By Marta Vilar – SINTRA, Portugal (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said on Tuesday that the ECB should not be too complacent despite its presently good situation. 

In an interview with Bloomberg TV on the sidelines of the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2025 in Sintra, Nagel, who heads the Deutsche Bundesbank, said that the ECB was currently in ‘calm waters.’ 

‘It doesn’t mean we should be too complacent’, he said. ‘We are at our target, this is really good news.’ 

After the summer break, the ECB would have to focus on the new September macroeconomic projections, he said.  

‘Over the last couple of weeks we saw a lot of volatility in the energy markets … this is a good indication that we have to be cautious’, he said. 

Asked about how high the bar for an autumn move was, Nagel refused to define a specific bar and said he was data-dependent. 

‘We have to be prepared for everything, so I will see what the data will tell me in autumn and then we will see’, he said. 

Nagel said interest rates were now at neutral territory, despite some calculations pointing towards a number slightly above or below 2%. 

Many factors should come together in order to deliver the next move, he said, not only a hit to growth.  

‘I will not speculate which direction we are going but I believe now we are rather comfortable at 2%, so we can check what will come over the next couple of weeks and then take a decision’, he said. 

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