News


ECB’s Schnabel: Terminal Interest Rate Lies in Restrictive Territory

ECB’s Schnabel: Terminal Interest Rate Lies in Restrictive Territory

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank will have to take official borrowing costs into restrictive territory in order to get inflation back to a level consistent with price stability, according to ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel on Saturday.

24 December 2022
ECB’s Centeno: I Support All the ECB’s Rate Hikes So Far

ECB’s Centeno: I Support All the ECB’s Rate Hikes So Far

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Mario Centeno on Thursday said that he agreed with every ECB rate hike to date in the current hiking cycle and that where the hikes were headed would become clearer once inflation started to subside.

22 December 2022
Exclusive: ECB Insider: QT Decision ‘Easier’, Less Controversial than Rate Hike

Exclusive: ECB Insider: QT Decision ‘Easier’, Less Controversial than Rate Hike

- ECB insider: No insistence on QT sequence with respect to TLTRO repayments or rate hikes
- ECB insider: Average €15 billion a month of QT ‘a very good start’
- ECB insider: ‘Most likely’ that
all maturing bonds will be treated equally
- ECB insider: In terms of QT, ‘
we have not done anything that markets were not expecting’

20 December 2022
National Bank of Belgium Sees Belgian Economy Narrowly Avoiding Technical Recession

National Bank of Belgium Sees Belgian Economy Narrowly Avoiding Technical Recession

By David Barwick – BRUSSELS (Econostream) – The National Bank of Belgium on Monday said that the euro area economy would be in a mild recession at the end of this year and early next year, but that Belgian growth would hold up relatively well and only briefly turn slightly negative, thus avoiding a technical recession.

19 December 2022
Exclusive: ECB Insider: Plan Now Is to Hike at Least Three Times in a Row by 50bp

Exclusive: ECB Insider: Plan Now Is to Hike at Least Three Times in a Row by 50bp

- ECB insider: Very clear that we’re going to hike by 50bp in February
- ECB insider: Wouldn’t be surprised if someone questions need for 50bp in March
- ECB insider: Policy will be restrictive as of February rate hike
- ECB insider: Terminal rate has now risen
- ECB insider: December Governing Council decision could have gone either way, 50bp or 75bp
- ECB insider: QT’s impact on monetary policy tightening is ‘minimal’
- ECB insider: QT complements rate hikes, not a substitute for them
- ECB insider: ECB staff probably assumes no need for more big revisions in next projection exercise
- ECB insider: See upside risks to 2025 inflation, especially to core

16 December 2022
Seeking Compromise on a Rate Hike, But Can Progress on QT Help the ECB Get There?

Seeking Compromise on a Rate Hike, But Can Progress on QT Help the ECB Get There?

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Econostream continues to expect the outcome of this week’s European Central Bank Governing Council meeting to be a 50bp rate hike, a view we’ve held more or less since 28 October, when President Christine Lagarde clearly set the stage for a deceleration of the tightening pace.

13 December 2022