ECB’s Kazāks: Wouldn’t Overestimate the Importance of 2028 Projections

31 October 2025

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Mārtiņš Kazāks on Friday suggested that the ECB’s 2028 projections to be issued in December were subject to too much uncertainty to motivate any policy shift.

“The 2028 forecast will be very important to look at, to see where inflation dynamics are going, but I would not overestimate the importance,” Kazāks, who heads Latvijas Banka, told Bloomberg. “Uncertainty remains high and is unlikely to disappear, so forecasts will come with a very large margin of error.”

“If we see that we need to move, then we move — but we don’t need to be jumpy,” he said, essentially repeating what he had said to Econostream nine days ago. “The steadiness of our policy decisions is an advantage.”

Inflation was “practically at around 2%” and expectations were “well anchored,” the agency quoted him as saying. The ECB had “time to really monitor the situation,” he said.

Developments since the ECB’s September meeting had been consistent with the central scenario, he indicated.

“Inflation risks are more balanced,” he said. “Risks to growth as well because some — including those related to trade — have diminished for now. But I would still say they’re tilted somewhat to the downside. Growth is quite weak and vulnerable rather than solid, and uncertainty is very high.”