By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher on Friday said policymakers should keep their options open ahead of the April 30 meeting, arguing that it was right to show resolve on inflation without front-running an outcome that might not materialize.

Kocher, who heads the Austrian National Bank, said uncertainty around the Iran war remained too high for the ECB to lock itself into a decision before officials had assessed whether recent positive signals would last.

“It makes sense to clearly communicate that we are not accepting an inflation development that is not in line with our mandate,” he told Bloomberg. “But it also doesn’t make sense to preempt something that doesn’t happen later on.”

He said policymakers therefore needed to remain flexible right up to the meeting itself. “We need to keep an open mind until the meeting, and even when entering the meeting,” he said.

Kocher also cautioned against assuming that an announced reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would quickly return conditions to normal, saying damage to energy production and transport infrastructure would keep frictions in place.

“Once the Strait is really fully open, it will still take some time before we will be back to a more normal situation,” Kocher said. “There will still be some frictions, some of the energy production and transport facilities have been destroyed.”

He said the economic damage from the shock had already been done, making the ECB’s baseline scenario effectively the best-case outcome at this stage.

On inflation dynamics, Kocher said some second-round effects were visible in energy-sensitive areas such as airfares, but that broader spillovers remained limited.

“There’s anecdotal evidence for some of these second-round effects, but it’s not yet widespread,” he said.

He also said medium-term inflation expectations were “still quite well anchored.”