Latest News

ECB Insight: Net Asset Purchases Likelier to End in June, With Early July Probably Option Two

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – We wrote yesterday that we consider a June end to the European Central Bank’s net asset purchases probable, without ruling out the beginning of July. In the interim, we have grown more confident that these are in fact the choices, and prefer the former.

ECB Insight: Lagarde Avoids Stoking Expectations, But Makes Little Effort to Dampen Them

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Saturday steered clear of offering financial markets much new in the way of guidance about the timing with which monetary accommodation would be withdrawn, but neither was she keen to dampen expectations, and her comments on the economy suggested a degree of confidence.

ECB Insight: Elderson Confirms 50-Bps to Be Discussed, Avoids Revealing Own View

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Frank Elderson on Friday confirmed that a 50-bps rate hike will be on the ECB’s agenda shortly, but gave no indication as to whether he supported a policy move of that size.

ECB Insight: Amid Growing Concern About Inflation, a New Panetta is Forced to Emerge

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – What a change a few weeks can make. On Thursday, European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta made substantive comments about the proper course for monetary policy that to some extent could have been uttered by a relatively hawkish member of the ECB’s Governing Council.

ECB Insight: Schnabel Ready to Hike in July After Ending Net Asset Purchases in June

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel on Tuesday presented a strong case for taking policy action relatively soon, suggesting in particular that net asset purchases could end in June with a first rate hike the following month.

ECB Hawk-Dove Ranking: At Long Last, Governing Council as a Whole Enters Hawkish Territory

They Said it - Recent Monetary Policy Comments Made by ECB Governing Council Members

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is a reasonably complete compendium of the most recent comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members with respect to monetary policy. Updates are made on a periodic basis.

ECB Insight: de Guindos Makes July Lift-Off Sound No Less Likely Than It Was, Perhaps Even More

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos on Sunday reinforced the notion that the ECB could hike rates as soon as July, all while somewhat perfunctorily assuring that the precise date was no foregone conclusion.

ECB Brief: Holzmann Says July Governing Council Meeting Will Be ‘Most Interesting and Difficult’

- Holzmann: One purchase programme still there, scheduled to end in July
- Holzmann: Greatest concern is inflation expectations

ECB Insight: With Policy Tightening Looming Ever Larger, Super-Dove Visco Mounts a Last Stand

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Ignazio Visco on Thursday appeared torn between alternately conceding the inevitability of tighter monetary policy and staving it off.

Exclusive: More Pronounced Euro Weakness a Headache for ECB, Econostream Understands

- ECB insider: Higher depreciation of euro can affect HICP projection at end of horizon
- ECB insider: Agree with Klaas Knot that we should counter continued euro depreciation
- ECB insider: ‘Sudden [exchange rate] shifts need to be taken into account’

ECB: Price Rises More Widespread, Upside Inflation Risks Have Intensified

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Price pressures have broadened and it is unclear how long underlying inflation will persist at levels above 2%, the European Central Bank said on Thursday.

ECB Insight: Kazāks Gets Behind a July Lift-Off as a ‘Better Option’ than September

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Mārtiņš Kazāks on Tuesday positioned himself in favour of a July rate hike rather than for the next-best option of a September lift-off.

ECB Insight: ECB Ready to Handle Potentially Large TLTRO Repayment End-June

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank is ready to deal with the possibility of an outsized repayment two months from now of funding provided banks under the ECB’s targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs), Econostream understands.

They Said it - Recent Monetary Policy Comments Made by ECB Governing Council Members

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is a reasonably complete compendium of the most recent comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members with respect to monetary policy. Updates are made on a periodic basis.

ECB’s Lagarde: Must Act in a Gradual Way So That We Don’t Induce Recession

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Sunday indicated that once the ECB’s net asset purchases were over, the ECB would decide on the details of interest rate increases, acting gradually so as to preserve economic growth.

Exclusive: 50-bp Rate Hike Not ECB Baseline for Now, But Council Will Have to Discuss

Exclusive: 50-bp Rate Hike Not ECB Baseline for Now, But Council Will Have to Discuss
- ECB insider: Some hawks will push for 50-bp hike to get away from negative rates
- ECB insider: Expect spread between DFR and MRO to be narrowed during normalisation

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters Shows Near-Term Inflation Higher, but Medium Term Stable

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Professional forecasters now expect inflation this year and next to be higher than they anticipated three months ago, but are sticking to their previous prediction regarding medium-term HICP, the European Central Bank said on Friday.

ECB Insight: Lagarde Treads Carefully, But Renews Stress on Continued Normalisation

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday took care not to show much bias in any direction, but as in March, the message came though nonetheless that Russia’s campaign of aggression against Ukraine was not standing in the way of the ECB's monetary policy normalisation.

ECB Insight: An End to Russia’s War on Ukraine Might Make Little Difference for Monetary Policy

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – If Russia’s unjustified war of aggression against Ukraine were to come to an end soon, Europe would breathe a collective sigh of relief at the halting of bloodshed, but European central bankers would not necessarily see a major impact on monetary policy, Econostream understands.