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ECB Insight: Early Signs of Job Market Deterioration Starting to Worry Policymakers

ECB Insight: Early Signs of Job Market Deterioration Starting to Worry Policymakers

By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Faster disinflation and weaker economic growth are not the only arguments wielded by European Central Bank Governing Council members in support of a rate cut this week. Cracks in the area’s labour market are also increasingly cited by authorities wanting to ease monetary policy further.

14 October 2024
ECB Insight: Insiders Heavily Favour an October Cut, But Acknowledge Arguments Against It

ECB Insight: Insiders Heavily Favour an October Cut, But Acknowledge Arguments Against It

By David Barwick and Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Right off the bat, we would like to note that we stick to the view that the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is more likely than not to cut interest rates by 25bp at its monetary policy meeting next week. Too many Council members have indicated too clearly that they favour this outcome, while too few have expressed opposition or even just uncertainty.

11 October 2024
ECB Insight: As the Quiet Period Looms, ‘Torschlusspanik’ Sets In

ECB Insight: As the Quiet Period Looms, ‘Torschlusspanik’ Sets In

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – On a day like today, that so very German word Torschlusspanik might come to mind. Literally ‘gate-closing panic’, it refers to the fear of letting an important opportunity slip by at the last minute and is often used in the context of those worried that their marriageability is on the verge of expiration.

9 October 2024
ECB’s Villeroy: Rate Cut in October ‘Very Likely’

ECB’s Villeroy: Rate Cut in October ‘Very Likely’

By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday that a new interest rate cut was ‘very likely’ to emerge from next week's monetary policy meeting.

9 October 2024
ECB’s Nagel: ‘Inflation is Basically on the Retreat’

ECB’s Nagel: ‘Inflation is Basically on the Retreat’

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel on Tuesday said that despite the expected rebound of euro area inflation this quarter, inflation was essentially on the decline.

8 October 2024
ECB Insight: Policymakers Strangely Unmoved by Recent Oil Price Spike

ECB Insight: Policymakers Strangely Unmoved by Recent Oil Price Spike

By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – As support mounts for an interest rate cut at the European Central Bank’s Governing Council meeting next week, policymakers appear oddly unfazed by the dramatic impact on oil prices of rising tensions in the Middle East.

8 October 2024