By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The April monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is set to be the scene of particularly interesting deliberations to which the subsequent communication by ECB President Christine Lagarde may not live up, given the likely absence of any major decisions and a clear preference for leaving options open.
12 April 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As if to counter the growing perception that tighter European Central Bank monetary policy has become a juggernaut, three Governing Council members on Friday bent the rules of the ECB’s so-called quiet period somewhat in a demonstration of unified reluctance to endorse the dominant trend.
8 April 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta on Wednesday recited his most current litany of reasons why monetary policy tightening shouldn’t be necessary, but his opposition seemed to have weakened and his previous downplaying of high inflation to have given way to a less categorical view.
6 April 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Philip Lane on Tuesday ventured an initial guess as to when euro area inflation would cease to mount.
5 April 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Almost two weeks after our last review of where each European Central Bank Governing Council member stands on rates lift-off in the current year, we take another look to see whether our informal impression that support for this has been growing stands up to inspection. It does.
5 April 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – After having conceded explicitly on Tuesday that, while no given, a first rate hike in 2022 was at least possible, European Central Bank Executive Board member Philip Lane on Thursday appeared to endorse more generally the gradual normalisation of monetary policy.
31 March 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Under normal circumstances, one month’s HICP even for the entire Eurozone, let alone for any individual economy, would have few implications for the European Central Bank’s monetary policy.
30 March 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Far from talking down the possibility of rates lift-off this year, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane on Tuesday conceded explicitly that while no given, a first hike in 2022 was at least possible.
29 March 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – That European Central Bank Executive Board member Frank Elderson would avoid staking out controversial positions in his speech Thursday was probably inevitable, but in some subtle respects his messaging appeared consistent with the at least mildly hawkish stance we expected a priori.
24 March 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The sore subject of the trustworthiness of the European Central Bank’s staff macroeconomic forecasts is flaring up again following the publication of projections two weeks ago implying that medium-term euro area HICP would be so obliging as to emerge from the current extreme turbulence at levels conveniently consistent with the ECB’s 2% price stability target.
24 March 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Three weeks after our last review of where each European Central Bank Governing Council member stands on whether or not to start hiking interest rates this year, we re-examine the question. Our finding, summed up: the more things change, the more they stay the same.
23 March 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – There was no secret motive behind the recent change in wording of the European Central Bank’s forward guidance, Econostream understands.
21 March 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – A week having passed since our last review of where each European Central Bank Governing Council member stands on the question of whether or not to start hiking interest rates this year, we want to take another look at the issue.
1 March 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Three months after his last public comments on monetary policy, European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta on Monday clung as tenaciously as ever to accommodative monetary policy.
28 February 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Friday declined to speculate as to the ultimate economic impact on the euro area of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s aggression against Ukraine (transcript of her remarks here ), but noted that there would be opposing effects while also suggesting that price and financial stability would ultimately decide the course of monetary policy.
25 February 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – That geopolitical turmoil without precedent in Europe in the last 75 years should lead the European Central Bank to tread with heightened caution is entirely understandable, and it would be more than odd if it didn’t. We think this truism is essentially what Governing Council member Robert Holzmann had in mind on Thursday.
25 February 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot’s Sunday interview revealed a clear and hawkish shift in his thinking that apparently took place over a relatively short period of time.
7 February 2022