ECB Insight: Rehn’s Post-Vujčić Path to Board Seat Runs Through Spain

26 January 2026

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Croatian National Bank Governor Boris Vujčić’s elevation to the ECB vice presidency has turned Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn’s next opportunity into a conditional one. The calendar leaves room for at most one more smaller-country appointment before late 2028, and whether that path exists depends critically on what Spain manages to claim in the 2027 succession contest.

The main problem for all smaller member states is that time is not on their side. Barring an early departure, three Board positions are likely to be in play over the next three years: Philip Lane’s seat from 1 June 2027, Christine Lagarde’s presidency from 1 November 2027, and Isabel Schnabel’s seat from 1 January 2028.

Everything else is effectively locked down. Dutchman Frank Elderson’s mandate runs until 14 December 2028 and Italian Piero Cipollone’s until 31 October 2031. Vujčić’s term will run from 1 June 2026 through 31 May 2034.

But of the three near-term openings, the political reality is that two won’t be all that open: Germany and France can probably be counted on to insist on continued representation.

One implication is that this leaves only one seat as the principal opening through which a smaller country could realistically enter the Board in the 2027 cycle. The other is that in any plausible constellation, the Board will include nationals of Croatia, France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands.

In that setting, Spain becomes a swing variable—and therefore the key determinant of whether there is space for Rehn or any other representative of a small state.

Madrid has already signaled its reluctance to contemplate a Board devoid of Spaniards. It would be easy at this stage to dismiss this as posturing. What lends it credibility, however, is that not just one but two Spanish nationals are both obvious potential candidates for the presidency.

We refer of course to former Banco de España Governor Pablo Hernández de Cos, now head of the Bank for International Settlements, and European Investment Bank President Nadia Calviño.

Being able to field such credible candidates makes it likelier that Spain will seek a seat. In particular, Madrid could have a decent shot at the presidency, probably the only position for which either de Cos or Calviño would make the move to Frankfurt.

That is, the two main scenarios from today’s perspective are:

• Spain successfully presses a claim to a seat in 2027
• Spain, for whatever reason, does not seek a seat or fails to get one

Under both scenarios, smaller states have an incentive to enter the fray, since not making the requisite effort is the surest way of coming up empty. Moreover, all three 2027 openings may be decided in a package, suggesting that interested parties would be best served by making clear their availability, without—in most cases—tying their candidacy inseparably to one particular seat.

If Spain gets any seat, whether the presidency or another, does not change the math. Any Spanish Board member would inevitably crowd out all smaller member states not already represented (Croatia and the Netherlands).

Only if Spain decides to sit it out until at least the end of 2028 or if its bid for a seat meets with failure, would one Board seat literally have go to another smaller member state.

Here Rehn would have a chance, but it is hard to see how a Finn would fit the existing geographic composition of the Board. Given that the Board would already include Croatia, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, then absent a Spaniard, the residual “balance” instinct could easily tilt toward another Iberian or Southern European small-state name—making ex-Banco de Portugal Governor Mário Centeno a more intuitive fit than a Finn.

However, the decision may also turn on other factors, including gender or monetary policy philosophy—in addition to which other contenders will doubtless materialize.

In any case, we don’t count Rehn out. Experienced, well-known and likely to be taken from the get-go as a serious contender, Rehn might stand a chance.

But his window is not indefinite. Rehn will be 65 years and two months old when Lane’s term ends on 31 May 2027 and five months older when Lagarde leaves. By our calculations, ECB presidents have been about 62 years and 11 months on average on assuming office, with Mario Draghi the oldest at 64 years and two months. Board members in general have been somewhat younger on average at the start of their terms.

The bottom line is that Vujčić’s victory does not eliminate Rehn, but much depends on factors outside of his control. For Rehn and for other smaller member states, the key question is whether Spain’s 2027 strategy leaves a seat genuinely available—and whether leaders want that seat filled by a Northern European figure or by a different small-country compromise, perhaps reflecting gender, geographic or other considerations.