ECB’s Vujčić: End of Trade Uncertainty After July 9 ‘Not Guaranteed’

1 July 2025

By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujčić said on Tuesday that it was not guaranteed that trade uncertainty would come to an end after the July 9 negotiations deadline.

In an interview with CNBC, Vujčić, who heads the Croatian National Bank, said that despite indications that the euro area was now at the end of the disinflation process following several shocks, ‘there are of course possibilities that we are faced with new shocks in the future.’

Trade was still a source of high uncertainty, he said.

‘We hope that by July 9 we have no more uncertainty [on that front], but it is not guaranteed’, he said. ‘We have to see how things play out.’

Were geopolitical tensions to continue, that would lead to more global fragmentation and supply chain disruptions, which could spur inflation, he said.

‘Defence spending – which will increase in Europe, the decision has been made – that will also contribute somewhat to the inflationary pressures’, he said.

The ECB had to stay vigilant on deviations of the inflation target in both directions, he said.

‘However we also emphasise it is a medium-term target, so we can allow oscillations around the 2% in this medium-term, because it’s impossible to pin down inflation to exactly always 2%’, he added.