- ECB insiders express unwillingness to court financial instability needlessly
- ECB insiders suggest that passive run-off of balance sheet could prove sufficient for now
- ECB insiders indicate readiness to leave PEPP forward guidance in its current form
- ECB insiders focused on interest rates rather than other instruments in toolkit
By Xavier D’Arcy – SINTRA, Portugal (Econostream) - Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 27 June with Mário Centeno, Governor of Banco de Portugal and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank:
28 June 2023
- Centeno: ‘We better be careful about producing substantial statements about the future’
- Centeno: Announcing decisions ahead of time ‘goes against the strategy’
- Centeno: Governing Council ‘will speak in July’ about what to do
- Centeno: 2024 rate cut ‘compatible with a reduction of inflation to 2% in the medium term’
- Centeno: ECB staff projections ‘may be optimistic in terms of GDP’ and ‘pessimistic on inflation’
- Centeno: ‘How can I be stressed about a projection that says that in 2025 […] inflation is 2.2%?’
- Centeno: Baseline ECB scenario is ‘end to the inflationary process without […] major disruptions’
- Centeno: Pass-through from rate hikes ‘may come abruptly’
- Centeno: Eurozone labour market ‘much more fluid’
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 26 June with Mārtiņš Kazāks, Governor of Latvijas Banka and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank:
28 June 2023
- Kazāks: PEPP reinvestment important for flexibility reasons
- Kazāks: No need for any changes to the PEPP reinvestment at the moment
- Kazāks: Balance sheet adjustment ‘very much driven by the TLTROs’
- Kazāks: Fiscal policy must become less expansionary, or rates will have to go up even more
- Kazāks: Rates should stay high ‘as long as inflation is not significantly undershooting the target’
- Kazāks: Expectation of rate cut in 1H 2024 ‘inconsistent with the baseline macro scenario’
- Kazāks: ‘We will not be done, in my view, in July, and there will be more rate hikes necessary’
- Kazāks: ‘If necessary, we can take a pause and then return to rate hikes’
- Kazāks: ‘The risks of doing too little are higher than the risks of doing too much’
- Kazāks: Lagarde ‘very skilful in getting almost all of us behind every one of our decisions’
- ECB Insiders: Two of Three Surveyed Inclined to Hike Anew in September
- ECB Insiders Reject Market Expectations of Initial Easing Move in 1H 2024
- ECB Insiders Want to Leave Interest Rates at Terminal Level for Some Time
- ECB Insiders: July Rate Hike More or Less a Given
By Xavier D’Arcy – PARIS (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 03 May with Agence France Trésor Chief Executive Cyril Rousseau:
17 May 2023
- AFT's Rousseau sees ‘slightly higher demand’ for domestic inflation-linked products
- AFT's Rousseau: 10% inflation-linked target ‘not a fixed target but rather a soft one’
- AFT's Rousseau: ‘Don’t think de-anchoring is the main explanation’ for inflation swaps trading high
- AFT's Rousseau: Looks like resumption of money market activities by sovereigns ‘have not destabilised the market’
By David Barwick – VIENNA (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 15 May 2023 with Robert Holzmann, Governor of the Austrian National Bank and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank:
16 May 2023
By David Barwick – VIENNA (Econostream) – The European Central Bank is hopefully heading for a terminal rate of somewhat above 4%, even if the smaller moves that are now likelier to characterise monetary tightening could imply hiking interest rates beyond the summer, according to ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann.
16 May 2023
By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 3 May with Markus Stix, Managing Director in charge of markets at the Austrian Treasury:
11 May 2023
- Austria plans ‘to tap 2049 green bond by €1bn via auction or syndication’
- Austria ‘will continue decreasing the maturity of our new issuance’
- Green CP programme demand split 50/50 USD and euro, 1m to 3m maturity
- Reintroduction of ECB ceiling has ‘no significant implications’ for Austria’
- April syndication order book saw lot of real money investors, fewer fast money accounts
- ECB insider: Won’t be surprised if we hike by 25bp, but wouldn’t exclude another outcome
- ECB insider: Risk of doing too little currently still greater than the risk of doing too much
- ECB insider: Would require a ‘quite negative’ April inflation surprise for me to support 50bp
By David Barwick – WASHINGTON (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 15 April 2023 with Pierre Wunsch, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank.
19 April 2023
By David Barwick – WASHINGTON (Econostream) – The turmoil that hit banking sectors in various global jurisdictions last month will not necessarily have any significant bearing on the monetary policy decision to be made by the European Central Bank in two weeks, according to ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch.
19 April 2023
By David Barwick – VILNIUS (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 05 April 2023 with Gediminas Šimkus, Governor of the Bank of Lithuania and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank.
6 April 2023
- Šimkus: Active asset sales ‘could be an option some day in the future’, but not for July
- Šimkus: ‘Let’s deal with the APP and then come back to the PEPP’
- Šimkus: ‘I don’t see a pause in hiking rates in May as a likely scenario’
- Šimkus: Size of rate moves ‘will depend on the data, but we still have some way to go’
- Šimkus: ‘We still need to let the impact of past policy moves kick in’
- Šimkus: ‘Need to maintain the restrictive stance for quite some time’
- Šimkus: ‘Very unlikely that we will see any decrease in interest rates this year’
- Šimkus: OPEC oil production cut a ‘one-off factor’; no need to ‘overreact or exaggerate’
- Šimkus: Core inflation to ‘remain pretty high’ throughout 2023
- Šimkus: Core inflation ‘stickier than many people think’
- Diemer: Don't have to make changes to auction calendar just because energy prices lower
- Diemer: Inversion of German yield curve has no impact on our issuance activities
- Diemer: Want to be a predictable issuer and want to be an issuer that focuses on auctions
- Diemer: Will do whatever is needed and in our hands to support functioning of Bund market
- Diemer: Need to create additional incentives to attract new investors to green segment
- Scicluna: Ramifications of bank turmoil to be felt for some time, also in Europe
- Scicluna: ‘We strongly believe in the robustness and resilience of our system’
- Scicluna: If we don’t see core inflation peaking, then our job is to continue attacking inflation
- Scicluna: Would be presumptuous for me to say now that I’ll want 50bp in May; must see data
- Scicluna: ‘Nowhere near’ the wage-price spiral we’ve had in the past
- Scicluna: Updated forecasts appeared to us to be out of date the same day
- Scicluna: If core inflation rises, then those who are for tightening will get the upper hand
- Scicluna: ‘Wouldn’t be highly concerned with the results we’re getting from wage settlements so far’
- Scicluna: ‘No indications that we’re seeing’ the light at the end of the inflation tunnel
- Scicluna: Mopping up liquidity is another way to subdue inflation
- Scicluna: Last week’s decision gives sense of stability; you don’t create more stability by hesitating
- ECB insider: ‘No doubt that we are still in a tightening mode’
- ECB insider: No hurry to decide on next move, can wait until the time comes
- ECB insider: 50bp hike not much when real interest rates clearly negative
- ECB insider: 4.5% terminal rate only if inflation turns out unexpectedly persistent