ECB: Consumer Expectations of Future Inflation Increased 0.5% In September

8 November 2023

By Isabel Teles – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s consumer expectations survey, released Wednesday, showed that medium expectations of inflation for the next 12 months increased from 3.5% in August to 4% in September.

The expectations for inflation three years ahead, however, remained unchanged at 2.5%.

‘Inflation expectations, particularly at the three-year horizon, remained well below the perceived past inflation rate. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months increased’, the ECB reported.

Regarding the perceived inflation over the previous 12 months, there was only a slight move, from 7.9% in August to 8% in September.

Consumers were less optimistic about economic growth. In September, the expectations for the next 12 months fell to -1.2%, against -0.8% in August.

The survey, based on some 14,000 responses from Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy and the Netherlands, showed overall expectations for nominal income increase over the next 12 months was 1.2%, the same as August.

The expectation for nominal spending growth also remained somewhat stable compared to August, rising from 3.3% to 3.4%.

Future unemployment rate increased from 11.1% to 11.4% and was a little higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (11.1%), thus ‘implying a broadly stable labour market’, the ECB said.

‘The lowest income quintile continued reporting the highest expected and perceived unemployment rates’, the ECB said.

According to the survey, September registered the highest level of expectations for mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead since the survey began, rising from 5.2% to 5.4%.

‘Perceived access to credit over the previous 12 months tightened noticeably compared with August, as did expectations for access to credit over the next 12 months, with both reaching the tightest levels since the survey began’, the ECB said.