By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Wide-ranging as it was, the interview by CNBC with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde published Friday yielded less news than might be expected, not because Lagarde was not asked important questions, but rather because she appeared determined to stick to safe ground and avoid further fueling public debate.
24 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Madis Müller on Wednesday became the latest monetary policymaker to paint a picture of the euro area economy that would be consistent with a withdrawal of support, a conclusion he was not hesitant to reach.
22 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Vice President Luis de Guindos on Tuesday ratcheted up the hawkishness, sounding almost but not quite alarmed about the potential for price pressures to remain elevated and declaring economic risks that had loomed large earlier in the crisis to be essentially null and void.
21 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras on Monday provided a glimpse into the nature of the tussle awaiting the euro area’s monetary authorities, lining up with numerous colleagues who’ve already conceded brighter inflation prospects, yet remaining as unwilling as ever to take the logical next step towards reduced accommodation.
21 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Officials of the European Central Bank have been all but lining up in recent days to sound the alarm with respect to the potential for euro area inflation to come back to life sooner and more vigorously than expected.
20 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – A close look at the interview published Sunday with European Central Bank Governing Council member Pablo Hernández de Cos reveals him to be slowly taking on board at least some of the optimism finally infecting the less hawkish side of the Council. By no means has he undergone a full-bore conversion.
20 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank has essentially stumbled headlong into a pitfall of its own making after information regarding the institution’s expectations of future inflation was apparently shared by Chief Economist Philip Lane with private bankers.
17 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde having made clear last Thursday that the Governing Council would defer major decisions until December, the question of which members are formally entitled to vote at that meeting may be of particular interest.
15 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel on Monday combined strong rhetoric from both sides of the hawk-dove spectrum of the ECB’s Governing Council as she once again, though in more forceful terms, put on notice those anticipating persistently weak inflation.
13 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As suggested in this space some weeks ago, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday deferred to December major pending decisions of the ECB Governing Council.
9 September 2021
- Public and private comments reveal range of hard-to-reconcile views
- Official to Econostream: shifting PEPP flexibility to APP ‘wouldn’t be easy, for sure’
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – For the first time in a long time, Thursday’s monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is an occasion on which the hawkish point of view stands a decent chance of prevailing.
7 September 2021
- Public and private comments suggest upside revisions likely, though magnitude unclear
- Official to Econostream: 2023 inflation projection ‘needs to be significantly higher’
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – This is an overview of policy-relevant comments made in the last two weeks by European Central Bank Governing Council members, in particular such comments as may indicate how the speaker would regard a reduction in 4Q of the volume of pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) purchases:
2 September 2021
- President Lagarde Too Suggests Crisis Phase Ending, So 'No Longer a Question of Massive Support'
1 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With just days to go until the members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council will presumably start observing the quiet period ahead of monetary policy meetings, Council member François Villeroy de Galhau has apparently confirmed that observers should not expect much from the September 9 gathering except, as he strongly hinted, a slowdown in the monthly asset purchase pace.
31 August 2021
- Resilience to variant bolsters perception that emergency phase of pandemic petering out
27 August 2021
- PEPP end next March no foregone conclusion, but not yet close to needing to decide
- Governing Council could devote several meetings to discussing what to do about asset purchases
- Financing conditions seen to allow potential modest reduction in 4Q PEPP purchase pace
- Delta variant significance downplayed despite additional uncertainty
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Although the European Central Bank’s strategy review may have led to an inflation target that is clearer than its predecessor, it appears to be relying on a lack of clarity about another concept, namely underlying inflation.
20 August 2021