Exclusive News

ECB Brief: de Guindos Sees Potential for Even Higher 2021 HICP, Stronger Wage Developments

ECB Insight: ECB Sets Its Own Traps, Then Falls into One and Flounders

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank has essentially stumbled headlong into a pitfall of its own making after information regarding the institution’s expectations of future inflation was apparently shared by Chief Economist Philip Lane with private bankers.

ECB Insight: Council Members With Right to Vote in December Relatively Dovish, But May Not Matter

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde having made clear last Thursday that the Governing Council would defer major decisions until December, the question of which members are formally entitled to vote at that meeting may be of particular interest.

ECB Insight: Schnabel, a Bit More Forcefully, Invokes the Potential for an Inflation Recovery

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel on Monday combined strong rhetoric from both sides of the hawk-dove spectrum of the ECB’s Governing Council as she once again, though in more forceful terms, put on notice those anticipating persistently weak inflation.

ECB Insight: Lagarde Puts Big Decisions Off To December; ‘More Substance to Chew on’

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As suggested in this space some weeks ago, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday deferred to December major pending decisions of the ECB Governing Council.

ECB Insight: Making APP Every Bit as Flexible as PEPP May Be an Unlikely Outcome

- Public and private comments reveal range of hard-to-reconcile views
- Official to Econostream: shifting PEPP flexibility to APP ‘wouldn’t be easy, for sure’

ECB Insight: Hawkish Policy Move Likely to Be Offset by Dovish Rhetoric

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – For the first time in a long time, Thursday’s monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is an occasion on which the hawkish point of view stands a decent chance of prevailing.

ECB Insight: Updated Staff Projections May Be Next Week’s Major News, Absent Big Decisions

- Public and private comments suggest upside revisions likely, though magnitude unclear
- Official to Econostream: 2023 inflation projection ‘needs to be significantly higher’

ECB Brief: Preponderance of ECB Comments Suggest 4Q PEPP Deceleration Possible

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – This is an overview of policy-relevant comments made in the last two weeks by European Central Bank Governing Council members, in particular such comments as may indicate how the speaker would regard a reduction in 4Q of the volume of pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) purchases:

ECB Insight: VP de Guindos Echoes Others Already Calling for Less ECB Support

- President Lagarde Too Suggests Crisis Phase Ending, So 'No Longer a Question of Massive Support'

ECB Insight: Villeroy Leaves Little Doubt That Major Decisions to Need More Time

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With just days to go until the members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council will presumably start observing the quiet period ahead of monetary policy meetings, Council member François Villeroy de Galhau has apparently confirmed that observers should not expect much from the September 9 gathering except, as he strongly hinted, a slowdown in the monthly asset purchase pace.

ECB Insight: Villeroy Offers Latest Confirmation That Delta Variant Not the Biggest Deal

- Resilience to variant bolsters perception that emergency phase of pandemic petering out

Exclusive: Econostream Understands Even October Could Still Be Seen as Premature at ECB

- PEPP end next March no foregone conclusion, but not yet close to needing to decide
- Governing Council could devote several meetings to discussing what to do about asset purchases
- Financing conditions seen to allow potential modest reduction in 4Q PEPP purchase pace
- Delta variant significance downplayed despite additional uncertainty

ECB Insight: New Forward Guidance Relies on Elusiveness of Underlying Inflation

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Although the European Central Bank’s strategy review may have led to an inflation target that is clearer than its predecessor, it appears to be relying on a lack of clarity about another concept, namely underlying inflation.

ECB Insight: Opposition to New Forward Guidance Leaves More Questions Than Answers

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Almost a month after the European Central Bank revised its forward guidance on interest rates to reflect its new strategy framework, the nature of the opposition of a small minority of monetary policymakers remains somewhat unclear, with the majority clearly united behind the idea that guidance must defer to reality over time.

Exclusive: Econostream Understands September ECB Meeting Outcome Could Be More Wait-And-See

- ECB to set Q4 PEPP pace, but major announcements on future of QE less likely
- Council can start discussions, but these to continue in the autumn
- Major decisions in September would be seen as rushing things unnecessarily
- August holidays leave little time to lay groundwork; uncertainty still elevated
- Neither cliff effects nor new forecasts seen forcing major decisions in September

TRANSCRIPT: Interview with UK DMO CEO Sir Robert Stheeman on 27 July 2021

Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on July 27 with Sir Robert Stheeman, Chief Executive Officer of the UK Debt Management Office.

EXCLUSIVE: UK DMO’s Stheeman: Prefer a Gradual Approach to Any Curve Extension

- ‘Have begun to detect some market interest in a curve extension’
- But any curve extension ‘very much incremental only’
- ‘Might well be’ worth issuing new ultra-long-end linker this year, but must listen to market

ECB Insight: Must PEPP Ever Really End? De Guindos Might Make One Wonder…

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Whether the European Central Bank’s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) ever really needs to end could theoretically be an open question, based on ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos’ latest comments on the subject.

ECB Insight: Panetta’s Flirt With Deliberate Overshooting May Further Hinder Consensus

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta may have crossed a line on Thursday by appearing to advocate wilful overshooting of the ECB’s inflation target.