By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn on Friday said the ECB had been right to leave interest rates unchanged, arguing that “any other policy decision at this stage would have been premature” given the extreme uncertainty created by the war in Iran.
20 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Primož Dolenc said Friday that the war in the Middle East had made the euro area outlook more uncertain and warned that a longer conflict could push inflation higher over the medium term.
20 March 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Madis Müller said on Friday that leaving interest rates unchanged did not mean the outlook had not changed, adding that it had been “quite the opposite.”
20 March 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said on Friday that a rate hike would “probably” be needed if the inflation outlook were to worsen, a scenario he described as “conceivable.”
20 March 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member José Luis Escrivá said on Friday that it remains “difficult” to gauge the impact of the recent energy price surge linked to the Middle East conflict, suggesting it may not warrant an interest rate hike.
20 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Madis Müller said Friday that it was too early to form a clear view on the appropriate interest rate response to the Iran war, arguing that policymakers should wait for clearer signs of the broader effects of the energy shock before changing rates.
20 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Council late Thursday appointed European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujčić as vice president of the ECB for a non-renewable eight-year term starting June 1, when he will replace Luis de Guindos.
19 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras on Thursday warned that a prolonged war in the Middle East would have stagflationary consequences for the euro area, saying it would mean “higher inflation and lower growth.”
19 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s press conference on Thursday revealed an ECB that has grown more alert, more explicit about upside inflation risks and more prepared to act if the Iran shock proves persistent, but is still unwilling to convert that readiness into anything resembling directional guidance. The Governing Council’s meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent framework again won the day.
19 March 2026
By Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday that the ECB is “well positioned” to deal with the latest energy price shock and will remain “agile” in ensuring inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target.
19 March 2026
By Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s Governing Council on Thursday left its key interest rates unchanged and published updated staff projections pointing to weaker growth and higher inflation over the coming years.
19 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The use of “vigilant” in recent European Central Bank communication should not be mistaken for the return of an old signaling device. The word has plainly become more applicable in a more dangerous inflation environment, and no one should pretend it is unrelated to current risks. But that is very different from conveying a policy intention.
18 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel on Tuesday said artificial intelligence was rapidly changing the workplace but was not, for now, eliminating jobs on net in Europe, while arguing that central banks also had to keep pace with digital technologies.
17 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – When it comes to interest rates, the very likely outcome of this week’s meeting of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is another hold. Policymakers’ harder task will again be communication: President Christine Lagarde will want to acknowledge that the Iran war has heightened upside inflation risks, without letting markets infer that a near-term rate hike has effectively become the new baseline.
17 March 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Econostream’s ECB Tone Meter showed the Governing Council and the Executive Board becoming less dovish this week, with both gauges moving close to neutral.
13 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – If European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde wanted to preserve room to leave the ECB before her mandate formally ends on October 31, 2027, the war with Iran has not closed that option. But it has potentially made using it more awkward.
13 March 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Following is a collection of views expressed by ECB Governing Council members on various topics of high relevance related to next week’s meeting and the further evolution of monetary policy:
13 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is expected to have the Governing Council watch a David Attenborough-narrated video about the massive cost of the destruction of ocean ecosystems next Tuesday evening, according to a person familiar with the agenda of the upcoming monetary policy meeting.
13 March 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Wednesday that in principle the war involving Iran is likely to have a negative impact on economic growth while also potentially increasing risks to inflation.
11 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Peter Kažimír’s intervention on Wednesday stood out not because it was hawkish — why be surprised when Kažimír is hawkish? — but because of how directly it tried to pull the Iran shock into the ECB’s reaction function.
11 March 2026