By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said Friday that the Iran war had sharply raised inflation uncertainty via energy prices and required policymakers to remain “very vigilant,” while judging the Governing Council’s decision a day earlier to leave rates unchanged as appropriate for now.
20 March 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Econostream’s ECB Tone Meter showed a notable hawkish shift in the Governing Council this week, with only a minimal shift in the same direction from the Executive Board.
20 March 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Mārtiņš Kazāks said on Friday that the ECB would avoid rushing into policy decisions and would instead assess possible monetary policy changes in upcoming meetings, beginning in April.
20 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – A month ago, we suggested that European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau’s relentless inflation-risk rhetoric could be teeing up a call for a rate cut. Alas, his latest intervention confirms it was no joke.
20 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf denies the ECB has a tightening bias. Almost everything else about his Bloomberg interview on Friday belied that claim.
20 March 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau said on Friday that a rate cut scenario could not be ruled out, though he added that it was “obviously much less likely” under current conditions.
20 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf on Friday said he could understand why markets were pricing in two rate hikes this year, but stressed that policymakers remained guided by incoming evidence rather than any pre-set course.
20 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn on Friday said the ECB had been right to leave interest rates unchanged, arguing that “any other policy decision at this stage would have been premature” given the extreme uncertainty created by the war in Iran.
20 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Primož Dolenc said Friday that the war in the Middle East had made the euro area outlook more uncertain and warned that a longer conflict could push inflation higher over the medium term.
20 March 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Madis Müller said on Friday that leaving interest rates unchanged did not mean the outlook had not changed, adding that it had been “quite the opposite.”
20 March 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said on Friday that a rate hike would “probably” be needed if the inflation outlook were to worsen, a scenario he described as “conceivable.”
20 March 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member José Luis Escrivá said on Friday that it remains “difficult” to gauge the impact of the recent energy price surge linked to the Middle East conflict, suggesting it may not warrant an interest rate hike.
20 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Madis Müller said Friday that it was too early to form a clear view on the appropriate interest rate response to the Iran war, arguing that policymakers should wait for clearer signs of the broader effects of the energy shock before changing rates.
20 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Council late Thursday appointed European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujčić as vice president of the ECB for a non-renewable eight-year term starting June 1, when he will replace Luis de Guindos.
19 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras on Thursday warned that a prolonged war in the Middle East would have stagflationary consequences for the euro area, saying it would mean “higher inflation and lower growth.”
19 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s press conference on Thursday revealed an ECB that has grown more alert, more explicit about upside inflation risks and more prepared to act if the Iran shock proves persistent, but is still unwilling to convert that readiness into anything resembling directional guidance. The Governing Council’s meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent framework again won the day.
19 March 2026
By Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday that the ECB is “well positioned” to deal with the latest energy price shock and will remain “agile” in ensuring inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target.
19 March 2026
By Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s Governing Council on Thursday left its key interest rates unchanged and published updated staff projections pointing to weaker growth and higher inflation over the coming years.
19 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The use of “vigilant” in recent European Central Bank communication should not be mistaken for the return of an old signaling device. The word has plainly become more applicable in a more dangerous inflation environment, and no one should pretend it is unrelated to current risks. But that is very different from conveying a policy intention.
18 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel on Tuesday said artificial intelligence was rapidly changing the workplace but was not, for now, eliminating jobs on net in Europe, while arguing that central banks also had to keep pace with digital technologies.
17 March 2026