ECB: Consumer Expectations of Future Inflation Lowest Since September 2021

28 May 2024

By Aurėja Bobelytė – VILNIUS (Econostream) – The European Central Bank‘s latest consumer expectations survey, released Tuesday, showed inflation expectations 12 months ahead to be at their lowest level in April in almost three years.

‘Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months edged down to 2.9%, from 3.0% in March. They are now at their lowest level since September 2021. At the same time, median expectations for inflation three years ahead edged down to 2.4%, from 2.5% in March’, the ECB said.

Median consumer inflation perceptions over the previous 12 months were unchanged at 5%, the survey showed.

According to the report, consumers’ economic growth expectations over the next 12 months were less negative, at -0.8%, compared with -1.1% in March.

The survey showed that expectations for nominal income growth and nominal spending growth over the next 12 months remained unchanged.

Consumers expected the unemployment rate to be slightly higher at 10.9% 12 months ahead, compared to 10.7% in March, according to the survey.

‘Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.6%), implying a broadly stable labour market’, the ECB said.

The ECB reported that expectations of home prices increases over the next 12 months rose from 2.4% in March to 2.6% in April and continued to be higher among households in the lowest income quintile.

‘The net percentage of households reporting a tightening (relative to those reporting an easing) in the access to credit over the previous 12 months saw a further slight decline, as did the net percentage of those expecting a tightening over the next 12 months’, the report said.