Central Bank

ECB Insight: Lagarde Waiting to See What Next Week Brings

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Friday declined to speculate as to the ultimate economic impact on the euro area of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s aggression against Ukraine (transcript of her remarks here ), but noted that there would be opposing effects while also suggesting that price and financial stability would ultimately decide the course of monetary policy.

25 February 2022

TRANSCRIPT: ECB President Lagarde Press Conference During Informal Ecofin

By David Barwick – PARIS (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the most relevant comments made by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde at the press conference during the Informal Ecofin on Friday:

25 February 2022

ECB Insight: Holzmann Unlikely to Have Been Urging a Fundamental Deceleration

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – That geopolitical turmoil without precedent in Europe in the last 75 years should lead the European Central Bank to tread with heightened caution is entirely understandable, and it would be more than odd if it didn’t. We think this truism is essentially what Governing Council member Robert Holzmann had in mind on Thursday.

25 February 2022

ECB Insight: Stournaras Comments Indicate Russian Aggression Seen by Doves as Grounds to Slow Normalisation

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – It was never likely to take long for those European Central Bank Governing Council members fundamentally disinclined to tighten monetary policy to hang their hat on what until late yesterday was still just a looming invasion of Ukraine by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.

24 February 2022

ECB Insight: Lane Sees Price Stability Just Over the Horizon, Once High Inflation Fades Away

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council Philip Lane on Wednesday sounded at pains to meet the hawks part way while implicitly rejecting the more alarmist views about price pressures as he conveyed his main message: that high inflation would ultimately give way to price stability.

24 February 2022

ECB’s Centeno: Strong Reasons for Keeping a Steady Monetary Policy Hand

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – There are good reasons for monetary policy to remain steady, European Central Bank Governing Council member Mario Centeno said Thursday.

24 February 2022

ECB’s Villeroy: Optionality and Flexibility More Essential Than Ever

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau on Wednesday said that the geopolitical situation made optionality and flexibility more important than ever for monetary policy.

23 February 2022

ECB Insight: Holzmann Insights Interesting But Hardly a Game-Changer

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann supports tightening monetary policy, and essentially made this clear again on Wednesday for anyone who has been under a rock lately; the details are naturally interesting but the overall picture hardly changes as a result.

23 February 2022

ECB’s Villeroy: No Need to Set Lift-Off Date; Asset Purchases Could End Around 3Q

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau on Tuesday said that there was no need to decide when interest rates in the euro area should start rising, but advocated stopping asset purchases around 3Q.

22 February 2022

ECB Insight: Governing Council Still Split on Timing of a Lift-Off, But Momentum up for 2022

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Having done a first review last week of European Central Bank Governing Council members’ individual inclination to initiate a hiking cycle this year, we now repeat the exercise in light of relevant comments made since then.

22 February 2022

They Said it - Recent Monetary Policy Comments Made by ECB Governing Council Members

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is a reasonably complete compendium of the most recent comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members with respect to monetary policy. Updates are made on a periodic basis.

21 February 2022

German Bundesbank Sees Conditions for ‘Noticeably Stronger Wage Agreements’

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Positive macroeconomic developments and elevated inflation could lead to relatively robust outcomes of wage negotiations this year, the German Bundesbank indicated on Monday in its latest monthly report.

21 February 2022

ECB’s Panetta: Need CBDCs to Preserve Monetary Sovereignty

By David Barwick – NEW YORK (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta on Friday said that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) were needed not only for central bank money to continue to serve as a standard means of payment, but also to preserve monetary sovereignty.

18 February 2022

ECB: Impact on HICP of Owner-Occupied Housing Not Great; Maximum 0.3 Point Since 2011

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The impact of including owner-occupied housing (OOH) in Eurozone harmonised inflation has never been greater than 0.3 point in the last decade, the European Central Bank said on Wednesday.

16 February 2022

ECB’s Herodotou: Need to See Mid-Term Inflation Outlook and Wages Versus Productivity

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Constantinos Herodotou on Wednesday sounded in no hurry for the ECB to initiate a tightening cycle and put the burden of any policy change on the upcoming set of staff macroeconomic forecasts.

16 February 2022

ECB Insight: Villeroy Squares the Forward Guidance Circle

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau on Tuesday sought to avoid throwing out the baby with the bathwater, preserving some semblance of forward guidance for ECB policy while acknowledging room for improvement.

16 February 2022

ECB Insight: Schnabel Upgrades the Risk Outlook, Advocates Being Pre-Emptive

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel’s latest comments suggest that the ECB has become more serious yet about heading inflation risks off at the pass and raise the stakes for the March Governing Council meeting.

16 February 2022

ECB’s Kazāks: Quite Likely That a Rate Hike Happens This Year

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – A lift-off of official euro area borrowing costs is quite probable this year, European Central Bank Governing Council member Mārtiņš Kazāks said Wednesday.

16 February 2022

ECB: NGEU to Make Significant Positive Contribution to Eurozone Economic Recovery

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The Next Generation EU (NGEU) investment and reform programme is likely to make a significant positive contribution to the euro area’s rebound from the crisis, the European Central Bank said on Tuesday.

15 February 2022

ECB Insight: Lagarde Sticks to Last Week’s Text, No New Ground During Q&A

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As in her appearance at a hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament exactly one week ago, Lagarde on Monday made prepared remarks with the same more dovish tone than at the press conference on February 3, but went strictly no further.

14 February 2022