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Exclusive: ECB Insider: See No Realistic Scenario Where We Reduce Balance Sheet by Much Next Year

Exclusive: ECB Insider: See No Realistic Scenario Where We Reduce Balance Sheet by Much Next Year

- ECB insider on QT: ‘Even if there’s a discussion, we still have fears’
- ECB insider: ‘It can be very fragile on European bond markets’
- ECB insider: ‘We can’t just sell the bonds; it’s impossible’
- ECB insider: Could test APP roll-off at €20bn/month if markets, general economic situation permit
- ECB insider: ‘When you do QT, it is very different than when you do QE’; no symmetry
- ECB insider: Sizeable camp would like to be cautious, not commit ourselves to many things

25 November 2022 Central Bank News
ECB’s Centeno Qualifies Earlier Warning of Cost of Policy Inaction, Comes out Against 75BP

ECB’s Centeno Qualifies Earlier Warning of Cost of Policy Inaction, Comes out Against 75BP

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Days after repeating his warning that the economic cost of monetary policy inaction in the face of high inflation would be greater than the cost of higher interest rates, European Central Bank Governing Council member Mario Centeno on Thursday suggested that neither does he want much policy action.

24 November 2022 Central Bank News
Exclusive: ECB Insider: ‘I’m Almost Sure’ That December Hike Will Be 50BP

Exclusive: ECB Insider: ‘I’m Almost Sure’ That December Hike Will Be 50BP

- ECB insider: Hawks can accept slower hiking if terminal rate unaffected and progress made on QT
- ECB insider: Many Governing Council members fear hiking substantially just before a recession
- ECB insider: October’s 75bp hike was already ‘not so easy’
- ECB insider: ECB President Lagarde likely ‘senses that there is no clear consensus for 75’
- ECB insider: See risk of much more political opposition to hiking as soon as some countries enter recession
- ECB insider: Hawks will feel they must ask for 75bp hike even if they expect outcome to be 50bp

24 November 2022 Central Bank News
ECB’s Nagel: I’m Not Calling for a Rate Move of any Particular Size

ECB’s Nagel: I’m Not Calling for a Rate Move of any Particular Size

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel on Monday reiterated his call for further decisive monetary policy action, but indicated that he was not seeking a December rate hike of a particular magnitude.

22 November 2022 Central Bank News
Exclusive: ECB’s Holzmann: If Things Stay Unchanged Between Now and Dec 15, I Would Go for 75BP

Exclusive: ECB’s Holzmann: If Things Stay Unchanged Between Now and Dec 15, I Would Go for 75BP

- Holzmann: ‘If things remain unchanged from now to the decision, then I would go for 75’ bp
- Holzmann: If there were a ‘major reduction’ in HICP this month, ‘I could go along with 50’ bp
- Holzmann: No ‘major recession’ seen for now
- Holzmann: On QT, see ‘‘strong consensus that we should start small to test the markets’
- Holzmann: QT should start with APP, only involve PEPP ‘much later’
- Holzmann: Roll-off of assets acquired under the APP can overlap with rate hikes
- Holzmann: ‘Still very much concerned that a de-anchoring of inflation expectations will take place’
- Holzmann: Recent German wage agreement ‘acceptable’, but may lead companies to increase prices

21 November 2022 Central Bank News
They Said It: Recent ECB Policymaker Comments on Quantitative Tightening

They Said It: Recent ECB Policymaker Comments on Quantitative Tightening

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – To the reasonably complete compendium published here last Thursday of recent public comments by European Central Bank Governing Council members touching on the subject of quantitative tightening, we have added remarks made on Friday.

21 November 2022 Central Bank News
ECB’s Knot: ‘We Have to Hang in There for Quite a Long Time’

ECB’s Knot: ‘We Have to Hang in There for Quite a Long Time’

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot on Friday said that the terminal rate of the current ECB hiking cycle could not be known under the current circumstances, but that monetary authorities still had much to do.

18 November 2022 Central Bank News