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ECB’s Schnabel: We Assume Inflation Will Reach Its High Point in November

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Euro area inflation will peak this month and then slowly go back down in 2022, European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said Monday.

ECB Insight: Lagarde Interview: Some PR, a Few Policy Insights and a Reprimand

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The interview that came out late Friday with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde was not devoid of insights beyond the probably futile attempt to bolster her standing among citizens of the euro area’s largest member economy, not too delighted with the ECB to begin with and now also up in arms about rates of inflation last seen almost three decades ago.

Banque de France Deputy Governor: Right Time to Exit Soon from Exceptional Policy Measures

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The time is right for the European Central Bank to exit from pandemic-related emergency measures, though without quickly abandoning a very accommodative stance, Banque de France First Deputy Governor Denis Beau said Thursday.

ECB Insight: Policy Sequencing Inversion Not Base Case But Still Not Excluded

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Although European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel in a speech earlier this month argued in favour of orthodox monetary policy sequencing as a way of limiting unwanted distributional side effects, Econostream continues to think, based on further conversations with insiders, that policy sequencing inversion is not excluded, depending on how the inflation outlook evolves.

ECB Meeting Account Confirms Preoccupation With Inflation and Differing Views

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The account of the European Central Bank’s policy meeting of 27-28 October, released by the ECB on Thursday, confirmed the preoccupation among Governing Council members with inflation and made clear that opinion differed, even if the general view was of an improved medium-term outlook.

German Bundesbank: Pandemic May Have Increased Danger of Underestimating Financial Stability Risks

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Although the financial system functioned well during the pandemic, existing vulnerabilities mounted and the risk of underestimating threats may have further increased, the German Bundesbank said on Thursday in its financial stability report for 2021.

ECB Brief: Weidmann: PEPP Flexibility Should Remain Reserved for Special Situations

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidmann on Wednesday spoke out strongly about inflation risks and in support of the timely withdrawal of monetary accommodation.

ECB Insight: From Panetta, Another Impassioned Plea for at Least No Less, Maybe More

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta’s speech on Wednesday confirmed – not for the first time- that surprisingly little has changed about his fundamental opposition to a withdrawal of ECB policy support.

ECB’s Panetta Sees Little Chance of Sustained Inflation Above 2% in the Medium Term

By David Barwick – PARIS (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta on Wednesday argued for continuing to deploy monetary policy to safeguard the recovery and restore pre-pandemic trend economic growth, a condition in his view for price stability, and said he saw ‘little chance of sustained inflation above 2% in the medium term.’

ECB Insight: Waning Concern at the ECB About Hitting 33% Issuer Limit

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank insiders are growing less concerned about the possibility of asset purchases running up against the 33% limit on the share of individual countries’ outstanding debt the ECB can possess, based on recent conversations with Econostream.

ECB’s Makhlouf: If Current Trends Persist, Case for Policy Action Becomes Stronger

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf on Tuesday said that monetary policy should sit tight for the moment, but that a continuation of current inflation developments would strengthen the case to act.

ECB Insight: Schnabel Hawkish on Growth, Inflation; Sceptical of Asset Buys’ Cost-Benefit Ratio

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Today’s interview by the European Central Bank’s Isabel Schnabel offered a broad and insightful view of how the most hawkish member of the Executive Board sees various key aspects of monetary policy just three weeks before one of the most important recent meetings of the Governing Council.

ECB Insight: Post-PEPP APP Purchases of Greece’s Sovereign Debt a Very Open Question

By David Barwick – Frankfurt (Econostream) – Anyone ready to succumb to the impression that post-pandemic inclusion of Greece in the European Central Bank’s asset purchase programme (APP) is a done deal might want to consider that central bankers are as familiar as everyone else with the old dictum not to say anything if one has nothing nice to say.

ECB’s Villeroy: Should Keep as Much PEPP Flexibility as Possible

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank should preserve as much as possible of the flexibility of its pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) after the PEPP ends in March, Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau said Monday.

German Bundesbank Sees German Economy Treading Water in 3Q, Inflation over 3% for Some Time

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The German economy is likely to put growth on hold for the moment, while consumer price inflation would remain above 3% for months to come, the German Bundesbank said on Monday in its latest monthly report.

ECB Insight: Lagarde Speech Strikes New, More Optimistic Inflation Tone

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Friday warned of the negative growth impact from the developments driving high inflation, but the clearly more important takeaway was her new optimism about the possibility of inflation eventually getting to the point where the ECB could start raising interest rates.

EXCLUSIVE: Sweden NDO Head of Funding: Reduced Issuance to Hamper Liquidity

By David Barwick – Frankfurt (Econostream) – The Swedish National Debt Office accepts that with the government expecting a budget surplus in each of the next two years, its reduced debt issuance will contribute to less liquidity, according to Johan Bergström, Head of Funding at the NDO.

ECB’s Weidmann: Inflation May Not Fall Below Target over Medium Term

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said Wednesday.

ECB Insight: Uncertainty About Inflation Outlook Leaves ECB Insiders Wondering, Too

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The crucial element of next month’s monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank Governing Council is the inflation outlook. As Eurosystem staff gear up to make their best guesstimate amid great uncertainty, various insiders shared with Econostream reasonably similar, though still quite tentative views about medium-term prospects for price pressures in the area.

ECB Hawk-Dove Ranking: Holzmann Joins Weidmann and Knot at Hawkish End of Spectrum