ECB Insight: Villeroy Offers Latest Confirmation That Delta Variant Not the Biggest Deal
- Resilience to variant bolsters perception that emergency phase of pandemic petering out
27 August 2021
Exclusive News
Exclusive: Econostream Understands Even October Could Still Be Seen as Premature at ECB
- PEPP end next March no foregone conclusion, but not yet close to needing to decide
- Governing Council could devote several meetings to discussing what to do about asset purchases
- Financing conditions seen to allow potential modest reduction in 4Q PEPP purchase pace
- Delta variant significance downplayed despite additional uncertainty
ECB Insight: New Forward Guidance Relies on Elusiveness of Underlying Inflation
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Although the European Central Bank’s strategy review may have led to an inflation target that is clearer than its predecessor, it appears to be relying on a lack of clarity about another concept, namely underlying inflation.
20 August 2021
ECB Insight: Opposition to New Forward Guidance Leaves More Questions Than Answers
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Almost a month after the European Central Bank revised its forward guidance on interest rates to reflect its new strategy framework, the nature of the opposition of a small minority of monetary policymakers remains somewhat unclear, with the majority clearly united behind the idea that guidance must defer to reality over time.
19 August 2021
Exclusive: Econostream Understands September ECB Meeting Outcome Could Be More Wait-And-See
- ECB to set Q4 PEPP pace, but major announcements on future of QE less likely
- Council can start discussions, but these to continue in the autumn
- Major decisions in September would be seen as rushing things unnecessarily
- August holidays leave little time to lay groundwork; uncertainty still elevated
- Neither cliff effects nor new forecasts seen forcing major decisions in September
TRANSCRIPT: Interview with UK DMO CEO Sir Robert Stheeman on 27 July 2021
Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on July 27 with Sir Robert Stheeman, Chief Executive Officer of the UK Debt Management Office.
9 August 2021
EXCLUSIVE: UK DMO’s Stheeman: Prefer a Gradual Approach to Any Curve Extension
- ‘Have begun to detect some market interest in a curve extension’
- But any curve extension ‘very much incremental only’
- ‘Might well be’ worth issuing new ultra-long-end linker this year, but must listen to market
ECB Insight: Must PEPP Ever Really End? De Guindos Might Make One Wonder…
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Whether the European Central Bank’s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) ever really needs to end could theoretically be an open question, based on ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos’ latest comments on the subject.
30 July 2021
ECB Insight: Panetta’s Flirt With Deliberate Overshooting May Further Hinder Consensus
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta may have crossed a line on Thursday by appearing to advocate wilful overshooting of the ECB’s inflation target.
29 July 2021
TRANSCRIPT: Interview with ECB Governing Council member Kazāks on 28 July 2021
Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on July 28 with Mārtiņš Kazāks, Governor of Latvijas Banka and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank.
29 July 2021
EXCLUSIVE: ECB’s Kazāks: If Economy Surprises to the Upside, We’ll Move Faster Than Now Foreseen
- ‘What we have learned from the past is that we should not make the mistake of premature tightening’
- On inflation, ‘I would be somewhat more optimistic towards the end of the forecast horizon’
- New forward guidance has ‘provided more clarity, but without tying our hands’
TRANSCRIPT: Interview with ECB Governing Council member Šimkus on 27 July 2021
Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on July 27 with Gediminas Šimkus, Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank.
28 July 2021
EXCLUSIVE: ECB’s Šimkus: PEPP Flexibility Doesn’t Mean Another Programme Must Also Be Flexible
- What’s important is ‘Eurosystem is ready and can act forcefully to address fragmentation when it’s needed’
- Will certainly discuss asset purchases in the Council later this year when we debate about the PEPP
- Moderately and transitory ‘not about the number at a given moment; it’s about the intention’
ECB Insight: New Strategy to Give Doves Some Breathing Room on Thursday
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Thursday’s meeting of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council will be a matter more than anything else of taking a first and important stab at the question of how the new strategy is to shape monetary policy. The answer is less likely to please the hawks, but the doves should take care not to overplay their hand.
20 July 2021
ECB Insight: Kazimir, Vasle Unlikely to Close Ranks With the Hawks Next Week
By David Barwick – LJUBLJANA (Econostream) – If the going gets tough for the hawks at the European Central Bank Governing Council’s monetary policy meeting next week, their Slovakian and Slovenian colleagues seem unlikely to come to the rescue.
16 July 2021
ECB Insight: Visco Still Fighting the Same Battle, Just a Bit Better Equipped
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member and Banca d’Italia Governor Ignazio Visco on Thursday shared his interpretation of the outcome of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy review, an interpretation naturally favouring monetary accommodation but otherwise thoroughly redolent of his traditional diagnoses and prescriptions.
15 July 2021
ECB Insight: Lagarde Abandons Pretence of Big Happy Family
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Although both public comments by European Central Bank Governing Council members and the published accounts of their monetary policy meetings had pointed in the last months to a widening rift, ECB President Christine Lagarde has tended to gloss over any discord – until now.
13 July 2021
ECB Insight: Lagarde Prepares to Make the Most of the New Policy Framework
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – That the outcome of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy strategy review was a boon to the doves on the Governing Council is clear; comments by ECB President Christine Lagarde over the weekend suggest that the doves could be keen to put their advantage to use at the next opportunity.
12 July 2021
ECB Insight: Meeting Account Reveals Widening Differences on Governing Council
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The account released Friday of the June 9-10 monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council showcased opinions that differed more starkly than at any other recent such gathering, setting the stage for a potentially strident reunion at the next such occasion in ten days.
12 July 2021
ECB Insight: Schnabel Comments Support Expectation That ECB Won’t Rush to Exit
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel’s comments over the weekend lend credence to the expectation that the ECB will not step on the brakes too quickly even when inflation shows clear signs of revival.
12 July 2021