ECB: Consumers’ Inflation Expectations Down; Economic Growth Expectations Unchanged

2 April 2024

By Aurėja Bobelytė – VILNIUS (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s consumer expectations survey, released Tuesday, showed inflation expectations over the next 12 months down in February, while expectations for economic growth 12 months ahead remained unchanged.

Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months came in at 3.1% after 3.3%, which the ECB was the 'lowest level since the start of Russia’s unjustified war against Ukraine in February 2022.'

Consumers' expectations of inflation in three years' time was unchanged at 2.5%, while their perception of inflation over the 12 months prior to the survey decreased for the fifth time in a row, reaching 5.5% after 6.0% the pervious month.

According to the ECB, consumer expectations for nominal income growth were up to 1.4% in February from 1.2% in January, while economic growth over the next 12 months was seen at -1.1%, as before. SImilarly, the unemployment rate in 12 months' time was estimated at 10.9%, unchanged from February.

'Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.5%), implying a broadly stable labour market', the ECB commented.