ECB Insight: Policy Uncertainty Meets Wave of Turnover at Governing Council

17 July 2025

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Amid intense debate over monetary easing, the European Central Bank is in the midst of another shift: a wave of Governing Council turnover. At least two—more likely four to six—new members will join by 2026, with potential implications for policy dynamics.

The Council has already seen some turnover, most notably with the 1 July departure of Klaas Knot, governor of the Dutch National Bank. Various other members have seen their terms of office renewed in the last six months.

But there’s a lot more to come. Details follow:

Banka Slovenije: The last day in office of the Slovenian central bank’s previous governor, Boštjan Vasle, was January 8. It was never a secret that his term was to come to an end then, and Slovenia’s president naturally had a successor in mind.

However, that candidate’s failure to gain the necessary traction—in the context of difficult relations between the president and prime minister—led to a state of paralysis in this regard from which the country seems in no hurry to escape.

Nevertheless, on 23 May the president proposed a new candidate, Simon Savšek, head of the European Investment Bank Group’s Representation Office in Slovenia.

Savšek, who holds a PhD in economics and has worked as an economist both at Banka Slovenije and the ECB, quickly met with Slovenian parliamentarians, and there appears to be no significant public opposition to his candidacy.

That gives rise to the hope that the Slovenian seat at the Governing Council—empty lo these past six months already—will soon be occupied again. But the precise date remains, like much else, highly uncertain.

National Bank of Slovakia: Convicted of bribery following a lengthy legal process that raised broader concerns beyond the original charges, one would have expected the on-schedule departure of Governor Peter Kažimír on 1 June to be a no-brainer. Political deadlock has defied such expectations.

Despite many calls for his resignation even before the conviction on 29 May, Kažimír is still in office, benefitting from a national law that says that if the country’s two ruling parties cannot come to agreement about a successor—and so far they cannot—then he is legally permitted to remain in office until the impasse is resolved.

There is no word on when this might occur, suggesting that Kažimír may remain in office indefinitely—at least if he manages to avoid a prison term, which he has so far been able to do.

Banco de Portugal: As if reluctant to be outdone by other euro area member states that also can’t get their act together, Portugal’s government has taken a notably relaxed approach to naming a successor for current governor Mário Centeno.

Centeno’s term is up a mere two days from today, so the latest reports that Lisbon is on the verge of producing a name may have something to them. However, as we have reported already, there is reason for scepticism, and it may be that the dovish Centeno will even get the chance to back the September rate cut he desires.

Austrian National Bank: The contrast here with other countries could hardly be starker, Austria’s government having—somewhat controversially—made clear who Governor Robert Holzmann’s successor would be with more than a year to go until the end of his term.

Martin Kocher, until last March minister for economy and labour, will head Austria’s central bank from September 1.

Central Bank of Malta: The Maltese central bank has had an acting governor, Alexander Demarco, since its governor, Edward Scicluna, voluntarily ceased as of last 1 August to exercise office so that he could concentrate on defending himself against corruption charges.

Whatever the eventual outcome of his ongoing trial, given Scicluna’s age (79 in October), he is by a comfortable margin the oldest member of the Governing Council, so we would expect a new governor as of 1 January.

The circumspect and knowledgeable Demarco, whose career is deeply intertwined with the Maltese central bank, is an eminently plausible contender for the position.

Bulgarian National Bank: With Bulgaria’s adoption of the euro at the start of next year, Governor Dimitar Radev will get a seat at the ECB Governing Council’s table. Initial indications based on a recent Econostream interview suggest that Radev could prove to be a relatively hawkish addition to the Council.

While Centeno is a clear outlier, the current and expected changes to the Governing Council appear on balance to affect hawkish policymakers/national central banks disproportionately. With Knot already gone, Holzmann soon to follow, and the prospects of less outspoken successors elsewhere, the Council’s composition may be quietly shifting.

Whether this marks the beginning of a more dovish tilt in the ECB’s policy orientation remains an open question—but one that could gain relevance as rate-cutting debates intensify.

In the following we list the remaining 21 ECB Governing Council members by the date of their respective end of term:

2026

30 March 2026 - Gediminas Šimkus, chairman of the board of the Bank of Lithuania

31 May 2026 - Luis de Guindos, vice president of the ECB

26 June 2026 - Madis Müller, governor of Eesti Pank

26 June 2026 - Yannis Stournaras, governor of the Bank of Greece

31 August 2026 - Gabriel Makhlouf, governor of the Central Bank of Ireland

2027

31 May 2027 - Philip Lane, ECB Executive Board member

31 October 2027 - Christine Lagarde, president of the ECB

31 October 2027 – François Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the Banque de France

31 December 2027 - Isabel Schnabel, ECB Executive Board member

2028

14 December 2028 - Frank Elderson, ECB Executive Board member

31 December 2028 - Pierre Wunsch, governor of the National Bank of Belgium

2029

10 April 2029 - Christodoulos Patsalides, governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus

31 October 2029 - Fabio Panetta, governor of the Banca d’Italia

2030

5 February 2030 - Mārtiņš Kazāks, governor of Latvijas Banka

12 July 2030 - Boris Vujčić, governor of the Croatian National Bank

23 September 2030 – José Luis Escrivá, governor of the Banco de España

31 December 2030 – Gaston Reinesch, governor of the Central Bank of Luxembourg

31 December 2030 - Joachim Nagel, president of the German Bundesbank

2031

31 October 2031 – Piero Cipollone, ECB Executive Board member

2032

11 July 2032 – Olli Rehn, governor of the Bank of Finland

30 June 2032 – Olaf Sleijpen, governor of De Nederlandsche Bank