Latest News

Exclusive: ECB Anti-Spreads Programme to Face Bumpy Path, Econostream Understands

Exclusive: ECB Anti-Spreads Programme to Face Bumpy Path, Econostream Understands
- ECB insider: Permanent mechanism would call EMU’s institutional set-up into question
- ECB insider: Permanent, unconditional facility would amount to transfer union via backdoor
- ECB insider: Facility limited to targeting temporary crisis situations more likely outcome

ECB Has Much to Debate, But Lagarde May Have Much Less to Communicate

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The April monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is set to be the scene of particularly interesting deliberations to which the subsequent communication by ECB President Christine Lagarde may not live up, given the likely absence of any major decisions and a clear preference for leaving options open.

They Said it - Recent Monetary Policy Comments Made by ECB Governing Council Members

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is a reasonably complete compendium of the most recent comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members with respect to monetary policy. Updates are made on a periodic basis.

ECB Insight: Amid the Clamour of ECB Hawks, a Dovish Trio Exploits the Quiet Period to Be Heard

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As if to counter the growing perception that tighter European Central Bank monetary policy has become a juggernaut, three Governing Council members on Friday bent the rules of the ECB’s so-called quiet period somewhat in a demonstration of unified reluctance to endorse the dominant trend.

ECB’s Herodotou: Just Because Inflation Tops 2%, That’s No Reason to Hike Rates

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Constantinos Herodotou on Friday said that inflation in excess of 2% was not per se grounds to hike official borrowing costs.

ECB’s Makhlouf: ‘Incredibly Uncertain’ Whether and When We Need to Take Action

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf on Friday said that it was extremely unclear what and when the ECB needed to take monetary policy steps.

ECB’s Stournaras: We’ll Do Whatever it Takes Not to Let Inflation Become Structural

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank will do whatever is needed to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched, ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said Friday.

Exclusive: ECB’s Net Asset Purchases Most Likely to End in July, Official Says

Exclusive: ECB’s Net Asset Purchases Most Likely to End in July, Official Says
- Official: optionality of September rate hike still open; decision in June at the latest
- Official: inflation showing up in wages is still ‘the missing link at the moment’

ECB’s Nagel: Savers May Soon Be Able to Look Forward to Higher Interest Rates Again

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Savers may benefit before long from increased interest rates, European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said late Wednesday.

ECB Insight: Panetta Still No Fan of Normalisation, But No Longer Quite as Bent on Thwarting It

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta on Wednesday recited his most current litany of reasons why monetary policy tightening shouldn’t be necessary, but his opposition seemed to have weakened and his previous downplaying of high inflation to have given way to a less categorical view.

Central Bank of Ireland: If Wages Follow Inflation, Harmfully High Inflation Could Entrench

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Wage developments in line with inflation or without regard to productivity would exacerbate the danger of a wage-price spiral, according to the Central Bank of Ireland on Wednesday.

ECB’s de Guindos: Financial Stability Impact of War Relatively Contained So Far

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos on Wednesday said that Russian military aggression against Ukraine had not materially affected euro area financial stability.

ECB Insight: ECB’s Lane Says Inflation to Peak by Mid-2022…Maybe

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Philip Lane on Tuesday ventured an initial guess as to when euro area inflation would cease to mount.

ECB Insight: Momentum Behind 2022 Rates Lift-Off Gathers Further

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Almost two weeks after our last review of where each European Central Bank Governing Council member stands on rates lift-off in the current year, we take another look to see whether our informal impression that support for this has been growing stands up to inspection. It does.

They Said it - Recent Monetary Policy Comments Made by ECB Governing Council Members

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is a reasonably complete compendium of the most recent comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members with respect to monetary policy. Updates are made on a periodic basis.

Exclusive: ECB Touts ‘Gradualism’ to Keep Markets Calm, But Data Will Set the Pace, Econostream Understands

Exclusive: ECB Touts ‘Gradualism’ to Keep Markets Calm, But Data Will Set the Pace, Econostream Understands
- Official: Some countries still extremely fragile with respect to financial market conditions
- Official: Gradualism needed to make sure that we don’t see market overreaction coming

ECB’s Vasle: Let’s Get Away from Negative Interest Rates by Year’s End

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Boštjan Vasle on Monday spoke out in favour of eliminating negative official borrowing costs by the end of 2022.

ECB Insight: Holzmann: Severe Scenario May Be Baseline Now; Could See HICP of 10% or Higher

ECB’s Holzmann: Severe Scenario May Be Baseline Now; Could See HICP of 10% or Higher

- Worries inflation of 10% and higher could be coming, with output stagnant or negative

- Suggests that much depends on Chinese willingness to help resolve war
- Initial signs that inflation expectations may be rising

Exclusive: ECB officials saw March HICP forecast as too optimistic, Econostream understands

ECB officials saw March HICP forecast as too optimistic, Econostream understands
- Official: Clear already during the meeting that the baseline scenario is too optimistic
- Official: We’re now in one of the other more negative scenarios, not the baseline

ECB Insight: ECB’s Lane Reinforces Perception of Willingness to Normalise Policy

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – After having conceded explicitly on Tuesday that, while no given, a first rate hike in 2022 was at least possible, European Central Bank Executive Board member Philip Lane on Thursday appeared to endorse more generally the gradual normalisation of monetary policy.