By Xavier D’Arcy – SINTRA, Portugal (Econostream) – The European Central Bank is not considering a pause in its hiking cycle at the moment, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday, noting that there was not enough evidence of a turnround in core inflation to warrant a stop to rate hikes.
28 June 2023
- ECB insiders express unwillingness to court financial instability needlessly
- ECB insiders suggest that passive run-off of balance sheet could prove sufficient for now
- ECB insiders indicate readiness to leave PEPP forward guidance in its current form
- ECB insiders focused on interest rates rather than other instruments in toolkit
By Xavier D’Arcy – SINTRA, Portugal (Econostream) - Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 27 June with Mário Centeno, Governor of Banco de Portugal and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank:
28 June 2023
- Centeno: ‘We better be careful about producing substantial statements about the future’
- Centeno: Announcing decisions ahead of time ‘goes against the strategy’
- Centeno: Governing Council ‘will speak in July’ about what to do
- Centeno: 2024 rate cut ‘compatible with a reduction of inflation to 2% in the medium term’
- Centeno: ECB staff projections ‘may be optimistic in terms of GDP’ and ‘pessimistic on inflation’
- Centeno: ‘How can I be stressed about a projection that says that in 2025 […] inflation is 2.2%?’
- Centeno: Baseline ECB scenario is ‘end to the inflationary process without […] major disruptions’
- Centeno: Pass-through from rate hikes ‘may come abruptly’
- Centeno: Eurozone labour market ‘much more fluid’
By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Philip Lane said on Wednesday that a rate hike in July was reasonable, but that it would be important to look at data before deciding what to do in September.
28 June 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 26 June with Mārtiņš Kazāks, Governor of Latvijas Banka and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank:
28 June 2023
- Kazāks: PEPP reinvestment important for flexibility reasons
- Kazāks: No need for any changes to the PEPP reinvestment at the moment
- Kazāks: Balance sheet adjustment ‘very much driven by the TLTROs’
- Kazāks: Fiscal policy must become less expansionary, or rates will have to go up even more
- Kazāks: Rates should stay high ‘as long as inflation is not significantly undershooting the target’
- Kazāks: Expectation of rate cut in 1H 2024 ‘inconsistent with the baseline macro scenario’
- Kazāks: ‘We will not be done, in my view, in July, and there will be more rate hikes necessary’
- Kazāks: ‘If necessary, we can take a pause and then return to rate hikes’
- Kazāks: ‘The risks of doing too little are higher than the risks of doing too much’
- Kazāks: Lagarde ‘very skilful in getting almost all of us behind every one of our decisions’
By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank is confident of achieving a soft landing, though the return to price stability will not be without pain, Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday.
28 June 2023
By Xavier D’Arcy – SINTRA, Portugal (Econostream) – The European Central Bank will likely keep the door open to further hikes rather than announce an end to its tightening cycle, due to uncertainty surrounding the persistence of inflation, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Tuesday.
27 June 2023
- ECB Insiders: Two of Three Surveyed Inclined to Hike Anew in September
- ECB Insiders Reject Market Expectations of Initial Easing Move in 1H 2024
- ECB Insiders Want to Leave Interest Rates at Terminal Level for Some Time
- ECB Insiders: July Rate Hike More or Less a Given
By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The Bank for International Settlements said on Sunday that monetary policy still faced a difficult task in getting inflation under control, with the final phase of disinflation likely to prove the most difficult.
26 June 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus on Monday reiterated that he would not be surprised if the ECB discussed a further tightening of monetary policy at the September meeting.
26 June 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos on Sunday said that the end of rate hikes was not far and that whether it would be reached in July depended on incoming information, in particular with respect to underlying inflation.
25 June 2023
By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said on Saturday that although many of his fellow governors were pushing for hikes in the autumn, he was awaiting further data before making a decision.
24 June 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is an overview of recent comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members. We include only comments made since the Governing Council meeting of 15 June, but earlier comments can still be seen in versions up to that of 9 June .
23 June 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank will have to tighten monetary policy again next month, but what happens after that cannot be predicted, ECB Governing Council member Pablo Hernández de Cos said Friday.
23 June 2023
By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Current Eurozone labour market developments do not constitute a wage-price spiral, though they might slow down the return of inflation to the European Central Bank’s 2% target, ECB Executive Board member Philip Lane said on Friday.
23 June 2023
By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank is set to miss its inflation target as things stand, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said on Thursday.
22 June 2023
By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank should be wary not to give up too early in the fight against currently high inflation, even if a side effect of monetary policy tightening is some economic pain, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said on Wednesday.
21 June 2023
By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank should pay heed to the risk of a wage-price spiral in the context of record labour market tightness, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said on Wednesday.
21 June 2023