They Said It - Recent Comments of ECB Governing Council Members
7 June 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is an overview of recent comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members. We include only comments made since the Governing Council meeting of 4 May.
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Christine Lagarde (ECB)
05 June 2023
‘Price pressures remain strong. … Upside pressures on both headline and core inflation are still coming from the pass-through of past energy cost increases and supply bottlenecks, which are nonetheless expected to fade gradually. The latest available data suggest that indicators of underlying inflationary pressures remain high and, although some are showing signs of moderation, there is no clear evidence that underlying inflation has peaked.’
‘Our rate hikes are being transmitted forcefully to financing conditions for firms and households, as can be seen in rising lending rates and falling lending volumes. At the same time, the full effects of our monetary policy measures are starting to materialise. Recent ECB staff analysis indicates that the effects of monetary policy tightening on real activity and inflation can be expected to strengthen in the coming years, but our assessment is surrounded by significant uncertainty. Our future decisions will ensure that the policy rates will be brought to levels sufficiently restrictive to achieve a timely return of inflation to our 2% medium-term target and will be kept at those levels for as long as necessary. We will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction. In particular, our policy rate decisions will continue to be based on our assessment of the inflation outlook in the light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.’
‘Today, inflation is too high and it is set to remain so for too long. We are determined to bring it back down to our 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. That is why we have hiked rates at our fastest pace ever – and we have made clear that we still have ground to cover to bring interest rates to sufficiently restrictive levels. These hikes are already feeding forcefully into bank lending conditions, including here in Germany. And we know that – having hiked so far and so fast – considerable tightening is still in the pipeline. But it remains uncertain just how much stronger the transmission of our policy will be. So, we need to continue our hiking cycle until we are sufficiently confident that inflation is on track to return to our target in a timely manner. At the same time, we need to carefully assess the strength of monetary policy transmission to financing conditions, the economy and inflation.’
‘Now, we are approaching our cruising altitude – and that means we need to climb more gradually, using the speed that we have already built up behind us. This analogy helps explain why, at our last meeting in May, we raised interest rates again – making clear that we were not there yet. But we also reduced the pace of rate hikes to a more standard increment of 25bp. How much higher do we need to go? That will depend on our assessment of the incoming data. And to help the public understand what sources of information will matter to us for these decisions, we have clarified our reaction function. Three factors will be decisive: the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission.’
‘In March, we projected annual average headline inflation to be 2.1% in 2025 – still slightly above our target. And we did not see year-on-year inflation rates returning to 2% until the second half of 2025. At our last meeting in May, we judged that the incoming data broadly supported those projections. On the basis of these past projections we cannot yet say that we are satisfied with the inflation outlook. But we will have a new set of projections at our meeting on 15 June, and these will give us an updated picture incorporating the additional policy tightening since then.’
‘…there is no clear evidence that underlying inflation has peaked. To date, all measures monitored by the ECB are still strong. And whether they remain so will depend mainly on the balance between two forces: energy prices and wages. … To be clear: a period of catch-up wage growth need not cause unduly persistent inflation over time – if the costs of the energy shock are ultimately shared in a balanced way between firms and workers. But if we start to see what I have called “tit-for-tat” inflation – with both parties trying to offset any real income losses – we could see a negative spiral taking hold. The ECB cannot allow this to happen. And since profits are ultimately influenced by the business cycle, it is our responsibility to restrict demand enough to prevent such a spiral. That should, in turn, lead to slower margin growth and lower wage demands while reducing pressure in the labour market.’
‘So far, our rate hikes are being transmitted forcefully to bank borrowing and lending rates – faster even than during previous hiking cycles. … This is the desired effect of our policy: we want financing conditions to tighten. And, so far, it has not been at the expense of bank performance, with the positive impact of higher rates on banks' interest margins outweighing the negative impact on volumes. But we know that our rate hikes have not yet been fully reflected in financing conditions. And we are also aware that recent financial market tensions may have intensified the tightening by increasing bank funding costs and encouraging more risk aversion. So we need to monitor carefully how this pass-through process is playing out. And if the recent tensions do leave a lasting footprint on markets, a given level of rates would mean tighter financing conditions – and that would have to be reflected in the level at which rates peak. At the same time, there is also uncertainty about how tighter financing conditions will affect the economy, and whether the effects will be stronger or weaker than in the past. As our rate increases percolate through the economy, we will get a clearer picture of how much the tightening we have already done is biting – and how much more is needed to ensure that inflation is decisively squeezed out of the economy.’
‘One thing, however, is certain: we will keep moving forward – determined and undeterred – until we see inflation returning to our 2% medium-term target in a timely manner.’
‘For the ECB, our immediate and overriding priority is to bring inflation back down to our 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. And we will do so.’
‘After years of being too low, inflation is now too high and is set to remain so for too long. … But we will bring inflation back to our target of 2% over the medium term. That is why we have raised interest rates at a record pace, and why we will bring them to sufficiently restrictive levels – and keep them at those levels for as long as necessary – to return inflation to our target in a timely manner.’
‘I think we covered a large chunk of the journey towards taming inflation and bringing it back to our target, which is 2% medium term. So, we responded fast in significant strides, you know, using 50bp at a time, 75bp once, 25 on the last decision, but we are not done; we still have ground to cover if I look at my numbers today and the situation today. … The inflation outlook is too high and for too long. So, we need to really bring it back to where we want it, which is 2% medium term. … We are not done yet, we are not pausing based on the information I have today. … I don't have a predetermined number in my mind. What I know is that we will be data dependent and we will not only look at models and what they give us. We will look at underlying inflation numbers, what does it mean for people, what are the sticky elements of inflation, and we will look at whether or not our monetary policy has an impact on the economy and on the inflation.’
‘I think that we are heading towards more delicate decisions going forward, but we will be courageous, and we will take the decisions that are needed to bring inflation back to 2%.’
‘The closer you get to the end of journey - and we are not there - but the closer you get, the more subtle it becomes, and the more difficult it is to calibrate the right timing, the right pace, the right level, and to reach consensus.’
‘The ECB is on a journey to fight inflation, and the fight is not over, and it will only be over when we have sufficient confidence that we will reach the 2% target in the medium term. … Inflation has been too high and for too long.’
‘There are factors that can induce significant upside risks to the inflation outlook. And we are still in a situation where uncertainty about the path of inflation is high, so we have to be extremely attentive to those potential risks, the exact list of which you will find in our latest monetary policy statement, in particular in relation to wage increases in various European countries.’
‘Under the present circumstances and based on what we have, which is the baseline of March, we know that we have more ground to cover. … our future decisions will ensure that the policy rates will be brought to levels sufficiently restrictive to achieve a timely return of inflation to our 2% medium term target and will be kept at those levels for as long as necessary. We covered a lot of ground in the last nine months, moving from minus 50bp to plus 300bp. We are continuing this hiking process. As I said, this is a journey. We have not arrived yet.’
Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
07 June 2023
‘Headline inflation in the euro area has come down relatively quickly after hitting a peak of 10.6% in October of last year. However, underlying inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy prices, Ed.) is more persistent and remains high, with services playing a key role due to the relatively strong impact of wage costs on inflation in these sectors. Rising food prices are also driving inflation, but we expect food inflation to fall in view of the global slowdown in agricultural commodity prices. According to our March projections, inflation will return to our 2% target only in 2025. This would mean above-target inflation for around four years – a very long time. One important question is how this may affect inflation expectations of businesses and households, and hence firms’ price setting and wage negotiations. Wage agreements can have a prolonged effect on inflation due to their long duration. That’s why it is so important to keep inflation expectations firmly anchored at our target and bring inflation back to 2% as quickly as possible.’
‘Staff analysis suggests that monetary policy transmission is proceeding and that the impact of our tighter monetary policy on inflation is expected to peak in 2024. However, there is great uncertainty over the strength and the speed of this process. The estimated impact varies greatly depending on the models used and, in particular, on the role expectations play in consumption and investment decisions. The less important the role of expectations, the weaker is generally the transmission of monetary policy. Moreover, given the current shortage of workers, one could expect monetary policy transmission to be weaker than usual. Finally, loan contracts with fixed-term rates over long periods have become more prevalent. As a result, it may take longer than was previously the case to see the impact of our policy. To deal with this uncertainty, we try to balance the risks of doing too little against the risks of doing too much. Given the high uncertainty about the persistence of inflation, the costs of doing too little continue to be greater than the costs of doing too much. The reason is that once inflation has become entrenched in the economy, it becomes much more costly to fight it. We have more ground to cover. It will depend on the incoming data by how much more rates will have to increase.’
‘That [whether market expectations of two more 25bp rate hikes are realistic] will depend on the incoming data. Let me be very clear: A peak in underlying inflation would not be sufficient to declare victory: we need to see convincing evidence that inflation returns to our 2% target in a sustained and timely manner. We are not at that point yet.’
‘The banking sector is robust, and the economy has so far proven resilient, even though there are some signs of slowing growth. The euro area economy is subject to countervailing forces. On the one hand, it is benefiting from falling energy prices, fading supply bottlenecks and still expansionary fiscal policy. On the other hand, tighter monetary policy has a dampening effect. There is a striking divergence between the weak manufacturing sector and the strong services sector – a global phenomenon. At present we do not expect a recession in the euro area. Negative growth in Germany in the first quarter of 2023 was mainly driven by a marked decline in government spending. The labour market remains strong and unemployment is at historical lows. Our March projections pointed to a soft landing of the economy. But we cannot be sure that it will really work out that way.’
‘Fiscal policy in the euro area as a whole is still expansionary and this fuels inflationary pressures. Monetary policy then needs to be more forceful to counteract that. We have been stressing for some time now that governments should focus on expanding the supply capacity of the economy in order to boost productivity. That would help dampen inflation. But that is not what is happening in most countries.’
‘In the current situation, given the resilience of euro area banks, President Lagarde rightly stresses that there is no trade-off between price stability and financial stability. The ECB can continue to do whatever is needed to bring inflation back to our 2% target in a timely manner. This implies raising rates to a sufficiently restrictive level and keeping them at that level for as long as necessary. At the same time, the ECB has the tools to provide liquidity to the euro area financial system, if needed to preserve financial stability and a smooth transmission of monetary policy.’
‘Based on the current data, there’s no doubt we have to do more to bring inflation back to our goal of 2% in a timely manner. … We see that monetary policy is working […] but we have a lot of uncertainty about how fast and how much. We do not yet see the impact on the real economy.’
Philip Lane (ECB)
26 May 2023
‘This year we expect to see a … big decrease in inflation. … By the end of this year, our projections recently said that inflation by the end of ’23 will be about 2.8%. So, this year there’s a long way to go, but this year, a lot of the inflation should fall back. Next year, in 2024, there’ll be further progress and in our latest projections, we expect to be back at our 2% target in 2025.’
‘I would say these [the food and services sectors] are where we have most concern. I mean, energy prices were the big issue last year. Energy prices are falling, but that … has been replaced, if you like, by high food inflation and high services inflation. So, that’s where we are focussed on. … But we do think the pressure, even in those sectors, will ease later this year.’
‘Inflation will return to target in a timely manner.’
‘There is a lot of uncertainty, and in particular the uncertainty … about the intrinsic uncertainty of inflation.’
‘[Inflation] doesn’t burn out overnight … the adjustment does take time. But it should return to target … We’re not bystanders, we do have a policy instrument to inject anti-inflationary pressures.’
‘Wage increases should not pass one-for-one into higher prices this year.’
‘On average, wages are rising in a very moderate way.’
‘They [markets] believe that inflation will come back to 2% in a timely manner. Not overnight, but within the foreseeable future.’
‘Core is going to come down because of the fading out of energy effects and the fading out of pandemic reopening effects. But that could be a misleading signal.’
‘There’s still a lot of momentum in inflation, but later this year and ongoing a lot of this inflation is supposed to reverse, partly because of the reversal of the underlying shocks, partly because of monetary policy. There’s a lot of disinflation coming later this year.’
Luis de Guindos (ECB)
01 June 2023
‘A big part of the journey has been done but there is still the last stretch.’
‘The size of the interest rate hikes and the number of interest rate hikes will depend on the data we receive - last month it was already 25bp, and so 25, I think, is the new norm’.
‘The [inflation] trend is clearly pointing towards a slowdown’.
‘The data that we have received yesterday, and today, I think, that is positive, there is a decline in headline inflation, also a decline in core inflation, clearly. The news that we are receiving now are positive news, and go in the direction of an important decline in headline inflation.’
‘Core inflation remains elevated, partly because of input cost pressures. Upside risks to inflation stem from, among other things, higher than expected wage and profit margin growth, and a potential lasting rise of longer-term inflation expectations above our target. Downside risks relate to possible renewed financial market tensions and weaker demand, due for example to a more marked slowing of bank lending or a stronger transmission of monetary policy.’
‘…our future decisions will ensure that the policy rates will be brought to levels sufficiently restrictive to achieve a timely return of inflation to our 2% medium-term target and will be kept at those levels for as long as necessary. We will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determine the appropriate level and duration of restriction, taking into account the highly uncertain environment. To this end, our policy decisions will be based on the assessment of the inflation outlook in the light of incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of our monetary policy transmission. One important factor for the future inflation outlook is the behaviour of fiscal policy. As the energy crisis fades, governments should roll back the related support measures promptly and in a concerted manner to avoid driving up medium-term inflationary pressures, which would call for a stronger monetary policy response.’
‘…so far, even with the monetary policy decisions that we have taken, we have not seen any sort of negative feedback in terms of systemic risk.’
‘I am much more afraid of the potential conflict between fiscal and monetary [policy], this is something we have to look at very carefully in future.’
‘Economic activity in the euro area has held up better than expected and a recession at the turn of the year did not materialise. But growth is still weak and inflation continues to be too high, with underlying price pressures remaining strong. … The challenging outlook heightens the uncertainties surrounding banks’ profitability and resilience.’
‘The euro area managed to avoid a technical recession. Nevertheless, contractionary monetary policy serves to tighten financing conditions and we have started to see this being felt on the market for bank loans. Banks have started to tighten lending conditions, which shows that monetary policy transmission is working. And we will see what impact this will have on the real economy.’
‘A quarter of a percentage point is “the normal” monetary policy rate hike. Hikes of 50 and 75bp were extraordinary steps in response to extremely high inflation. We have had to raise rates by 375bp: it was an important stage in our journey and inflation is in fact coming down. But we have now entered the home stretch of our monetary policy tightening path. And that’s why we are returning to normality, to 25bp steps.’
‘Looking ahead, it will depend on the data. We will decide on a meeting-by-meeting basis. And based on the evidence of how the tightening of financing conditions has worked. And on the path of inflation, headline and core. … Both will ease in the coming months. Energy prices will be key in determining headline inflation. We will need to consider the base effect as well as the impact of government support measures coming to an end. But core inflation will also be telling. It is a useful indicator for predicting inflation over the medium term. In this regard, I am concerned about service prices, which account for a large share of core inflation. Demand for services in Europe, for example in Italy and Spain, is very strong and highly sensitive to wage and labour market developments. We need to closely observe the impact of wages and services on core inflation.’
‘There could be more interest rate hikes, but their size will depend on upcoming data and the effect tighter credit will have on economic activity. … There is no doubt headline inflation will continue to ease. But there are more doubts about underlying inflation.’
Fabio Panetta (ECB)
02 June 2023
‘There is no doubt that 6.1% is too high, but people should not be worried. We will bring inflation back to 2%. In less than a year, we have raised interest rates decisively, from -0.5% to 3.25%, and inflation is falling, as confirmed by yesterday’s data. As a result of our rate hikes, banks are increasing lending rates and reducing the loan supply. This is being passed on to the real economy: firms are taking this into account when they plan their future investments, as are households when they take out home loans. But monetary policy typically exerts its impact over extended periods. It takes several quarters before its effects are fully felt by the real economy and then transmitted to inflation.’
‘I don’t think strong domestic demand is our main problem. In the last quarter of 2022 the euro area recorded a fall in consumption and investment. It is mainly foreign demand that is underpinning growth. The main threat to price stability derives from the strength of the labour market and firms’ profit strategies, although so far there are no clear indications of a self-sustained wage-price spiral. Core inflation does not accurately represent the typical consumption basket, especially for low-income consumers. More importantly, as I have said in the past, it is not a good leading indicator for future headline inflation. Core inflation usually lags behind headline inflation. And just as it has lagged behind energy inflation on the way up, it is now proving to be persistent even after energy inflation has gone down. But we can expect it to come down eventually too. In this respect, yesterday’s figures are encouraging.’
‘Given the extraordinary level of economic uncertainty, estimating the terminal rate is challenging. Our decisions are currently guided by developments in economic data, which we assess on a meeting-by-meeting basis. I don’t think this is the time to be too hasty in raising rates, given the considerable ground we have already covered. My intuition suggests that we have not reached the end of our rate-hike cycle, though we’re not far away from it. I think the policy debate will soon shift away from “how high?” to “how long?”. There is substantial scope for fighting inflation by keeping rates high for as long as necessary. We should be resolute yet judicious, with the aim of lowering inflation without unnecessarily harming economic activity.’
Joachim Nagel (Bundesbank)
05 June 2023
‘It is still too soon to speak of stable prices, even if these rates are considerably lower than they were last autumn. The underlying price pressures are also far too high, and have hardly receded at all to date. In May, the core inflation rate (excluding food and energy) is likely to have stood at 5.1% in Germany and 5.3% in the wider euro area. Monetary policymakers therefore cannot and will not falter in the fight against inflation. We need to be even more stubborn than the current rate of inflation. I will do my utmost to ensure that this period of high inflation is soon behind us. I believe three things are needed to achieve this, the first being a sufficiently high interest rate level. As things stand, several interest rate steps are still needed. In my view, it is by no means certain that interest rates will reach their peak as early as this summer. Second, once interest rates are high enough to overcome high inflation, this interest rate level needs to be maintained until we can be sure that we will achieve our 2% inflation target in a timely manner. And third, in order to support this interest rate policy, we must run down the bond holdings on our balance sheets. This balance sheet reduction will run parallel to our interest rate hikes. As from July, we plan to increase the speed of this shrinkage – a step that I am very much in favour of. Measures such as this will help us to leave the wave of inflation behind and return to a stable framework.’
‘…we will continue on this path of monetary tightening in the Governing Council to overcome high inflation.’
‘Our job is not done yet. While the headline inflation rate is declining, core inflation is stubbornly high: in April 2023, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices excluding energy and food in the euro area rose by 5.6% year-on-year. This was only minimally less than in March, when the core rate had reached an all-time high. It shows that the wave of inflation is now broad-based. And that is why there should be no doubt about it: The monetary policy tightening course has not yet reached its end. Several more interest rate steps will be necessary to reach a sufficiently restrictive level. And we will then have to maintain this level for a sufficiently long time. Until inflation has fallen sustainably.’
‘You can count on me not to let up until price stability is restored. Our medium-term target is 2%. No more and no less. And we want to reach this target promptly. This succeeds particularly well if all actors are prepared to do so. That is why it is primarily up to the central banks to send clear and credible signals through their policy decisions and their communication. Then it will also be easier for companies and wage bargaining parties to orient their actions accordingly. For fiscal policy, this means that it should not create additional price pressure in the current environment. Moreover, unsound public finances can make stability-oriented monetary policy much more difficult.’
‘The data don't allow us to consider changing our view that further rate hikes will be necessary, and that also applies for beyond the summer break. … There's consensus in the Governing Council that interest-rate hikes should continue.’
‘I guess there’s nothing off the table, so I’m not speculating here. I think what I realise is that first of all -and this is good news – that the headline inflation is coming down. Core is still very sticky, but this is also not a surprise. Food inflation is still very high. So, what I see is that we are coming closer to the restrictive territory, but we are not there. … I think what I see in the numbers is that it will take at least one and a half years until we see numbers that are close to our target. So we have to be patient here.’
‘But in fact we may then be in the home stretch in the sense that we are entering the area of monetary policy that can be described as restrictive. ... We can already see the first signs that lending, for example, will be more restricted. ... There is still work to be done on the core inflation rate, but I am confident that monetary policy will have an effect. ... We are ... not finished with the rate hikes. There's still work to be done, and we just have to be persistent here.’
‘The fight against high inflation hasn’t been won yet. I could also have imagined an interest rate step of half a percentage point. But we have already announced further interest rate moves. … The inflation rate may have declined over the past months, but it continues to be far too high. And as for core inflation – that is, headline inflation excluding highly volatile energy and food prices – we are actually seeing barely any movement at all. That’s not a situation we can be satisfied with.’
François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
22 May 2023
‘In the usual alleged time lag of one to two years for monetary transmission, our economic situation makes it likely that we are presently closer to the upper range. And hence the commitment I reaffirm today to bring inflation back towards 2% by 2025, is consistent with the full transmission of the monetary tightening that will have been put in place by summer 2023. … Against this backdrop of significant transmission “in the pipe“ and still to come, a deceleration in the size of the policy steps (from 50bp to 25bp) was wise and cautious. We obviously keep our hands free, but we add the capacity of observing and monitoring the pass-through of our substantial and exceptionally rapid past hikes. Persistence is now more important than speed; the duration for which we will maintain rates is now more important than the precise terminal level we will reach. Or in other words, for interest rates as with ballistics, “longer” is becoming more significant than “higher”. … Hence, our next rate decisions should not monopolise attention; we already have completed most of our rate-hiking journey, and we are clearly in restrictive territory. That said, as I said already last January, I expect today that we will be at the terminal rate not later than by summer. Summer is a long and beautiful season, which starts in June and ends in September. In the meantime, we have three possible Governing Councils either for hiking or pausing but don’t deduce a guidance from this or a preference for a given terminal rate. We will remain data driven, looking meeting by meeting at the outlook for headline inflation as well as for the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.’
‘… our commitment is to bring inflation back to 2% by 2025, and perhaps even from the end of 2024. Our confidence is linked to the fact that underlying inflation (excluding energy and food) can always and everywhere be effectively overcome by monetary policy. … We have already covered most of the way in this area [hiking interest rates] …What remains to be covered is more marginal. We have decided on rapid rate increases since July, because we were even starting from negative rates! We are now at 3.25%, and it is the future effect of these past hike decisions that should essentially allow us to reach our objective within two years.’
‘We have come most of the way, even if there will probably still be some hikes. We have come most of the way, but from now on, perseverance counts more than speed. We have showed since last summer that we knew how to be rapid, we are ready to be persistent as long as it takes to beat inflation.’
Ignazio Visco (Banca d’Italia)
03 June 2023
‘The monetary policy is certainly the correct one at the moment, although I would perhaps have pushed for more gradualness.’
‘…care must be taken to prevent the intensity of its [monetary policy’s] transmission from causing an excessive brake on consumption and investment. This is a tough challenge. The shock caused by the higher energy prices renders it necessary to search for a balance between the risk of insufficient tightening, which could lead to inflation becoming rooted in expectations and in processes for determining nominal income, and the risk of a disproportionate tightening, which could have overly acute repercussions for economic activity, and negative effects on financial stability and, ultimately, on medium-term price stability. The monetary policy stance must continue to be defined so as to guarantee a gradual, though not slow, return of inflation towards the target. The pace and the range of the adjustment of monetary conditions have already been unprecedented, just as the deflationary pressures of past years and the risks linked to the pandemic had been, which had pushed us to take the key interest rates into negative territory, and then keep them there. The impact of our decisions on the economy and on prices should fully unfold over the next few months; after bringing the reference rates to restrictive levels, we now have to proceed with the right degree of graduality.’
‘…if there is one thing I would recommend, it is to be cautious in how we judge the prospects for future monetary policy moves. There is a very high level of uncertainty.’
‘The risks to the real economy are starting to be felt, and banks are more cautious at the European level, not just in Italy. …the tightening of loans and credits is beginning to contract consumption and investments.’
‘The fundamental issue is that we live in a very uncertain world. We have an idea about where we’ll arrive and how, but for now it’s just an idea, we cannot know the peak rate already.’
Pablo Hernández de Cos (Banco de España)
29 May 2023
‘...we think that to achieve this inflation target of 2% in the medium term, we still have some way to go. We are probably closer to the end, but in any case, the assessment we make at this moment is that we still have some way to go.’
‘Other indicators confirm that underlying inflationary pressures remain elevated. Wage pressures have continued to intensify, firms have continued to increase their margins in some sectors and, although most indicators of medium to long-term inflation expectations are around 2%, some have risen and require continued monitoring.’
‘The latest available information shows that the pass-through to financial and monetary conditions is strong, while the lags and the intensity of the pass-through to the real economy remain uncertain.’
‘Looking ahead, we will continue to base our decisions on the data... In any case, we must ensure that interest rates are set at sufficiently restrictive levels, and remain there for as long as necessary, to bring inflation back to 2% in a timely manner over the medium term.’
‘…we at the ECB are acting decisively to bring inflation back to the 2% target in the medium term. Clearly, this process has short-term costs, in terms of reduced economic activity, but maintaining price stability is the single biggest contribution the central bank can make to ensuring solid economic growth over the longer term.’
‘From the perspective of monetary policy, it must be taken into account that this inflation forecast — compatible, I insist, with our objective of price stability in the medium term — is based, among other assumptions, on market expectations regarding the evolution of our interest rates that place the terminal interest rate of the deposit facility at around 3.75% in the coming months, which would remain at that level in the following quarters and which would only be gradually reduced from the second quarter of 2024. Although we did not have new projections in May, the latest data published since the preparation of the March forecasts have shown, first of all, a behaviour of economic activity in line with expectations.’
‘As for the transmission of our monetary policy, the latest data confirm that it is being passed on strongly to monetary and financial conditions, while there is still a lot of uncertainty about the intensity and speed of this transmission to the real economy.’
‘…we decided to raise them by 25bp, a lower increase than in previous increases, in a context in which the tightening of monetary policy is already well advanced, with interest rates in clearly restrictive territory.’
‘…it is important to underline that, in the current environment of high inflation, for the policy mix to be appropriate it is necessary that the stance of fiscal policy is not incompatible with the tightening of our monetary policy. This means that public support measures should be temporary and targeted at the most vulnerable agents and adapted to maintaining incentives to consume less energy, and should be withdrawn as energy prices fall. Otherwise, we run the risk of increasing inflationary pressures in the medium term, which would require a stronger monetary policy response.’
‘Regarding the dynamics of underlying inflation, after an initial stage of predominance of pressures of external origin, these have been subsiding, while those of internal origin remain high and are gaining importance. However, as I have previously commented, it is to be expected that the fall in energy prices, the improvement in supply chains and the moderation of demand, as a consequence of the tightening of financial conditions, will gradually begin to produce downward effects on inflation. However, the intensity of these effects is uncertain, as they may not be symmetrical to the upward effects. The economic literature is not conclusive as to the existence or not of these possible asymmetries and, therefore, this dimension must be carefully monitored.’
‘Given the lags with which monetary policy operates, most of the expected impact on inflation of monetary policy tightening would occur this year and beyond, with the peak of this impact in 2024. Looking ahead, the process of tightening our monetary policy is already well advanced, although, with the information currently available to us, we still have some way to go. We also anticipate that interest rates will have to remain in restrictive territory for a long time to reach our target in a sustained manner over time. In any case, in a context of as much uncertainty as the current one, we continue to stress that future decisions will continue to depend on data. Let me finish by noting that it is clear that the process of tightening monetary policy is having and will have costs in the short term in terms of lower economic activity, but that maintaining price stability is the greatest contribution that the central bank can make to ensure strong long-term economic growth.’
‘…the growth outlook will crucially depend on whether the projected disinflation materialises. A further persistence of high inflation rates would slow down the recovery and, should such persistence be observed in the euro area as a whole, would most likely lead to a further tightening of monetary policy and thus of financial conditions.’
‘The macrofinancial risk landscape has changed in recent months and continues to evolve. In a relatively short period of time we have moved from low inflation and low interest rates to persistent high inflation and rising interest rates. This shift poses new and enhanced risks to financial stability.’
‘…in an environment as uncertain as the current one, including in relation to the degree of future monetary policy tightening, banks ought to implement a prudent provisioning and capital planning policy, and carefully preserve their current levels of resilience.’
‘The future course of the world economy is also a cause for concern, in a context of monetary policy tightening worldwide and significant geopolitical risks, compounded by the doubt regarding the impact and persistence of recent financial tensions. …the growth outlook will crucially depend on the projected disinflation actually taking place. Greater persistence of high inflation would slow the recovery and, should it be seen in the euro area as a whole, would lead to a high probability of further tightening of monetary policy and, thus, of financial conditions.’
‘Looking ahead, euro area inflation is expected to remain at high levels over the rest of 2023, albeit on a declining path that would bring inflation close to our 2% target in the medium term. This decrease would be driven by a combination of factors, including the fading of the effects associated with the economic reopening, previous supply shocks (supply bottlenecks and soaring energy prices) and the depreciation of the euro. It is likely to be furthered by the growing pass-through of the recent drop in energy prices, the exchange rate appreciation and the easing of domestic demand as a result of, among other factors, our monetary policy decisions. However, this outlook is subject to much uncertainty, in particular regarding the potential duration of the war in Ukraine. Likewise, the financial market tensions, should they persist, could lead to a sharper than expected tightening of credit conditions, thus posing a downside risk to growth prospects and inflation. Conversely, continuation of the recent reversal of past supply shocks could foster confidence and support stronger growth than currently expected. The continued resilience of the labour market might also translate into stronger than expected growth by bolstering confidence and household spending. In addition, certain factors could delay the return of inflation to the 2% target in the medium term, most notably the possibility that energy price declines will pass through to other goods and services more slowly and to a lesser extent than past increases, the possible emergence of second-round effects via wages or profit margins and the uncertainty over the possible reversal of the fiscal policy measures introduced to mitigate the effects of inflation.’
Klaas Knot (De Nederlandsche Bank)
07 June 2023
‘The ECB’s policy rate has been raised by 3.75 percentage points, at a record pace. This has immediately translated into higher market rates, but this impact has yet to feed through to the real economy. That takes time, however. Financial institutions are also still in the middle of the adjustment process. Furthermore, I am not yet convinced that the current degree of tightening is sufficient. Inflation may well remain too high for a long time, requiring further rate hikes. Financial markets are optimistic: they are assuming that inflation will fall quickly and are already pricing in rate cuts for next year. If monetary policy has to be tightened further – or for longer – than is currently expected to curb inflation, there will be a greater risk of new market stress. Also, history has shown that after a rapid cycle of monetary tightening, problems in the financial sector often only emerge with a time lag.’
‘At its peak, headline inflation was 10.6%. Now, it has come down to just above 6%. Clearly this is still way too high. But I do believe that, in the absence of further supply shocks, the worst is behind us in terms of the immediate assault on our citizens’ purchasing power. However, a strong word of caution is still in order. Because inflation was high for a long period, underlying inflationary pressures have built up. As a consequence, we now observe second-round effects – energy prices have found their way into other items in the consumer basket, and wages and services in particular have taken over the inflation torch. It is likely that price pressures in these areas will prove more difficult to bring down. It has clearly been a decade of extremes for monetary policy. But despite all of this, inflation expectations are still decently anchored, and let us hope that the next decade will not be so eventful. What we do in the realm of monetary policy, is, of course, aimed at having an effect on the real economy and then onto inflation. We know that this transmission always comes with a lag, whether monetary policy is easing or tightening. But in the spirit of Robert Schuman, we do aim for concrete results. So it is reassuring to see the first signs of recent monetary policy actually being transmitted to the real economy.’
‘While medium-term inflation and longer-term financial stability policies are now more aligned, a short-term financial stability risk looms around the corner. An abrupt change in monetary policy requires a massive adjustment in the financial system, which could also trigger some of the vulnerabilities that have accumulated in the past.’
‘Central bankers will have to continue tightening monetary policy for as long as necessary, until we see inflation return to our 2% target over the medium term. But we will do this step by step. Because the tighter monetary policy gets, the more forceful its transmission to output and prices that is still largely in the pipeline. And with each step, the financial system will have to continue adjusting to the higher interest rate environment. The recent financial turmoil on the other side of the Atlantic illustrates that this cannot be taken for granted.’
‘Investors have so far been very optimistic about inflation. The general expectation is that we will have returned to the target level of 2% by the end of next year. Financial markets are already pricing in interest rate cuts for next year. If they have to adjust this expectation, which is not unlikely, this could lead to new corrections.’
‘Government debt in particular saw rapid growth during the pandemic. In a low-interest environment, this additional debt would be easy to deal with. But with rising interest expenses, it could cause problems. This is particularly true for large debts that need to be rolled over and reinvested in the short term.’
‘Inflation forecasts are of course subject to great uncertainty. But what we are currently seeing are second-round effects. What started with energy prices has now spread elsewhere to consumer prices. Core inflation is our biggest concern. There are no signs of abatement here yet, especially in the services sector. Most services are quite labour-intensive, and wage developments here can lead to price increases. While the peak in headline inflation is clearly behind us, with core inflation we cannot be sure that we have passed the peak yet. As monetary policy makers, we need to be sure that we can see a significant decline in core inflation as well.’
‘I don't know yet where I see the interest rate peak. We have to be guided by the data. I do think that we will need more rate hikes in June and July, and I think it is quite unlikely that the data will change dramatically in the meantime. I expect that our analysis will conclude that at least two more rate hikes of 0.25 points will be necessary. What happens after the summer, I am totally open. First, we need more robust evidence on the impact of our monetary policy decisions.’
‘I think most of the impact of the monetary tightening so far is still in the pipeline - we have only seen a very preliminary impact. We are seeing an impact on financing conditions, but the consequences for growth and inflation are still ahead.’
‘What we are doing right now can be described with the words "slower, but longer". After raising the policy rate by 50bp several times, the rate move in May was only 25bp. The general understanding in the Governing Council is that if we reach the top rate at some point not too far away, we will probably have to stay at that level for a significant time. Markets are too optimistic about rate cuts. We see that core inflation is more persistent than we expected. And we know from experience that once inflation reaches wages and services, it becomes even more persistent. It is hard to put the genie back in the bottle. I think: Whenever we reach the interest rate peak, we have to stay there for quite a considerable period of time.’
‘Our real problem at the moment is that core inflation is still too high. … But our policy works with some delays so the biggest impacts of what we’ve done so far are still in the pipeline. That is why we have considered it responsible, and that was also my position in the meeting, to take a step back from half a percentage point to a quarter percentage point per meeting.’
Pierre Wunsch (Belgian National Bank)
27 May 2023
‘We’ve got some more ground to cover.’
‘On fiscal of course, we would hope and expect some consolidation. … If fiscal remains supportive, then monetary policy would have to do more to get inflation under control. This is going to imply higher interest rates and, at the end of the day over the medium term, higher deficits because of the debt burden and a higher risk of fiscal dominance.’
‘I do expect some fiscal consolidation on average in Europe. But the problem is not only about the average, it’s also about all countries in the EU that have high deficits and debts doing what they have to do. And there I’m much less optimistic that we are not going to be faced with some kinds of fiscal fragmentation and basically some countries having fiscal policies that are not really sustainable.’
Interest rates ‘are still quite low in real terms’.
‘So, I’m not saying we are now under fiscal dominance. I don’t think so. I mean, we’ve hiked 400bp, and we might … have to do more. So, this is not fiscal dominance. I’m not saying that. But what I’m saying is that, you know, we felt more comfortable first doing the TPI. We’ve got PEPP flexibility. We know that there is a risk that in some countries … the fiscal situation is maybe not going to improve enough. So, what I would say is that we’ve been flirting and we are flirting with some weak form of fiscal dominance. We are not in a situation … where we could operate in terms of monetary policy completely without thinking about the fiscal implications. This is not okay, and this is again one more argument for why fiscal positions need to be improved in all countries that have high debt and deficit levels.’
Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
09 May 2023
‘I don’t think it is that clear yet [that the terminal rate will be reached in July]. We still have quite some ground to cover and further rate increases will be necessary to tame inflation. … Persistently high inflation is a bigger problem for society than a relatively short and shallow recession. Failing to contain inflation would be a failure because then the policy response in the second go would then need to be much tighter.’
Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
01 June 2023
‘In the euro area, the inflation outlook continues to be too high for too long. Although most measures of longer term inflation expectations currently stand at around our 2% target, some indicators have edged up and warrant continued monitoring. A lasting rise in inflation expectations is an upside risk to inflation, also over the medium term. Persistently high inflation rates are risky, particularly since they could make inflation expectations adaptive. This would be a dangerous development and must be decisively avoided.’
‘Without doubt, the ECB's rate increases are being transmitted forcefully to euro area financing and monetary conditions. However, the lags and the strength of transmission to the real economy remain uncertain.’
‘In our monetary policy stance, we have recently reached a point where rates are in restrictive territory. In my view, it is essential that we see a steady and sustained decline in underlying inflation before we start considering easing the policy again. The Governing Council has already made it clear that we will continue to follow this data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. The journey is not over yet.’
‘Inflation is still far too fast, and especially core inflation, which is cleaned of the price of energy and food and is central to making monetary policy, has proven to be annoyingly tenacious.’
‘Interest rate decisions are evaluated, of course always on the basis of the latest data, how core inflation, net of energy and food prices, will develop and, on the other hand, how well monetary policy will bite. We need to see that core inflation is clearly and sustainably on a downward trend before we stop tightening monetary policy. In monetary policy, we have moved into an area that limits aggregate demand, and there is no reason for us to leave it prematurely, but to act consistently to stabilize inflation to the 2% target in the medium term. … we can achieve our price stability goal without causing unnecessary costs to the economy and employment.’
‘The regulatory reforms made after the global financial crisis fifteen years ago have significantly strengthened banks' buffers and crisis resistance. However, we should not be lulled into any false sense of security. Economic history has shown that major changes in the economic environment – such as a sudden rise in interest rates – can destabilize the financial system in unexpected ways. All the consequences of the rise in interest rates have not yet been seen.’
‘Inflation is still far too fast, and especially the core inflation, which is cleaned of the price of energy and food, has proven to be annoyingly tenacious. … Inflationary pressures have still not subsided. The rise in core inflation slowed in April, but it is still well over 5% (5.6%).’
‘We are committed to tightening monetary policy sufficiently to a level that will return inflation to the 2% target in the medium term. Interest rate decisions are made meeting by meeting based on the latest information on the economic outlook.
Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
05 May 2023
‘Certainly all the ECB's board members have taken on board that it will take some time until inflation slows, while we cannot keep raising interest rates until a 2% inflation rate is reached, since all decisions and their ensuing economic impact come with a lag time, which is what we must take into account. … The hike in interest rates has already been quite rapid, but right now it would be prudent to give a little more time for the previous decisions to make their impact on the economy and to demonstrate their effects. … The expectation is that, going forward, core inflation might also begin to slow down, hand-in-hand with the general rise in prices, while this in turn could be a sign of more permanent weakening of inflationary pressures’
‘In the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, we have emphasized that interest rates must be raised as long as we can be reasonably sure that price increases will be slowing steadily to close to 2% over a reasonable period of time. In light of what we know now, this means that yesterday's rate hike decision will not be the last. If you look at the expectations of analysts who closely monitor the economy and financial markets of the euro area, they consider it likely that the central bank will raise interest rates by another 0.5% during the summer and then stop. This would mean that the 6-month Euribor interest rate, which affects the loan payments of Estonian bank customers, would probably reach close to 4% or slightly above it. However, how high the central bank actually has to raise interest rates, no one knows today, because it depends on how the economy is doing in the coming months and quarters.’
Boštjan Vasle (Banka Slovenije)
30 May 2023
‘The events of recent months in the financial sector have shown that not everyone is ready for a change in monetary policy. This exposes us to the risk of excessive concern for stability in financial markets making monetary policy decisions that do not fully pursue our primary mandate – that of ensuring price stability. In order to avoid this, we have at our disposal other instruments, separate from monetary policy, to address excessive reactions of financial markets and major liquidity challenges of banks.’
‘Further interest-rate increases will be needed … but they'll be smaller than they were in the past. We're approaching the level of rates that's restrictive enough to bring inflation back toward 2%.’
‘Fiscal — including wage policy — and monetary policies will have to be linked to a greater extent than in the past.’
‘The mood at yesterday’s meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB reflected the slight improvement in the global and domestic economies, the persistently high headline inflation and, in particular, core inflation, and the effectiveness of the rises to date in key interest rates and their transmission into the banking system. In these circumstances the Governing Council of the ECB opted yesterday for further action, and raised key interest rates at the seventh consecutive monetary policy meeting, this time by 25 basis points. The decision was also taken provisionally to discontinue the reinvestments of maturing principal under the APP as of July of this year. As before, the next steps will depend on the situation at the time, in particular on the economic and financial data, developments in core inflation, and the effectiveness of our measures. The future decisions will ensure that monetary policy will be brought to levels sufficiently restrictive for as long as it takes to achieve a timely return of inflation to its target. Here it is important that the fiscal policy measures to protect the economy against high energy prices are temporary, and do not contribute to inflationary pressures that would require a more decisive response from monetary policy.’
Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
16 May 2023
‘Interest rates have risen 375bp. They have increased from -0.5 to +3.25. This is a very large monetary tightening and if we add to it the reduction of the European Central Bank's balance sheet, which is a reduction of around 12%, then we are now talking about perhaps the biggest tightening together with that of the 70s since World War II. So, we're close to the end. Now whether it's one more hike, two hikes, I can't tell you, that will depend on the inflation forecast, on the forecast of financial conditions in the euro area, we're already seeing a tightening of financial conditions, so we can't say as of now whether we will have one or two more increases.’
‘We are close to the end. We are not there yet, so I agree with Mrs Lagarde that we still have some way to go. We can't say yet how many increases there will be. This will depend on inflation forecasts, economic growth and financial conditions. … As things are developing today and, if nothing changes dramatically, we can say that interest rate increases will end in 2023. … Interest rates will remain where they are today or higher for a while until inflation gets very close to the 2% target. … [This time period] will not be small. As things stand today, we predict that inflation in the Eurozone will fall to 2% in 2025. Of course, it will also approach 2% in 2024 but will not reach the 2% target.’
Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
09 May 2023
‘Last week’s slowdown in the pace of our tightening does not mark the end of the path, nor does it say that job’s done. The development of core inflation, the continued buildup of wage pressures, and high-profit margins call for vigilance and reconfirm the need to continue on our path. Nevertheless, signs of peaking inflationary pressures, tightening of credit standards and the resilience of the European financial sector to the recent volatility in financial markets allowed us to return to what can be called “business as usual”. But as I said, the battle against inflation is far from won and there’s a plenty of ground left to cover. Based on today’s data, we will have to keep raising interest rates for longer than anticipated. So slowing down the pace to 25bp is a step that will allow us to go gradually higher for longer. Should that be necessary and warranted by incoming data. We will wait to see what the data shows in the coming months and how fiscal policy develops. The reluctance of European governments to exit non-targeted fiscal measures could create a problem to which this policy would have to respond unequivocally. It would be desired to avoid that. The jury is still out there. The recent bank lending survey confirmed that the transmission of our policies is working. Nevertheless, we can only assess the cumulative impact of higher interest rates and tightening conditions on financial markets after September. Therefore, our September forecast will be the earliest date to answer how effective our measures are and whether inflation is moving towards the target.’
Mário Centeno (Banco de Portugal)
31 May 2023
‘I believe that the recession can be avoided, but so that the economy does not suffer excessively, it must enter a period of price predictability that is currently not yet guaranteed. The inflation data for May in Spain are very positive and we must continue on that path, so that interest rates can stop rising in a couple of months. The market is already discounting two increases of 25bp in June and July, but we have to see what the numbers say. If prices can be contained, predictability can be achieved, and the Euribor can start to drop in 2024.’
‘Si seguimos subiendo los tipos después del verano, el impacto va a ser previsiblemente muy fuerte. El colchón de ahorro se va acortando, pero con previsibilidad las familias y empresas pueden hacer cuentas, y si se contiene la inflación se evitarán nuevas subidas de tipos. Por contra, si seguimos cargando los precios con mayores márgenes o salarios ahora, vamos a pagarlo en el medio plazo demasiado caro.’
‘We must be approaching the terminal rate. … [Monetary policy will then remain there] for some more time, but without raising rates, which should start to come down at some point during the year 2024.’
‘Whether this [the reaching of the terminal rate] is done in June or July [will] depend on inflation’.
Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
07 June 2023
‘In my view, what's likely to happen next week, when we meet at the ECB, is we're likely to move interest rates up again. … Based on what I know today, and that might change in the meantime, I think another, a further move, at our meeting in July is probable. But beyond that I’d just be joining in speculation.’
‘Certainly it's welcome that we've seen a fall in headline inflation, but what we're also seeing, […] underlying price pressures continuing to be strong, certainly continuing to be too strong to get inflation to take us to our 2% target.’
‘It [lower headline inflation] doesn't confirm to us that we've now done all we need to do to get inflation down. I think further action will be needed and will happen next week.’
‘So it [monetary policy] sets expectations and one of the dangers that I see at the moment, with some of what I've read anyway in the media and what I've heard in terms of tax policy and fiscal supports, is that fiscal policy could actually counteract what we are trying to do. … I think I have said, and others have said, that that support needs to be targeted, it needs to be temporary, it needs to be tailored to specific areas of help. What we've seen, and this isn't just in Ireland but across Europe, we have seen by and large that support has not been targeted and a lot of it does not so far appear to have been removed. So it's not necessarily been temporary. So I think people who need help should be helped. But it needs to be tailored carefully and again, as we said it, we need to think about what we're doing to aggregate demand as we're making those decisions.’
‘So I think for me, what it [latest inflation] says is that our next meeting, which is in just under two weeks, we're likely to see another increase. We haven't reached the moment where we can say let's now stop. We need to see and be confident that we're seeing inflation actually on a trajectory that is going to achieve our 2% target.’
‘We decided last month to actually move to a 25bp and I think if we make an increase again in a couple of weeks, it's likely to be of a similar size. I think that probably June and July, we'll see rate increases, but beyond that I think the picture is a lot less clear. In both cases, June, July and in the future, we're going to be driven by the data. We're going to be driven by what are the numbers telling us. What are we seeing in terms of inflation dynamics? How is our monetary policy being transmitted to the whole economy? And then we'll make a judgement.’
‘The outlook for inflation continues to be too high for too long: this means there is more ground to cover for central banks. Monetary policy must be brought to levels sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to target in a timely manner. … Monetary policy fights inflation mostly through two channels: first, by reducing aggregate demand, and second, by anchoring the expectation of future inflation to its target. At times like this – when inflation is already far too high– expansive fiscal policy risks undermining both of these mechanisms.’
‘Fiscal policy can be a major force for good, when it provides the stable foundation for a thriving economy, but it can also cause great harm by adding to inflationary pressures, which would inevitably call for an even stronger monetary policy response. Monetary and fiscal policies need to work together to shore up macroeconomic stability.’
‘Looking ahead to June, our next round of projections will be a useful input in determining the policy prescription. They will be complemented by three further and important inputs: incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and an assessment of the strength of transmission. Monetary policy affects the economy and inflation with long and varied lags, and the full effects of our tightening are still likely ahead of us. In saying that, however, and given our current outlook for inflation, we are likely to be close to ‘the top of the ladder’, so slowing the pace to standard rate steps is appropriate. The calibration of monetary policy from here has to remain data dependent given prevailing uncertainties. But what is certain is our commitment to price stability. Bringing inflation back to its 2% target in the medium term will lay the foundation for a strong euro area economy.’
‘My gut feeling at the moment from everything I have seen is that we'll be moving rates again at our June meeting and it wouldn't surprise me if we're moving again at our July meeting.’
‘Another two steps seem to be my lead options.’
‘I'm very, very relaxed about what markets are pricing at the moment, partly because their pricing for the next couple of meetings is not inconsistent with where I am. As for what they price in 2024, that’s just a punt, as far as I’m concerned.’
‘I think that we can definitely achieve our target without a recession. The underlying dynamics do appear to be pretty strong, and the labour market is in robust health.’
‘So far we haven’t seen wage settlements on the pan euro area level that raises concerns, even if in some countries there have been wage settlement that are going to be problematic for those countries.’
Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
30 May 2023
‘I think we will see a 25bp rate hike each in June and July. Will this continue in September? Let's take our time, because there is still a long time before that period and there will be at least two more rounds of forecasts - in June, September - and of course a lot of data on the economy, which at the moment I would say is sometimes conflicting.’
‘Inflation is too high for too long and over the next couple of ECB Governing Council meetings, I think we should see further increases in key interest rates. Not as fast as it used to be - admittedly 75 or 50bp increases are unconventional, but they should continue to increase.’
Robert Holzmann (Austrian National Bank)
16 May 2023
‘… if I was for 50bp last time, I would be for 50bp next time, too. As long as we’re below 4%, we won’t be at a level of interest rates that allows us to pause and wait to see how things develop. I think we need to go beyond a 4% interest rate in order to draw even with the US – again, taking into account the different levels of r* - and it’s just a matter of whether we should go faster or slower. My assessment would be that faster would be more appropriate, in order to get to our terminal rate without wasting time. Because in such a case, ultimately, it also means that we can come back down sooner. Whereas if we go up slower, it is likely to require that we stay high for longer. And I prefer the former solution. … But unfortunately, the decision was another one, and so we have to move more slowly, which means that to get to 4% we need to take three more steps, and to get above 4% we need four more increases. As things are currently, that’s to get to the level we need to be at to deal with inflation. Perhaps there will be some miracle and we can stop sooner, but I don’t think it’s likely. … My focus is always on underlying inflation, which is approximated by core inflation, and core inflation has barely budged. It’s still very high, and although the rate hikes we‘ve already taken are beginning to have a small effect, I don’t think it will come down much more this year. Maybe a little bit. So, given this persistence of inflation, we have to be careful not to miss the train by hiking only after we needed to, which could force us to be much more rigorous and forceful with policy in the future.’
Boris Vujčić (Croatian National Bank)
05 June 2023
‘I would say that the current data that we have, both on the real economic activity and the current data on the inflation that we just got are showing that the disinflationary process is underway as expected and as we predict, which is a good thing. However, if you look at the core inflation … I think we need more data to be confident how quick this process is. We see it happening, we expect it to be gradual, but I think that the risks to the gradualism … are still tilted a bit to the upside. But we definitely need to be data-dependent and look into the new data that are coming.’
‘We have to look at our own data. I think that the interest rate parity in terms of the euro-dollar is not unimportant, but it’s of less importance than the data that I just explained that we are looking at. So, whatever the Fed decides to do, they will do it according to the US data, and we will still have to do what we need to do, and I think that we are not at the end of the hiking cycle, but we are getting closer to the terminal rate.’
‘I think … that we are still in the … hiking cycle. Until when, we will have to see, and it will really depend on the data. I don’t know. I have no idea. We have to see how the data will come in.’
‘The question of course now is how strong are underlying inflation pressures …it’s questionable … if we’re going to be at 2% within the next two years.’
‘The monetary policy pass-through is there, but the pass-through is very different across the Eurozone countries. … It might be a problem for a currency union if you have such a heterogeneity of the pass through of policy.’
‘I would say that the conclusion for me [about monetary policy’s impact on lending] at least for the moment is still not straightforward. … I would think we still need more data before we make firm conclusions.’
Gaston Reinesch (Central Bank of Luxembourg)
Constantinos Herodotou (Central Bank of Cyprus)
18 May 2023
‘Currently, monetary policy is in the restrictive territory, as reflected in the significant tightening of the financing conditions. Even though headline inflation is declining, and financing conditions are tighter, there is still a lot of uncertainty. This is the main reason that a data-dependent approach on future policy rate decisions is required - in order to assess the headline and core inflation outlook on the basis of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. Policy rates need to be brought to and maintained at the necessary restrictive levels to achieve a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target, while the same data-dependent approach will determine the potency and duration of this restriction.’
‘As evidenced by recent data, especially the bank lending survey, the interest rate is at a restrictive level known as restrictive monetary policy.’
END