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Exclusive: ECB Insider: Plan Now Is to Hike at Least Three Times in a Row by 50bp

Exclusive: ECB Insider: Plan Now Is to Hike at Least Three Times in a Row by 50bp

- ECB insider: Very clear that we’re going to hike by 50bp in February
- ECB insider: Wouldn’t be surprised if someone questions need for 50bp in March
- ECB insider: Policy will be restrictive as of February rate hike
- ECB insider: Terminal rate has now risen
- ECB insider: December Governing Council decision could have gone either way, 50bp or 75bp
- ECB insider: QT’s impact on monetary policy tightening is ‘minimal’
- ECB insider: QT complements rate hikes, not a substitute for them
- ECB insider: ECB staff probably assumes no need for more big revisions in next projection exercise
- ECB insider: See upside risks to 2025 inflation, especially to core

16 December 2022 Central Bank News
Seeking Compromise on a Rate Hike, But Can Progress on QT Help the ECB Get There?

Seeking Compromise on a Rate Hike, But Can Progress on QT Help the ECB Get There?

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Econostream continues to expect the outcome of this week’s European Central Bank Governing Council meeting to be a 50bp rate hike, a view we’ve held more or less since 28 October, when President Christine Lagarde clearly set the stage for a deceleration of the tightening pace.

13 December 2022 Central Bank News
ECB Insight: Lane Retreats to Safer Ground on Question of December Rate Hike Size

ECB Insight: Lane Retreats to Safer Ground on Question of December Rate Hike Size

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Strictly speaking, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane cannot be said to have walked back his previous interview in the one published on Tuesday. But what might appear at first glance to have been doubling down was in fact decidedly more cautious in tone and scope than last month.

6 December 2022 Central Bank News
ECB’s Villeroy Backs December Rate Hike of 50BP

ECB’s Villeroy Backs December Rate Hike of 50BP

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau on Sunday suggested that he would favour a December rate hike by the ECB of 50bp.

4 December 2022 Central Bank News