By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Two days ago, we argued here that it seemed pointless to debate whether the European Central Bank’s communication has been setting the stage for what some call a pivot, so obvious has it been.
11 November 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Whether or not the European Central Bank executes a monetary policy pivot as early as December, it seems hardly a matter of debate that its communication has already been laying the groundwork for one to come sooner or later.
9 November 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday repeated with no obviously significant deviation the main messages of last Thursday’s post-Council meeting press conference, promising despite risen recessionary risks further rate hikes based on a meeting-by-meeting approach.
1 November 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Just days after the European Central Bank Governing Council decided to hike interest rates by a whopping 75bp for the second time in a row, one of its leading hawks, Klaas Knot, has positioned himself as leaning in the direction of a third such outsize step. He may be getting ahead of himself.
31 October 2022
By David Barwick – ATHENS (Econostream) – Greek banks faces no particular threat of a substantial outflow of deposits and are expected to eventually pass along to their depositors the interest rate hikes of the European Central Bank, a high-level Greek official assured Econostream.
31 October 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Just as it surprised on the hawkish side in July, the European Central Bank’s normalisation of policy may eventually include a surprise on the dovish side. While we rate the chances of this in October a tad higher than most observers seem to, we don’t think it will occur now.
25 October 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Comments by European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel published on Thursday appear to increase the likelihood that the ECB will opt for another 75bp hike next month, which would make for its second outsize rate step in a row.
22 September 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Along with financial markets and most analysts, Econostream considers the somewhat likelier outcome of this week’s European Central Bank monetary policy meeting to be a hike of 75bp.
6 September 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Much like we did six weeks ago in the context of a potential 50-basis-point rate hike, we again consider the European Central Bank Governing Council member by member, this time with respect to the feasibility of a 75-basis-point hike at Thursday’s meeting.
5 September 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As the Eurozone’s economic weakening becomes more apparent, the question of whether or indeed when the ship of monetary policy normalisation might start running out of steam becomes more pressing.
29 July 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank on Thursday may have over-delivered with respect to its new anti-fragmentation instrument, even discounting somewhat low expectations, while on the interest rate front we see it as an open question whether it is in the process of over-delivering or has merely frontloaded what the Governing Council intended anyway.
21 July 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Considering the European Central Bank Governing Council member by member with respect to the feasibility of a 50-basis-point hike this week, our conclusion is that there are three main scenarios under which the ECB sticks to 25.
20 July 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Perhaps the less edge-of-the-seat issue to be decided by this week’s European Central Bank monetary policy meeting, most seem to think, is the size of the first ECB rate hike in a decade, with 25 basis points widely seen as approaching but not quite reaching a certain inevitability.
19 July 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Striking though the euro’s latest descent on foreign exchange markets may be, with the common currency now having reached parity with the dollar, a review of European Central Bank insider comments in recent months leaves us sceptical that the latest developments will induce the ECB to take any steps it cannot clearly justify on the basis of inflation.
14 July 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Of the various members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council to have spoken out over the last few days, it may be that Central Bank of Cyprus Governor Constantinos Herodotou made the most meaningful contribution to the public discourse about monetary policy normalisation.
11 July 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – It is very clear that the European Central Bank has its work cut out for it in attempting to come up with an anti-fragmentation tool, Econostream can only conclude after having recently heard opinions on the subject from three more ECB insiders who all seemed keen that such an instrument be designed and deployed conservatively.
7 July 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Consistent with her speech the day before, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday took the opportunity of the policy panel discussion at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2022 to make clear again that the mantra of gradualism to which she had been so attached until recently is in the process of falling out of favour.
29 June 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The statement from the European Central Bank after Wednesday’s ad hoc meeting of the Governing Council suggests an enduring reluctance on the part of monetary authorities to tackle the creation of a new anti-fragmentation instrument.
15 June 2022
By David Barwick – PARIS (Econostream) – As determined as European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel is to prevent fragmentation from derailing the ECB’s incipient policy normalisation, it is considerably more questionable whether her verbal intervention on Tuesday evening will achieve the desired effect on any sustained basis.
15 June 2022