Exclusive News

ECB Hawk-Dove Ranking: Farewell to Weidmann, Welcome to Nagel

TRANSCRIPT: Interview with AFT’s Cyril Rousseau on 09 December 2021

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 09 December with Agence France Trésor Chief Executive Cyril Rousseau:

EXCLUSIVE: Agence France Trésor Head: Not Concerned Election Volatility Could Hamper Issuance

- AFT’s ‘robust system’ has worked before under volatility and will function again if necessary
- Downward revision of financing programme only if very clear economic improvement early in the year
- ‘Quite excited to take a closer look at’ adding green dot, but decision depends on study outcome

ECB Insight: Lagarde Delivers Optionality and Flexibility; ECB More Open-Minded

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday managed to deliver a set of decisions that preserved a high degree of optionality and flexibility and showed growing open-mindedness at the ECB about what would follow currently elevated uncertainty.

ECB Insight: When Push Comes to Shove, Does the ECB Have What it Takes? Maybe.

- Insider: ‘We are not going to allow inflation in Europe to move beyond our objective, full stop’
- Insider: ‘Considerations about fiscal conditions should play no role at all’

ECB Insight: Communications Blitz by Policymakers Could Belie Timid Meeting Outcome

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Seven weeks ago, we noted in this space that the Governing Council meeting of the European Central Bank that was then two days off had been preceded by an unusually thin trickle of communication, at least from the Executive Board. Now, the opposite is more the case, with seemingly every member of the Council having weighed in, in many cases more than once, about coming decisions or the possibility of deferring these.

ECB Insight: FT Underscores Uneasiness About Making Major Decisions too Soon

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Tuesday’s Financial Times story suggesting a growing concern among European Central Bank policymakers about being too hasty to extend accommodation is less revelation than reminder.

ECB Insight: Weidmann Departure Seen by Some as Loss for Governing Council Discussion Quality

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The imminent departure of European Central Bank Governing Council member and arch-hawk Jens Weidmann represents a loss in terms of the quality of Council discussions, some ECB insiders fear, but does not imply a change in outcomes.

ECB Insight: Lagarde Suggests Council May Play It Safe, But Not Too Safe

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Friday indicated that the Governing Council could play it safe at its upcoming policy meeting by avoiding unnecessarily bold decisions, while pressing it to avoid playing it too safe.

ECB Insight: Has the ECB Painted Itself into a Corner?

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank Governing Council to take place starting two weeks from today may have become more interesting yet in light of increasing speculation that a number of its members would prefer to postpone some of the major decisions previously envisioned emerging from the occasion.

ECB Insight: De Guindos Comments Suggest Limited Impact of Omicron on Council Meeting

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos’ interview today with French daily Les Echos seems to indicate that the latest coronavirus variant does not fundamentally change anything as the Governing Council prepares to set the course of monetary policy.

EXCLUSIVE: French Treasury’s Bénassy-Quéré: Recruitment and Supply Constraints May Be Easing

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The recruitment and supply difficulties affecting French economic growth may already be starting to dissipate somewhat, according to French Treasury Chief Economist Agnès Bénassy-Quéré.

ECB Insight: Lagarde Interview: Some PR, a Few Policy Insights and a Reprimand

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The interview that came out late Friday with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde was not devoid of insights beyond the probably futile attempt to bolster her standing among citizens of the euro area’s largest member economy, not too delighted with the ECB to begin with and now also up in arms about rates of inflation last seen almost three decades ago.

ECB Insight: Policy Sequencing Inversion Not Base Case But Still Not Excluded

- Insider: Tapering, hiking, then downsizing balance sheet remains central scenario
- Insider: If the situation changes, we may improve on our forward guidance if necessary

ECB Brief: Weidmann: PEPP Flexibility Should Remain Reserved for Special Situations

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidmann on Wednesday spoke out strongly about inflation risks and in support of the timely withdrawal of monetary accommodation.

ECB Insight: From Panetta, Another Impassioned Plea for at Least No Less, Maybe More

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta’s speech on Wednesday confirmed – not for the first time- that surprisingly little has changed about his fundamental opposition to a withdrawal of ECB policy support.

ECB Insight: Waning Concern at the ECB About Hitting 33% Issuer Limit

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank insiders are growing less concerned about the possibility of asset purchases running up against the 33% limit on the share of individual countries’ outstanding debt the ECB can possess, based on recent conversations with Econostream.

ECB Insight: Schnabel Hawkish on Growth, Inflation; Sceptical of Asset Buys’ Cost-Benefit Ratio

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Today’s interview by the European Central Bank’s Isabel Schnabel offered a broad and insightful view of how the most hawkish member of the Executive Board sees various key aspects of monetary policy just three weeks before one of the most important recent meetings of the Governing Council.

ECB Insight: Post-PEPP APP Purchases of Greece’s Sovereign Debt a Very Open Question

- ECB insider: Council will be divided, there will be quite substantial opposition
- ECB insider: Can’t put everything on monpol’s shoulders with no-monetary-financing clause

ECB Insight: Lagarde Speech Strikes New, More Optimistic Inflation Tone

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Friday warned of the negative growth impact from the developments driving high inflation, but the clearly more important takeaway was her new optimism about the possibility of inflation eventually getting to the point where the ECB could start raising interest rates.