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ECB’s Stournaras: Inflation Subject to Upside Risks, But Far From Being Cause for Concern

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Although euro area inflation is subject to upside risks, the situation is far from being worrisome, European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said Monday.

ECB’s Kazāks: Some Upside for the Inflation Outlook over the Medium Term

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The increase in asset purchases under the European Central Bank’s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) is envisioned as temporary, but this depends on how the situation evolves, according to ECB Governing Council member Mārtiņš Kazāks.

ECB’s Makhlouf: ‘Lot of Evidence to Suggest’ HICP to Subside, But May Not Happen That Way

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf on Friday expressed confidence that inflation would subside again, but at the same time acknowledged that future price developments could surprise on the upside.

ECB Brief: de Guindos Sees Potential for Even Higher 2021 HICP, Stronger Wage Developments

ECB’s de Cos: Financing Conditions Still Need Policy Support; ECB Hasn’t Started Tapering

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank did not initiate the tapering of its asset purchases with last week’s decision and financing conditions still very much need policy support, ECB Governing Council member Pablo Hernández de Cos said Friday.

ECB Insight: ECB Sets Its Own Traps, Then Falls into One and Flounders

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank has essentially stumbled headlong into a pitfall of its own making after information regarding the institution’s expectations of future inflation was apparently shared by Chief Economist Philip Lane with private bankers.

ECB Hawk-Dove Ranking: Council Members Left Unchanged for Now, But Several Under Review

Econostream's latest ranking of the members of the European Central Bank Governing Council in terms of hawkishness/dovishness.

ECB’s Holzmann Warns of Monetary Policy Consequences if r* Decline Not Reversed

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann on Wednesday warned of the monetary policy and economic consequences if the downward trend of the equilibrium real interest rate r* were not reversed.

ECB’s Schnabel: ‘Investors Have Started Internalising Our More Patient Reaction Function’

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Financial markets have taken the European Central Bank’s new forward guidance on board and understand that the ECB will be more patient before altering its monetary policy stance, Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said on Wednesday.

ECB Insight: Council Members With Right to Vote in December Relatively Dovish, But May Not Matter

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde having made clear last Thursday that the Governing Council would defer major decisions until December, the question of which members are formally entitled to vote at that meeting may be of particular interest.

ECB’s Villeroy: On Inflation, ‘Vigilant Without Being Worried’

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau said Tuesday that the attitude towards inflation was one of vigilance but not worry.

ECB Insight: Schnabel, a Bit More Forcefully, Invokes the Potential for an Inflation Recovery

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel on Monday combined strong rhetoric from both sides of the hawk-dove spectrum of the ECB’s Governing Council as she once again, though in more forceful terms, put on notice those anticipating persistently weak inflation.

ECB’s Villeroy: Don’t See Any Tsunami of Corporate Bankruptcies

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau on Monday again dispelled fears of a wave of French corporate bankruptcies.

ECB’s Rehn: Policy Stance Appropriate for Rebounding Economy and Remaining Uncertainty

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision yesterday reflects the strong recovery and, at the same time, the lingering uncertainty, ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said on Friday.

ECB’s Vasle: 4Q PEPP Asset Purchase Volumes to Be ‘Slightly Lower’ Than in 2Q and 3Q

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Asset purchases made in the fourth quarter under the European Central Bank’s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) would be ‘slightly lower’ in volume than in the previous two quarters, ECB Governing Council member Boštjan Vasle said Friday.

ECB Insight: Lagarde Puts Big Decisions Off To December; ‘More Substance to Chew on’

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As suggested in this space some weeks ago, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday deferred to December major pending decisions of the ECB Governing Council.

ECB Insight: Making APP Every Bit as Flexible as PEPP May Be an Unlikely Outcome

- Public and private comments reveal range of hard-to-reconcile views
- Official to Econostream: shifting PEPP flexibility to APP ‘wouldn’t be easy, for sure’

ECB Insight: Hawkish Policy Move Likely to Be Offset by Dovish Rhetoric

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – For the first time in a long time, Thursday’s monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is an occasion on which the hawkish point of view stands a decent chance of prevailing.

ECB Insight: Updated Staff Projections May Be Next Week’s Major News, Absent Big Decisions

- Public and private comments suggest upside revisions likely, though magnitude unclear
- Official to Econostream: 2023 inflation projection ‘needs to be significantly higher’

ECB Brief: Preponderance of ECB Comments Suggest 4Q PEPP Deceleration Possible

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – This is an overview of policy-relevant comments made in the last two weeks by European Central Bank Governing Council members, in particular such comments as may indicate how the speaker would regard a reduction in 4Q of the volume of pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) purchases: