Exclusive News


Exclusive: Agence France Trésor Head: ‘Do Not Expect Any Changes’ to 2023 Funding Target

Exclusive: Agence France Trésor Head: ‘Do Not Expect Any Changes’ to 2023 Funding Target

- AFT's Rousseau sees ‘slightly higher demand’ for domestic inflation-linked products
- AFT's Rousseau: 10% inflation-linked target ‘not a fixed target but rather a soft one’
- AFT's Rousseau: ‘Don’t think de-anchoring is the main explanation’ for inflation swaps trading high
- AFT's Rousseau: Looks like resumption of money market activities by sovereigns ‘have not destabilised the market’

17 May 2023
Exclusive: Austria Debt Head: Too Early To Call Number of 2023 Syndications, Decision Hinges on Deficit

Exclusive: Austria Debt Head: Too Early To Call Number of 2023 Syndications, Decision Hinges on Deficit

- Austria plans ‘to tap 2049 green bond by €1bn via auction or syndication’
- Austria ‘will continue decreasing the maturity of our new issuance’
- Green CP programme demand split 50/50 USD and euro, 1m to 3m maturity
- Reintroduction of ECB ceiling has ‘no significant implications’ for Austria’
- April syndication order book saw lot of real money investors, fewer fast money accounts

11 May 2023
Exclusive: ECB’s Šimkus: Ending APP Reinvestments from July ‘One of the Options’

Exclusive: ECB’s Šimkus: Ending APP Reinvestments from July ‘One of the Options’

- Šimkus: Active asset sales ‘could be an option some day in the future’, but not for July
- Šimkus: ‘Let’s deal with the APP and then come back to the PEPP’
- Šimkus: ‘I don’t see a pause in hiking rates in May as a likely scenario’
- Šimkus: Size of rate moves ‘will depend on the data, but we still have some way to go’
- Šimkus: ‘We still need to let the impact of past policy moves kick in’
- Šimkus: ‘Need to maintain the restrictive stance for quite some time’
- Šimkus: ‘Very unlikely that we will see any decrease in interest rates this year’
- Šimkus: OPEC oil production cut a ‘one-off factor’; no need to ‘overreact or exaggerate’
- Šimkus: Core inflation to ‘remain pretty high’ throughout 2023
- Šimkus: Core inflation ‘stickier than many people think’

6 April 2023
Exclusive: Transcript of Econostream’s Interview with German Finance Agency’s Tammo Diemer

Exclusive: Transcript of Econostream’s Interview with German Finance Agency’s Tammo Diemer

- Diemer: Don't have to make changes to auction calendar just because energy prices lower
- Diemer: Inversion of German yield curve has no impact on our issuance activities
- Diemer: Want to be a predictable issuer and want to be an issuer that focuses on auctions
- Diemer: Will do whatever is needed and in our hands to support functioning of Bund market
- Diemer: Need to create additional incentives to attract new investors to green segment

3 April 2023
Exclusive: Transcript of Interview with ECB Governing Council member Scicluna on 21 March 2023

Exclusive: Transcript of Interview with ECB Governing Council member Scicluna on 21 March 2023

- Scicluna: Ramifications of bank turmoil to be felt for some time, also in Europe
- Scicluna: ‘
We strongly believe in the robustness and resilience of our system’
- Scicluna: If we don’t see core inflation peaking, then our job is to continue attacking inflation
- Scicluna: Would be presumptuous for me to say now that I’ll want 50bp in May; must see data
- Scicluna: ‘Nowhere near’
the wage-price spiral we’ve had in the past
- Scicluna: Updated forecasts appeared to us to be out of date the same day
- Scicluna: If core inflation rises, then those who are for tightening will get the upper hand
- Scicluna: ‘Wouldn’t be highly concerned with the results we’re getting from wage settlements so far’
- Scicluna: ‘No indications that we’re seeing’ the light at the end of the inflation tunnel
- Scicluna: Mopping up liquidity is another way to subdue inflation
- Scicluna:
Last week’s decision gives sense of stability; you don’t create more stability by hesitating

22 March 2023
Exclusive: ECB Insider: Slowing to 25BP But Hiking for Longer Could Be a Compromise

Exclusive: ECB Insider: Slowing to 25BP But Hiking for Longer Could Be a Compromise

- ECB insider: Reducing pace of hiking post-March to 25bp the correct strategy
- ECB insider: Others will oppose post-March slowdown of tightening pace
- ECB insider: ‘Very little discussion that we are now in restrictive territory’
- ECB insider: Some Council members will see the ECB as no longer very far from the terminal rate

8 March 2023
Exclusive: ECB Insider: Some Indicators Suggest Core Inflation Momentum Not Weakening

Exclusive: ECB Insider: Some Indicators Suggest Core Inflation Momentum Not Weakening

- ECB insider: Core inflation to remain relatively high and away from our target this year
- ECB insider: Some concerns that wage demands could pick up quickly in 1H
- ECB insider: Increasing trend of firms protecting their margins contributing to price pressures
- ECB insider: Hawks
‘not very comforted’ by assurances of lower medium-term price pressures
- ECB insider: Some
hawks question medium-term inflation outlook due to 2d-rd effects, energy prices

1 March 2023
Rates To Remain Slightly Above Neutral Until 2025 or 2026, ECB’s Centeno Says

Rates To Remain Slightly Above Neutral Until 2025 or 2026, ECB’s Centeno Says

- Centeno: When we stop hiking, we’ll be confident we’ve done enough for price stability
- Centeno: Don’t see upside risks to inflation, given December forecast revisions
- Centeno: ‘Inflation is going down faster than what we expected in December’
- Centeno: Somewhat uneasy about how fast ECB policy tightening has occurred
- Centeno: Observed euro area average wage increase can’t be considered 2d-round effect

14 February 2023
Exclusive: ECB’s Kazāks: Rates Need to Keep Rising After March, But Too Soon to Say How Fast or How Much

Exclusive: ECB’s Kazāks: Rates Need to Keep Rising After March, But Too Soon to Say How Fast or How Much

- Kazāks: ‘Getting to 3% in March is a good choice that … will take us into restrictive territory’
-
Kazāks: ‘Rates will need to go up at further meetings’ even after March; 'we are on a solid path of rate increases' 
-
Kazāks: ‘At some point we’ll reduce our speed’, but ‘by no means’ in March
- Kazāks: Hiking more than 50bp in March ‘would be reckless’, not needed in view of previous steps
- Kazāks: Too early to say how big May rate hike should be
- Kazāks: ‘Quite likely that there’s not going to be a recession at all’
- Kazāks: Once at terminal, expect to ‘stay there for an extended period’; rate cut in 2023 would be 'way too premature'
- Kazāks: ‘Terminal rate is by no means 3%, that has to be clear’, but ‘I also don’t think we will go as high as the US’
- Kazāks: Baseline would be ‘more benign inflation projections in March, but there are risks on both sides’

9 February 2023