By David Barwick and Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Wednesday’s report from Spanish news outlet Vozpópuli on former European Central Bank Governing Council member Pablo Hernández de Cos is more convincing than the outlet’s attempt a month ago to portray the ECB as already opening the door to him. Even so, the new piece still looks less like confirmation of a Spanish decision than an effort to shape the conversation around one.

The article is framed mainly as a story about Madrid’s political positioning, not as an institutional signal from the European Central Bank, which has little to say publicly about its next president beyond issuing a formal opinion relatively late in the process.

Still, the piece runs well ahead of what is publicly established. Its key claims are anonymously sourced: that Moncloa has sounded out de Cos, that his willingness is beyond doubt, that Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo has privately discussed the matter with him, and that the government is looking for the right time to launch an official candidacy.

What Econostream obtained yesterday on the record from a Spanish Ministry of Economy spokesperson is more restrained than the Vozpópuli framing: “We refer to the statements the minister has made to date: that Spain will of course put forward a candidate, that we have excellent male and female candidates, and that Spain should have representation in the ECB's Executive Board.”

Spain wants representation and is saying so openly, not for the first time. But the comment is also entirely noncommittal on the specifics, which is no surprise.

De Cos, of course, is an obvious heavyweight on paper: former Banco de España governor, former Governing Council member, and now general manager at the Bank for International Settlements. If Madrid were to decide to back him, it would be a serious candidacy.

But even if Vozpópuli is less sanguine about the prospects for another Spanish national sometimes discussed as a potential Lagarde successor — European Investment Bank President Nadia Calviño — one would not expect the Spanish government to tie its own hands while current ECB President Christine Lagarde formally still has 20 months left in her term.

Skepticism about whether matters have advanced as far as Vozpópuli suggests is warranted less by the Ministry of Economy’s official comment than by the nature of the sourcing and, to a degree, by the outlet’s earlier tendency—even before the FT had revived rumors of an early Lagarde exit—to get ahead of itself on this story.

Interestingly, yesterday’s piece does not reiterate Vozpópuli’s claim from last month that de Cos was “happy with his responsibilities in Basel.” Instead, it effectively advances the opposite proposition, asserting that his willingness to leave is beyond doubt and implying he would be prepared to step away from the Bank for International Settlements well before the end of his five-year term, which only began last July 1.

None of this is necessarily wrong. It may well be directionally correct, and may eventually prove correct in substance as well. We have repeatedly observed the high potential for a de Cos ECB presidential candidacy, though have hesitated to envision him turning his back on the BIS so quickly.

For now, the safest interpretation is that Spain is naturally keeping the de Cos option very much alive while avoiding a binding public commitment. The on-the-record line to Econostream is consistent with that. Vozpópuli may be pointing in the right direction, but the story still looks more like an attempt to shape expectations than like evidence of a settled decision.

As for the BIS, it indicated on inquiry yesterday that it would provide an official statement in short order, but as of publication today had failed to follow through.