By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel’s interview with Die Zeit is hawkish, at first glance perhaps surprisingly so, but closer inspection argues against overinterpretation.
25 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s July rate decision will depend less on whether the Middle East shock has formally eased than on whether the shock is still working its way into the Eurozone inflation process.
24 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane’s remarks to the European Parliament on Tuesday were broadly consistent with ECB President Christine Lagarde’s statement the day before, but not identical in emphasis.
23 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Next to her June 11 press conference, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s statement on Monday at the European Parliament didn’t let through much daylight. But it let through some.
22 June 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Econostream's ECB Tone Meter registered a noticeable drop for the Governing Council and a smaller decline for the Executive Board this week, as policymakers continued to stress upside inflation risks while refraining from signaling further rate increases as clearly as they had prior to the June meeting.
19 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch has offered a surprisingly strong account of why the European Central Bank might not have needed to raise rates last week, coupled with a weaker defense of why it nonetheless did.
19 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The most important statement at last week’s European Central Bank press conference was President Christine Lagarde’s repeated assertion that the decision to raise interest rates by 25bp was “robust across all scenarios,” a justification that went considerably further than merely invoking the ECB’s baseline forecast.
18 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Lest anyone think Nadia Calviño really closed the door on Tuesday to becoming the next head of the European Central Bank: she did not. Given ample opportunity to be clear about her potential interest in succeeding current officeholder Christine Lagarde, the European Investment Bank president was at pains not to take it.
16 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s rate hike last Thursday did not amount to an assessment that the economy no longer faces downside risks, but it did reflect the emerging view that those risks may have been overstated in the context of an inflation shock that is dominating the blow to growth.
15 June 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Econostream’s ECB Tone Meter turned slightly less hawkish for the Governing Council this week, while the Executive Board remained broadly unchanged, following Thursday’s 25bp rate hike.
12 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The first wave of comments after Thursday’s European Central Bank rate hike reinforced the case for another move later this year, but still fell clearly short of making action in July the base case.
12 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday did what she had to do – and as we expected yesterday – after the Governing Council’s unsurprising 25bp rate hike, refusing adamantly to provide a post-June roadmap.
11 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision on Thursday was consistent, at least at first glance, with the “one-and-watch” scenario we outlined ahead of the meeting.
11 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s main decision on June 11 stopped being the source of much suspense some time ago, with a 25bp rate hike the only reasonably probable outcome and the Governing Council likely to be unanimous, given the lack of any obvious dissenter.
10 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch is hardly the least serious name in the discussion about who will eventually succeed ECB President Christine Lagarde, making his multiple drawbacks as a potential candidate all the more deserving of scrutiny.
3 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn's speech on Tuesday mounted the clearest argument yet for characterizing a likely June rate hike as an “insurance hike,” even as it illustrated the peril of the phrase.
2 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Less than a month after we pointed out that European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos’ praise for ex-Banco de España Governor Pablo Hernández de Cos kept getting fainter, the next step has arrived: the former no longer mentions the latter at all.
1 June 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel may have made the strongest official case yet for a June rate hike, but Chief Economist Philip Lane has now made clear that one move would not imply another.
26 May 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel’s Reuters interview today confirms almost point for point the argument we made here yesterday : a June rate hike has become very hard to avoid, but it is premature to infer a sequence of moves.
26 May 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – A mere eleven days ago, a well-known news agency saw a June hike by the European Central Bank as becoming less likely. The opposite is true, and the only interesting case anymore with respect to June 11 is one in which the Iran conflict ends soon, the resolution looks durable and forward energy prices fall far enough, fast enough, to influence the new macroeconomic projections.
25 May 2026