ECB Insight: Cipollone’s Hawkish-Tinged Optimism Marks a Shift in Tone

24 September 2025

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Piero Cipollone's latest message is as striking for its tone as for its content. The Italian policymaker, generally seen as part of the Governing Council’s more dovish contingent, struck an unexpectedly upbeat note on growth and offered no hint of encouragement to those hoping for easier policy.

Cipollone does not speak on monetary policy frequently, and his previous comments on the subject date from July 26. At that time, Cipollone had emphasized “conflicting signals” clouding the outlook.

Growth, he said then, was flattered by frontloading, consumption was softening, and risks to activity were tilted to the downside. Inflation, while assessed as balanced, remained subject to trade-related uncertainty. His message was one of caution: clarity would come only in September.

The September Governing Council meeting has come and gone, and the contrast could hardly be sharper. In an interview published Wednesday with Bloomberg, Cipollone highlighted the ECB’s upgrade of the 2025 growth forecast from 0.9% to 1.2%, calling it the first upward revision “in a long time.”

He stressed that euro area growth is underpinned by solid fundamentals — from a resilient labor market to positive financial conditions for households and corporates — and suggested the economy was “doing pretty well.”

Equally notable was his characterization of inflation risks as “very balanced” and inflation expectations as “well anchored.” Far from dwelling on downside risks, Cipollone depicted an economy and price environment broadly on track, while acknowledging that geopolitical shocks could always intervene.

It is true that he also pointed ahead to the December meeting, noting that the ECB would have much more information at hand by then. This was less a hint of dovish intent than a procedural acknowledgement — a nod to the timeline when the easing debate could be re-opened.

Indeed, he underlined the ECB’s readiness to respond “in any direction,” but without sounding in the least inclined toward renewed easing.

Coming from Cipollone, the shift matters. Italian voices at the ECB have historically leaned dovish, and his earlier interviews fit that mold, while reflecting a restraint befitting his Board position that his predecessor, now Banca d’Italia Governor Fabio Panetta, did not always strive for.

By contrast, his latest comments carried no dovish shading whatsoever: no suggestion of lingering downside bias on growth, no signaling of openness to further rate cuts in the near term. Instead, the message was one of resilience, stability, and optionality.

That stance puts him closer to the ECB’s centrists, and it subtly bolsters President Lagarde’s effort to frame the current moment as one where inflation is on course, growth is improving, and policy can remain steady without rushing toward more accommodation.

For markets primed to listen for hints of easing from southern European voices, Cipollone’s words are a reminder that the dovish center of gravity on the Governing Council is not immutable.