Central Bank

ECB Insight: Growing Dissension, SVB Fallout Make Retreat to Data-Dependence More Attractive

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – In considering what this week’s meeting of the European Central Bank Governing Council will bring, we start from the observations that a 50bp hike this week across the board is probably a given despite the Silicon Valley Bank insolvency, putting the spotlight on the post-March policy outlook, and that the Council is showing signs of increasing polarisation.

15 March 2023

Sharp Market Rates Repricing Could Leave Thursday’s ECB Projections Looking Outdated

By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Markets’ sudden slashing of their expectations of the European Central Bank’s terminal rate by over 75bp in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank insolvency could have significant implications for the ECB’s macroeconomic projections, due to be released on Thursday.

14 March 2023

They Said It About Monetary Policy - Recent Comments of ECB Governing Council Members

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is a compendium of comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members related to ECB monetary policy. We include only comments made since the Governing Council meeting of February 2.

10 March 2023

ECB’s Vujčić: ‘Risk of a Recession Is Now Much, Much Lower’

By David Barwick – GENEVA (Econostream) – The likelihood of a euro area economic downturn is far lower now than it appeared to be a few months ago, European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujčić said Thursday.

9 March 2023

ECB’s Villeroy Sees Inflation Peaking in 1H 2023 and Halving by Year-End

By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday that inflation was approaching its peak in the first half of this year.

9 March 2023

ECB’s Lagarde Promises To Do ‘Whatever It Takes’ To Fight Inflation

By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday that the ECB would do whatever it takes to bring inflation down from its currently high levels.

8 March 2023

ECB’s Vasle: Expect Further Rate Hikes After March

By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Boštjan Vasle reiterated on Wednesday that he expected rate hikes to continue after the central bank’s upcoming meeting in March.

8 March 2023

Exclusive: ECB Insider: Slowing to 25BP But Hiking for Longer Could Be a Compromise

- ECB insider: Reducing pace of hiking post-March to 25bp the correct strategy
- ECB insider: Others will oppose post-March slowdown of tightening pace
- ECB insider: ‘Very little discussion that we are now in restrictive territory’
- ECB insider: Some Council members will see the ECB as no longer very far from the terminal rate

8 March 2023

Ecb’s Knot Says Rate Hikes To Continue ‘for Quite Some Time’ After March

By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot said on Tuesday that rate hikes should continue for quite some time beyond the ECB's monetary policy meeting next week.

8 March 2023

Central Bank of Ireland Revises Inflation Forecast Downwards, But Warns of Sticky Core

By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The Central Bank of Ireland on Wednesday said that domestic inflation was set to be lower than previously expected in 2023 but that underlying inflation pressures looked set to persist.

8 March 2023

Visco Calls for ECB To Remain Cautious, Criticises Colleagues' Eagerness to Hike

By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said on Wednesday that monetary policy would have to move cautiously to protect financial stability and the fragile economy.

8 March 2023

ECB’s de Cos: Generalised Fiscal Impulse Would Force Stronger Monetary Policy Reaction

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank would have to react more strongly with monetary policy if fiscal policy were to be generally expansionary, Governing Council member Pablo Hernández de Cos said Tuesday.

7 March 2023

ECB: Long- and Medium-Term Consumer Inflation Expectations Post Decline

By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – According to the European Central Bank’s Consumer Expectations Survey results for January 2023, released on Tuesday, Eurozone citizens’ perceptions of inflation have declined across multiple time horizons.

7 March 2023

ECB’s de Cos: If Risk of Second-Round Effects Materialises, May Need More Monetary Tightening

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank might need to tighten the monetary policy screws yet further if the risk of second-round effects, already heightened due to persistently elevated inflation, were to materialise, Governing Council member Pablo Hernández de Cos said Tuesday.

7 March 2023

ECB’s Holzmann: Expect 50BP Rate Hikes at Next Four Governing Council Meetings

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank will likely need to counter undiminished core inflation with 50bp rate hikes at each of the Governing Council’s next four monetary policy meetings, according to Council member Robert Holzmann on Monday.

6 March 2023

ECB Insight: Comments by Centeno Underscore Obstacles to Large Rate Hikes Post-March

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Past the habitual dovishness, other, at first glance less substantive comments published Monday in an interview with European Central Bank Governing Council member Mário Centeno may actually offer the more interesting insight into the challenge the ECB will face in maintaining the current pace of monetary tightening beyond March.

6 March 2023

ECB’s Lane: Core Inflation Momentum Remains Strong, With Wages Soon a Main Driver

By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Philip Lane said on Monday that the momentum of core inflation in the euro area was not showing signs of declining.

6 March 2023

ECB’s Centeno: Lower Inflation Forecasts Should Be Taken Into Account After March

By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Mário Centeno said on Monday that lower inflation forecasts should be taken into account as the central bank decides on the future path of interest rates after its March meeting.

6 March 2023

ECB’s Lagarde: Eurozone Core Inflation Set To Remain Sticky In Near Term

By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Sunday that euro area core inflation was set to remain sticky in the immediate term.

5 March 2023

They Said It About the Policy Outlook - Recent Comments of ECB Governing Council Members

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is a compendium of comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members related to ECB monetary policy. We include only comments made since the Governing Council meeting of February 2.

3 March 2023