ECB’s Escrivá: A 25BP Cut Next Week Is ‘The Most Likely Scenario’
22 January 2025

By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member José Luis Escrivá said on Wednesday that the most likely outcome of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on January 30 was a 25bp cut.
In an interview with Bloomberg TV, Escrivá, who heads the Banco de España, said that ‘the market expects a further cut of 25bp’ and that ‘[i]t feels like this is the most likely scenario.’
Hard data and new information proved to be crucial in a situation of high uncertainty, along with a meeting-by-meeting approach, he said.
‘There is a lot of uncertainty, two-sided, but the incoming information is confirming the central scenario, which is one of gradual convergence of inflation to 2% and of recovery which is not particularly impressive’, he indicated.
Regarding US President Donald Trump's potential policies, Escrivá said that these were ‘not particularly growth-enhancing not only for Europe, but not even for the US.’
These policies could be inflationary for the US, but it was ‘less clear’ if there would be spillovers in the rest of the world, he said.
‘Uncertainty is high and that’s the reason why we are data-dependent’, he said. ‘To retain full optionality is more important than ever at the present juncture’.
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