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ECB Meeting Account Shows Council Members Hopeful But Wary

At the meeting, which took place January 22-23 and thus before the coronavirus outbreak captured international attention, there was no mention made of the disease and China’s role in the discussion was only in the context of the recent “phase-one” trade agreement between it and the U.S.

ECB’s de Guindos: Eurozone Still Needs Strong Monetary Policy Support

By David Barwick - FRANKFURT (EconoStream) - Economic uncertainty implies a continued need for strong monetary policy support in the Eurozone, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said Thursday.

ECB's Panetta: More Needs to be Done; Inflation Still Below Goal

By David Barwick - BRUSSELS (EconoStream) – With inflation still too low and growth only moderate, the Eurozone continues to need monetary policy support, European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said Tuesday.

Hawk / Dove Cheat Sheet

EconoStream's subjective views on the hawks and doves at the European Central Bank (ECB), the US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Bank of England (BoE) and a recap on the current and future voting members.  We get asked all the time questions like "is the Fed's Rosengren a hawk or a dove?", "who are the doves on the ECB?" and "are the voters on the FOMC this year more dovish or hawkish?".  Here we answer all these questions.

ECB Market View? Back to Cutting?

11th February 2020

Sources: GPIF Buys USDJPY & Short-End USTs Over Y108, Sells Both at Y110

6th February 2020 Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund — the world’s largest pension fund — buys the US dollar/ yen (buy US$/sell yen) and then use those proceeds to buys short-end US Treasuries on an unhedged basis, when the US$/yen is about Y108,...

FOMC Market View? Virus Risks Subside to Reduce Easing Expectations

Risk off mentality in the markets reached a recent peak on Friday with focus in particular on risks around the further spread of Coronavirus.  At the close of Friday, OIS markets were predicting 2 full 25bp FOMC interest rate cuts over the next year (see below for a full explanation of what this means).

Bank of England Market View? Market Expects Less Dovish MPC

The market retains a dovish bias to its expectations – the next move is expected to be a cut rather than a hike, but now the market sees limited chance of a cut at the March meeting, is 50/50 for a cut at the next Monetary Policy Report meeting in May while just 26bp of cuts are priced in by year end – 7bp less than was the case earlier this week.

Gilts Slammed After Bank of England Meeting

31st  January 2020 Gilts were slammed by the BoE meeting, which turned out to be a modestly hawkish-hold. Vote was 7-2 to keep stable. Bank spoke of rebound in global growth and bounce in the UK. The next cut is now only fully priced for December...

FOMC Market View? Higher Chance of Cuts After January Meeting

The January FOMC meeting played out largely as-expected with the target range unchanged but the Reverse Repo Rate (RRP) & Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER) adjusted higher by +5bps.  Market reaction saw yields slide further across the curve...

BoE January Preview: Everyone agrees, very close call on rates

29th January 2020 Thursday, January 30th: Policy Decision & MPR release: 12:00 GMT; Press conference 12:30 GMT Current Policy: Bank Rate: 0.75%; Asset Purchase Programme: £435bn; Corp Bond Purchases: up to £10bn In Brief:

• Analysts

FOMC Meeting Preview and Street Views – Policy remains in a ‘good place’ though an IOER ‘tweak’ may be in store

28th January 2020 FOMC: At 14:00NY/18:00LDN – Rate decision and statement release. No updated SEPs or ‘dots’. Chair Powell’s press conference will begin at 14:30EST/19:30GMT. In Brief -target range to be left unchanged at 1.50-1.75 in a unanimous decision...

ECB January Meeting Preview: No Fireworks; Strategic Review

21st January 2020 Policy Announcement: Thursday Jan 23^rd, 12:45 BST / 07:45 ET;  Press Conf: 13:30 BST / 08:30 ET Current Rates: Deposit -0.50%, Main Refinancing 0.00%, Marginal Lending Facility 0.25%. In Brief:

• Analysts unanimously expect no change

Beckner: Beige Book Highlights Inflationary Straws in the Wind

30^th May 2018 By Steven K. Beckner Unmistakable, albeit anecdotal, signs of intensifying wage-price pressures are on display in the Fed's "beige book" survey of conditions in its 12 districts through May 21. The findings, summarized by the Cleveland...

Beckner: Beige Book Highlights Inflationary Straws in the Wind

By Steven K. Beckner Unmistakable, albeit anecdotal, signs of intensifying wage-price pressures are on display in the Fed's "beige book" survey of conditions in its 12 districts through May 21. The findings, summarized by the Cleveland Federal Reserve...

Beckner: Global Downside Risks Could Alter Fed Policy If They Intensify

29^th May 2018 By Steven K. Beckner The Federal Reserve primarily pursues a domestic mandate of maximum employment and price stability, and its policymaking Federal Open Market Committee has been projecting at least three federal funds rate hikes this...

Beckner: FOMC Minutes Imply June Hike; OK If Inflation Overshoots

- Hint At Coming Communication Changes 23^rd May 2018 By Steven K. Beckner The long-awaited arrival of 2% inflation cheered Federal Reserve policymakers at their May 1-2 Federal Open Market Committee meeting and confirmed their inclination to raise...

Beckner: Clarida Vows 'Balanced Approach' To Rate Normalization

15^th May 2018 By Steven K. Beckner Nothing terribly revealing emerged from Tuesday's confirmation hearing for two of President Trump's nominees to fill seats on the short-handed Federal Reserve Board. Richard Clarida, nominated to succeed Stanley...

Beckner: "Comfortable" Bostic, Others Show Rate Hike Flexibility

7^th May 2018   By Steven K. Beckner AMELIA ISLAND, FLA. - Though the Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds rate unchanged last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's policymaking body signalled it will raise rates further this year,...

Beckner: With Inflation at 2%, FOMC Sets Stage for Higher Rates

2^nd May 2018 The Federal Reserve could have given a blunter signal that it will raise interest rates next month, but its rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee clearly, if subtly, opened the door to a June rate hike as it concluded two days of meetings...