ECB’s Kažimír: Major Baseline Departure Needed to Recalibrate Policy

9 February 2026

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Peter Kažimír on Monday said it would take “a major departure from our baseline scenario” for him to consider changing the ECB's current policy setting.

Kažimír, who heads the Národná banka Slovenska, wrote in a blog post on the central bank's website that policymakers had begun the year in an “orderly, even slightly boring” stretch, with no developments that would have forced a move away from the interest rate level in place since June.

Incoming data, he argued, had validated the “confidence and cautious optimism” embedded in the December forecast, even as he characterized the overall backdrop as fragile and prone to renewed turbulence.

Uncertainty remained high and volatility was likely to persist in coming months, he said, calling for close monitoring of how sentiment and financial conditions feed through to the economy and inflation.

On prices, Kažimír said inflation risks looked “balanced” and inflation was close to target, while warning that this assessment currently depended on favorable energy price dynamics.

A stronger-than-expected economic performance could revive upside inflation risks, he wrote, while citing the exchange rate as an element on the downside-risk side of the balance.

“The euro exchange rate has been, and remains, in the spotlight,” Kažimír said, adding: “We do not target the exchange rate, it’s a bone-hard fact.”

Any further appreciation would need to be weighed against the euro area’s relative economic performance and the medium-term inflation target, he said.