ECB Insight: Six Seats, Many Stakes: Who Will Sit on the Executive Board in 2028?
- Our call (part 1): Rehn to succeed de Guindos as VP, but gender politics loom
8 September 2025
Insights
ECB Insight: Doves on the Defensive as ECB Sentiment Shifts
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – In contrast to comments of European Central Bank Governing Council member Mārtiņš Kazāks published earlier Friday, subsequent interventions today by his French and Finnish counterparts – François Villeroy de Galhau and Olli Rehn – added little new insight into the current ECB policy outlook.
25 July 2025
ECB Insight: From Dovish to Doubtful – Kazāks Clouds September Outlook Further
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – In our 6 June interview , European Central Bank Governing Council member Mārtiņš Kazāks appeared to envisage not just one, but at least two more rate cuts. His comments today make clear that this is no longer the case, and strongly support scepticism that there will be further easing seven weeks from now.
25 July 2025
ECB Insight: Lagarde’s Strategic Ambiguity Continues — And So Might the Pause
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde struck a somewhat hawkish tone on Thursday, pointing to better-than-expected economic data, dismissing fears of undershooting, and repeatedly declining to encourage expectations of further easing.
24 July 2025
ECB Insight: Waiting for September Amid Trump’s Brinkmanship
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Our starting point in considering where the European Central Bank now stands is that we assign only limited weight to US President Donald Trump’s 12 July announcement.
22 July 2025
ECB Insight: As Banco de Portugal Decision Nears, ECB Role for Centeno Remains Remote
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With the question of Mário Centeno’s future at Banco de Portugal seemingly close to resolution, a new possibility looms: could he be headed for an even higher post on the ECB’s Executive Board?
21 July 2025
ECB Insight: Policy Uncertainty Meets Wave of Turnover at Governing Council
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Amid intense debate over monetary easing, the European Central Bank is in the midst of another shift: a wave of Governing Council turnover. At least two—more likely four to six—new members will join by 2026, with potential implications for policy dynamics.
17 July 2025
ECB Insight: Centeno Waits, Lisbon Delays: The Uncertain Road to a Successor at Banco de Portugal
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – With just days to go before Mário Centeno’s term as Banco de Portugal governor officially ends, the government has yet to name a successor – a delay that makes it increasingly likely he will remain in place for next week’s ECB Governing Council meeting, and possibly even the one in September.
15 July 2025
ECB Insight: Joachim Nagel— At Last, the Right German, but at the Wrong Time?
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With less than a year until the next expected vacancy on the European Central Bank’s Executive Board—Vice President Luis de Guindos is due to depart at the end of May 2026— sets off a new round of openings, we continue our examination of policymakers with a credible shot not only at joining the Board, but at leading it.
14 July 2025
ECB Insight: Schnabel Casts Further Doubt on September Cut
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – We wrote in this space on 27 June that it was ‘appropriate to view a September cut — never a certainty — with less confidence than may have seemed justified three weeks ago.’ If at the time we tended to incline toward the view that the September cut could simply be delayed, we must now wonder whether there will be any further easing at all.
11 July 2025
ECB Insight: De Cos – Basel Over Frankfurt, for Now
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With less than a year to go until the next anticipated vacancy on the European Central Bank’s Executive Board—Vice President Luis de Guindos is set to depart at the end of May 2026—we consider it timely to examine some of the policymakers regarded as potential Board candidates.
7 July 2025
ECB Insight: Waiting for September – No Slam Dunk Yet Either Way
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Today, we undertake another member-by-member review of the European Central Bank Governing Council, this time with respect to the likelihood of support for a rate cut in September.
4 July 2025
ECB Insight: Klaas Knot—President-in-Waiting?
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With less than a year to go until the next anticipated vacancy on the European Central Bank’s Executive Board—Vice President Luis de Guindos is set to depart at the end of May 2026—we continue our examination of some of the policymakers regarded as potential Board candidates.
30 June 2025
ECB Insight: Knot Adds to Signs ECB May Delay Further Easing
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Perhaps they merely confirm our prior thinking, but we found today’s comments by outgoing ECB Governing Council member and De Nederlandsche Bank Governor Klaas Knot particularly worth highlighting.
27 June 2025
ECB Insight: Who Might Surprise? Dark Horse Contenders to Succeed Lagarde
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – In a series that kicked off on Monday with European Central Bank Governing Council member and Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn , we are looking at some of the well-known policymakers regarded as potential ECB Executive Board candidates.
27 June 2025
ECB Insight: Olli Rehn – Bridging the Gap or Straddling the Divide?
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With less than a year to go until the next anticipated vacancy on the European Central Bank’s Executive Board—Vice President Luis de Guindos is set to depart at the end of May 2026—we consider it timely to examine some of the policymakers regarded as potential Board candidates.
23 June 2025
ECB Insight: Stournaras, Meet Stournaras
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Writing here on June 3, we expressed reluctance – hardly novel - to accept European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras’ contention that 2% would mark the terminal rate of the ECB’s easing cycle. With good reason: Stournaras himself now appears reluctant to accept it.
18 June 2025
ECB Insight: De Guindos and Schnabel Signal Unity on July Pause, Diverge Beyond
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The division within the European Central Bank Governing Council was apparent last week, but Vice President Luis de Guindos’ comments published Monday made it even clearer - not just where the lines lie, but also where common ground has emerged.
16 June 2025
ECB Insight: New DNB Chief Olaf Sleijpen Unlikely to Shift Dutch Voice Much
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As it is now established that Olaf Sleijpen will succeed Klaas Knot as President of De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), we have taken a closer look at Sleijpen’s record and concluded that a major shift in Dutch thinking on monetary policy at the European Central Bank is unlikely.
13 June 2025
ECB Insight: Lagarde Confirms That the End Is Nigh
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – There was only one attempt during Thursday’s press conference to get European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde to confirm explicitly that euro area monetary policy had reached neutral territory. She demurred, but it didn’t matter, as she managed all the same to convey the idea that the ECB was done or close to it.
5 June 2025