lagarde (ECB)
20 April 2026
“But when such measures are broad and open-ended, the public has no incentive to cut back on energy use. And when they are eventually unwound, they raise inflation mechanically. During the last shock, the withdrawal of fiscal support contributed to prolonging the period of above-target inflation well into 2024 and 2025 … The lesson of 2022 is clear: support that is temporary, targeted and preserves the price signal can protect the most vulnerable without making inflation worse or public finances less stable.” - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
17 April 2026
“We also have to watch fiscal support. My country has been subsidizing energy since Covid, and now, after the war, not only the government but even the opposition is supporting that policy. Other countries are also thinking of implementing support measures to mitigate the increase in energy prices … Part of the market tightening is probably due to expectations of more fiscal expenditure. If such tightening impacts appreciably demand, then the argument for a much tighter policy could weaken.” - Pierre Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)
7 April 2026
“So, just giving subsidies for people to be able to keep buying gas and oil without feeling too much of an impact would not be the right policy because we need some demand destruction. And we’ve been able to reduce, for instance, natural gas consumption during the gas crisis after the war in Ukraine by 20%. But that was on the basis also of administrative measures like reducing the temperatures in buildings. So, we need collectively to reduce our demand because there is just less gas and oil … One of the concerns is that, and we see that in Belgium, if political parties want to do it as they did before and basically try to absorb the shock by increasing public expenditure, this might morph into potentially some tensions on the fiscal front.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
6 April 2026
Targeted and temporary measures can cushion the effects of the shock, but broad-based and permanent measures can add to demand and complicate monetary policy. - Dimitar Radev (Bulgarian National Bank)
3 April 2026
“The lesson from recent years is not that fiscal policy should be passive, but that it should be better targeted.”
