ECB’s de Guindos: Baseline Scenario Could Worsen

28 March 2025

By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Friday that the ECB’s baseline scenario could worsen as the situation gets more and more complicated.

In his online remarks at the VI Cumbre FEDEPE in Zaragoza, de Guindos said that risks to economic growth were to the downside.

‘We think the situation could get more complicated and the baseline scenario could worsen versus the one we are currently communicating’, he said.

The disinflation process was on track, he indicated, and the ECB was sure that the inflation target would be reached sustainably in the coming quarters.

Underlying inflation, corporate profits and productivity were some of the elements which indicated that the 2% target would be reached somewhere ‘between the short- and the medium-term’.

A trade war would have an initial upward effect on inflation but economic weakness would eventually offset this first inflationary impact, he said.

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