Exclusive: 50-bp Rate Hike Not ECB Baseline for Now, But Council Will Have to Discuss
- ECB insider: Some hawks will push for 50-bp hike to get away from negative rates
- ECB insider: Expect spread between DFR and MRO to be narrowed during normalisation
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Professional forecasters now expect inflation this year and next to be higher than they anticipated three months ago, but are sticking to their previous prediction regarding medium-term HICP, the European Central Bank said on Friday.
15 April 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday took care not to show much bias in any direction, but as in March, the message came though nonetheless that Russia’s campaign of aggression against Ukraine was not standing in the way of the ECB's monetary policy normalisation.
14 April 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – If Russia’s unjustified war of aggression against Ukraine were to come to an end soon, Europe would breathe a collective sigh of relief at the halting of bloodshed, but European central bankers would not necessarily see a major impact on monetary policy, Econostream understands.
14 April 2022
Exclusive: ECB Anti-Spreads Programme to Face Bumpy Path, Econostream Understands
- ECB insider: Permanent mechanism would call EMU’s institutional set-up into question
- ECB insider: Permanent, unconditional facility would amount to transfer union via backdoor
- ECB insider: Facility limited to targeting temporary crisis situations more likely outcome
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The April monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is set to be the scene of particularly interesting deliberations to which the subsequent communication by ECB President Christine Lagarde may not live up, given the likely absence of any major decisions and a clear preference for leaving options open.
12 April 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is a reasonably complete compendium of the most recent comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members with respect to monetary policy. Updates are made on a periodic basis.
11 April 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As if to counter the growing perception that tighter European Central Bank monetary policy has become a juggernaut, three Governing Council members on Friday bent the rules of the ECB’s so-called quiet period somewhat in a demonstration of unified reluctance to endorse the dominant trend.
8 April 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Constantinos Herodotou on Friday said that inflation in excess of 2% was not per se grounds to hike official borrowing costs.
8 April 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf on Friday said that it was extremely unclear what and when the ECB needed to take monetary policy steps.
8 April 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank will do whatever is needed to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched, ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said Friday.
8 April 2022
Exclusive: ECB’s Net Asset Purchases Most Likely to End in July, Official Says
- Official: optionality of September rate hike still open; decision in June at the latest
- Official: inflation showing up in wages is still ‘the missing link at the moment’
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Savers may benefit before long from increased interest rates, European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said late Wednesday.
6 April 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta on Wednesday recited his most current litany of reasons why monetary policy tightening shouldn’t be necessary, but his opposition seemed to have weakened and his previous downplaying of high inflation to have given way to a less categorical view.
6 April 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Wage developments in line with inflation or without regard to productivity would exacerbate the danger of a wage-price spiral, according to the Central Bank of Ireland on Wednesday.
6 April 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos on Wednesday said that Russian military aggression against Ukraine had not materially affected euro area financial stability.
6 April 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Philip Lane on Tuesday ventured an initial guess as to when euro area inflation would cease to mount.
5 April 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Almost two weeks after our last review of where each European Central Bank Governing Council member stands on rates lift-off in the current year, we take another look to see whether our informal impression that support for this has been growing stands up to inspection. It does.
5 April 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is a reasonably complete compendium of the most recent comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members with respect to monetary policy. Updates are made on a periodic basis.
4 April 2022
Exclusive: ECB Touts ‘Gradualism’ to Keep Markets Calm, But Data Will Set the Pace, Econostream Understands
- Official: Some countries still extremely fragile with respect to financial market conditions
- Official: Gradualism needed to make sure that we don’t see market overreaction coming