Insights

ECB Insight: Option of Pause Takes Early Lead, Member-by-Member Review of Governing Council Suggests

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The option of a pause at the 14 September meeting of the European Central Bank Governing Council appears to enjoy an early lead versus the lone alternative of yet another hike, but with most Council members not having pronounced themselves since last Thursday’s decision, it is too soon to call an outcome that will depend to a large extent on data available only when the time comes.

ECB Hawk-Dove Ranking: Knot Ranked Notably Less Hawkish, Rehn Replaced by Välimäki

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Econostream has updated our hawk-dove ranking to take into account the passage of the last monetary policy meeting, so that the columns indicating voting status include only future meetings – as of today, 14 September, 26 October and 14 December.

ECB Brief: Lagarde Did Not Say That the ECB Had No More Ground to Cover

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Prone though she may be to missteps, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde got through Thursday’s post-Governing Council meeting press conference without any obvious and serious blunders, and in particular was merely misinterpreted by some to have said that the ECB had no more ground to cover.

ECB Insight: Lagarde Transitions to Data-Dependent ‘Open Mind’, Introduces Possibility of Pause

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday left the evolution of monetary policy in the coming months entirely up to incoming data, except to make clear that a cut was not one of the options that stood a chance of being considered.

ECB Insight: Amid Economic Weakness and Sagging Credit Demand, ECB to Favour Data-Dependence Over Hawkishness

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Yet again, the principal outcome of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council meeting this Thursday seems beyond dispute, given the lack of any obviously adequate reason to backtrack from the 25bp rate hike consistently signalled over the last weeks. It thus once more comes down to how the ECB frames its attitude toward policy decisions ahead.

ECB Insight: Nagel Tempers His Language, If Not Necessarily His Views

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Is the European Central Bank Governing Council’s most prominent hawk going dovish?

ECB Hawk-Dove Ranking: Šimkus Latest Council Member to be Ranked as Less Hawkish Than Before

Click Here for the Latest Hawk-Dove Table

ECB Insight: No Switching of Gears Yet as Lagarde Flags July Hike and Leaves September Unclear

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank on Thursday delivered as expected by Econostream and many others, with President Christine Lagarde leaving no doubt that monetary tightening was set to continue beyond the latest 25bp hike.

ECB Insight: Rhetoric Suggests Door Should Stay Open to Uncertain Amount of Further Tightening

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – We have no difficulty excluding the possibility of the European Central Bank Governing Council reaching any other monetary policy decision this Thursday than the one it has amply flagged of another 25bp rate hike.

ECB Insight: Schnabel Becomes Latest Council Member to Temper Her Hawkish Language

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, who had been keeping her policy views relatively under wraps, was bound to air these before the 15 June Governing Council meeting, and did so on Wednesday, just before the start of the quiet period, with comments we see as fitting the general trend toward a more dovish outlook.

ECB Insight: Knot’s Hawkishness Dialled Down Yet Another Notch

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot on Tuesday again sounded markedly less hawkish than in the recent past, reassuring that the worst of inflation had passed, rejoicing at monetary tightening’s initial impact on the real economy, and arguing that financial stability risks warranted proceeding with further rate hikes cautiously.

ECB Insight: Panetta’s Dovishness Sounding Increasingly Normal as Terminal Rate Nears

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta on Friday weighed in, as he is wont to at carefully chosen intervals, on the state of ECB monetary policy.

ECB Insight: Governing Council Facing Next Round of Musical Chairs as Departures Loom

By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The composition of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is set for a change by the end of 2023, with one influential policymaker’s term expiring and question marks over the future of three more members.

ECB Insight: Lane Back at Work Setting the Monetary Policy Record Straight for the Doubters

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Philip Lane on Tuesday said that Europe was now in part two of the current inflation story and that monetary policy should be forward-looking, maybe.

ECB Hawk-Dove Ranking: Council Becoming Less Hawkish

ECB Insight: More Ground to Cover, Says Lagarde, But Don’t Ask How Much

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank delivered more or less as expected on Thursday, opting to slow the pace of its tightening whilst making clear that, given the lack of a clear impact of higher borrowing costs on the real economy, this was not to be understood as the end of the hiking cycle.

ECB Insight: Default Option of 25BP Likely to Prevail as Data Fail to Meet Standard for 50BP

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Directly following the European Central Bank Governing Council’s last monetary policy meeting, we inclined to the opinion that another 50bp hike in May was somewhat likelier than the only other reasonable alternative of 25bp.

ECB Insight: Option of 25BP Hike Leads, but Tally of Council Underscores Risk of Surprise

- Pre-meeting summary below of all ECB Governing Council members' policy views

ECB Insight: Centeno, Dealt a Stronger Hand, Relishes the Chance To Play It

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As if he heard opportunity knocking, European Central Bank Governing Council member Mário Centeno has been doubling down on his expressions of desire to see his peers start applying patience to the setting of monetary policy.

ECB Insight: Governing Council at Last Goes Well and Truly Data-Dependent, Albeit for Lack of Alternatives

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank stuck to its guns on Thursday, with President Christine Lagarde’s relatively surefooted handling of the press conference after the Governing Council meeting characterised by a calm insistence on data-dependence and watchfulness in the context of a job likely not yet done.