By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Monday showed herself from her hawkish side, making it considerably less clear whether the Governing Council would really temper its pace of rate hiking as soon as next month, but also raising the question of how bold forthcoming quantitative tightening decisions will turn out.
28 November 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Monday said that the terminal rate of the ECB's hiking cycle would depend on the outlook, how long shocks are felt, how key variables respond and the effectiveness of ECB monetary policy.
28 November 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The euro area could enter recession this winter, but the European Central Bank is likely to continue hiking official interest rates, ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn reiterated on Monday.
28 November 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The global economy is facing an increased risk of contraction, with risks to growth pointing downwards and those to inflation up, European Central Bank Governing Council member Pablo Hernández de Cos said Monday.
28 November 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf on Sunday said that interest rates would have to continue rising even after a hike next month.
27 November 2022
- ECB insider on QT: ‘Even if there’s a discussion, we still have fears’
- ECB insider: ‘It can be very fragile on European bond markets’
- ECB insider: ‘We can’t just sell the bonds; it’s impossible’
- ECB insider: Could test APP roll-off at €20bn/month if markets, general economic situation permit
- ECB insider: ‘When you do QT, it is very different than when you do QE’; no symmetry
- ECB insider: Sizeable camp would like to be cautious, not commit ourselves to many things
They Said It: Recent ECB Policymaker Comments on Quantitative Tightening
25 November 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Days after repeating his warning that the economic cost of monetary policy inaction in the face of high inflation would be greater than the cost of higher interest rates, European Central Bank Governing Council member Mario Centeno on Thursday suggested that neither does he want much policy action.
24 November 2022
- ECB insider: Hawks can accept slower hiking if terminal rate unaffected and progress made on QT
- ECB insider: Many Governing Council members fear hiking substantially just before a recession
- ECB insider: October’s 75bp hike was already ‘not so easy’
- ECB insider: ECB President Lagarde likely ‘senses that there is no clear consensus for 75’
- ECB insider: See risk of much more political opposition to hiking as soon as some countries enter recession
- ECB insider: Hawks will feel they must ask for 75bp hike even if they expect outcome to be 50bp
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot on Thursday said that official interest rates would exceed neutrality and that the Council would next month discuss the reduction in 2023 of the ECB’s balance sheet.
24 November 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf on Thursday said that financial markets around the world were susceptible to disruptions in the wake of global monetary policy tightening.
24 November 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Double-digit inflation could persist in Germany into next year, the German Bundesbank said on Wednesday in its latest monthly report.
23 November 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank is likely to hike interest rates further and must keep expectations anchored, ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said on Tuesday.
22 November 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel on Monday reiterated his call for further decisive monetary policy action, but indicated that he was not seeking a December rate hike of a particular magnitude.
22 November 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – There is no indication that euro area core inflation is declining, according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said on Tuesday.
22 November 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane indicated Monday that one reason for preferring a 75bp rate hike in December was no longer valid.
21 November 2022
- Holzmann: ‘If things remain unchanged from now to the decision, then I would go for 75’ bp
- Holzmann: If there were a ‘major reduction’ in HICP this month, ‘I could go along with 50’ bp
- Holzmann: No ‘major recession’ seen for now
- Holzmann: On QT, see ‘‘strong consensus that we should start small to test the markets’
- Holzmann: QT should start with APP, only involve PEPP ‘much later’
- Holzmann: Roll-off of assets acquired under the APP can overlap with rate hikes
- Holzmann: ‘Still very much concerned that a de-anchoring of inflation expectations will take place’
- Holzmann: Recent German wage agreement ‘acceptable’, but may lead companies to increase prices
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot’s comments on Friday suggest that he may be backing down from his earlier enthusiasm for the possibility of a renewed 75bp rate hike in December.
21 November 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As the public discussion of the European Central Bank’s approach to quantitative tightening heats up, one can venture some guesses about what will materialise, based on Governing Council members’ contributions to that discussion.
21 November 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – To the reasonably complete compendium published here last Thursday of recent public comments by European Central Bank Governing Council members touching on the subject of quantitative tightening, we have added remarks made on Friday.
21 November 2022