- Austria plans ‘to tap 2049 green bond by €1bn via auction or syndication’
- Austria ‘will continue decreasing the maturity of our new issuance’
- Green CP programme demand split 50/50 USD and euro, 1m to 3m maturity
- Reintroduction of ECB ceiling has ‘no significant implications’ for Austria’
- April syndication order book saw lot of real money investors, fewer fast money accounts
- ECB insider: Won’t be surprised if we hike by 25bp, but wouldn’t exclude another outcome
- ECB insider: Risk of doing too little currently still greater than the risk of doing too much
- ECB insider: Would require a ‘quite negative’ April inflation surprise for me to support 50bp
By David Barwick – WASHINGTON (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 15 April 2023 with Pierre Wunsch, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank.
19 April 2023
By David Barwick – WASHINGTON (Econostream) – The turmoil that hit banking sectors in various global jurisdictions last month will not necessarily have any significant bearing on the monetary policy decision to be made by the European Central Bank in two weeks, according to ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch.
19 April 2023
By David Barwick – VILNIUS (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 05 April 2023 with Gediminas Šimkus, Governor of the Bank of Lithuania and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank.
6 April 2023
- Šimkus: Active asset sales ‘could be an option some day in the future’, but not for July
- Šimkus: ‘Let’s deal with the APP and then come back to the PEPP’
- Šimkus: ‘I don’t see a pause in hiking rates in May as a likely scenario’
- Šimkus: Size of rate moves ‘will depend on the data, but we still have some way to go’
- Šimkus: ‘We still need to let the impact of past policy moves kick in’
- Šimkus: ‘Need to maintain the restrictive stance for quite some time’
- Šimkus: ‘Very unlikely that we will see any decrease in interest rates this year’
- Šimkus: OPEC oil production cut a ‘one-off factor’; no need to ‘overreact or exaggerate’
- Šimkus: Core inflation to ‘remain pretty high’ throughout 2023
- Šimkus: Core inflation ‘stickier than many people think’
- Diemer: Don't have to make changes to auction calendar just because energy prices lower
- Diemer: Inversion of German yield curve has no impact on our issuance activities
- Diemer: Want to be a predictable issuer and want to be an issuer that focuses on auctions
- Diemer: Will do whatever is needed and in our hands to support functioning of Bund market
- Diemer: Need to create additional incentives to attract new investors to green segment
- Scicluna: Ramifications of bank turmoil to be felt for some time, also in Europe
- Scicluna: ‘We strongly believe in the robustness and resilience of our system’
- Scicluna: If we don’t see core inflation peaking, then our job is to continue attacking inflation
- Scicluna: Would be presumptuous for me to say now that I’ll want 50bp in May; must see data
- Scicluna: ‘Nowhere near’ the wage-price spiral we’ve had in the past
- Scicluna: Updated forecasts appeared to us to be out of date the same day
- Scicluna: If core inflation rises, then those who are for tightening will get the upper hand
- Scicluna: ‘Wouldn’t be highly concerned with the results we’re getting from wage settlements so far’
- Scicluna: ‘No indications that we’re seeing’ the light at the end of the inflation tunnel
- Scicluna: Mopping up liquidity is another way to subdue inflation
- Scicluna: Last week’s decision gives sense of stability; you don’t create more stability by hesitating
- ECB insider: ‘No doubt that we are still in a tightening mode’
- ECB insider: No hurry to decide on next move, can wait until the time comes
- ECB insider: 50bp hike not much when real interest rates clearly negative
- ECB insider: 4.5% terminal rate only if inflation turns out unexpectedly persistent
- ECB insider: Reducing pace of hiking post-March to 25bp the correct strategy
- ECB insider: Others will oppose post-March slowdown of tightening pace
- ECB insider: ‘Very little discussion that we are now in restrictive territory’
- ECB insider: Some Council members will see the ECB as no longer very far from the terminal rate
- ECB insider: Core inflation to remain relatively high and away from our target this year
- ECB insider: Some concerns that wage demands could pick up quickly in 1H
- ECB insider: Increasing trend of firms protecting their margins contributing to price pressures
- ECB insider: Hawks ‘not very comforted’ by assurances of lower medium-term price pressures
- ECB insider: Some hawks question medium-term inflation outlook due to 2d-rd effects, energy prices
- ECB insider: Updated forecasts will maintain view of more persistent inflation dynamics
- ECB insider: Don’t expect any material change in core inflation dynamics in 2023
- ECB insider: Not seeing much inflation from the end of China’s zero-Covid policy
- KfW: Cost benefits of issuing US dollar bonds ‘not that obvious anymore’
- KfW: Optimistic that in Q2, ‘we'll find a good window’ to issue US dollar-denominated bonds
- KfW: Aim to reach average maturity of five to six years; don't plan many long-term fundings
- Centeno: When we stop hiking, we’ll be confident we’ve done enough for price stability
- Centeno: Don’t see upside risks to inflation, given December forecast revisions
- Centeno: ‘Inflation is going down faster than what we expected in December’
- Centeno: Somewhat uneasy about how fast ECB policy tightening has occurred
- Centeno: Observed euro area average wage increase can’t be considered 2d-round effect
- Kazāks: ‘Getting to 3% in March is a good choice that … will take us into restrictive territory’
- Kazāks: ‘Rates will need to go up at further meetings’ even after March; 'we are on a solid path of rate increases'
- Kazāks: ‘At some point we’ll reduce our speed’, but ‘by no means’ in March
- Kazāks: Hiking more than 50bp in March ‘would be reckless’, not needed in view of previous steps
- Kazāks: Too early to say how big May rate hike should be
- Kazāks: ‘Quite likely that there’s not going to be a recession at all’
- Kazāks: Once at terminal, expect to ‘stay there for an extended period’; rate cut in 2023 would be 'way too premature'
- Kazāks: ‘Terminal rate is by no means 3%, that has to be clear’, but ‘I also don’t think we will go as high as the US’
- Kazāks: Baseline would be ‘more benign inflation projections in March, but there are risks on both sides’
- Poland DMO head: International markets ‘not critical source of funding’ for Poland
- Poland DMO head: See ‘clear need’ to be present in Japan
- Poland DMO head: Resolution of EU funds dispute would be desirable for debt management
- Poland DMO head: Negative CJEU outcome could be ‘black swan’ for Polish bonds
- ECB insider: Easier to hike interest rates when labour markets are holding up well
12 January 2023
- Slovenia DMO head: 2023 syndications better done sooner rather than later
- Slovenia DMO head: ‘Contemplating a return to the US dollar market’ this year
- Slovenia DMO head: Increase in Slovenian budget deficit shouldn’t make life difficult
- Slovenia DMO head: Unlikely to revisit ultra-long end of yield curve for now
- Slovenia DMO head: Braced for ECB active bond sales
- ECB insider: No insistence on QT sequence with respect to TLTRO repayments or rate hikes
- ECB insider: Average €15 billion a month of QT ‘a very good start’
- ECB insider: ‘Most likely’ that all maturing bonds will be treated equally
- ECB insider: In terms of QT, ‘we have not done anything that markets were not expecting’
- ECB insider: Very clear that we’re going to hike by 50bp in February
- ECB insider: Wouldn’t be surprised if someone questions need for 50bp in March
- ECB insider: Policy will be restrictive as of February rate hike
- ECB insider: Terminal rate has now risen
- ECB insider: December Governing Council decision could have gone either way, 50bp or 75bp
- ECB insider: QT’s impact on monetary policy tightening is ‘minimal’
- ECB insider: QT complements rate hikes, not a substitute for them
- ECB insider: ECB staff probably assumes no need for more big revisions in next projection exercise
- ECB insider: See upside risks to 2025 inflation, especially to core